Happy New Year
and a Prosperous
2014 to You All!
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Margin Debts at Fantasy Levels...
Doug Short has just update his Margin Debt chart (See it here)
It shows, that the Margin Debt is at the 2000 Tech Bubble level. We might not have seen the top yet, but this simply can't end well...
I don't say the profits should be booked here, but stops need to be in place, because the reaction time will be very short once this rally tilts over into a decline.
EUR/AUD - Has wave 5 peaked at 1.5597?
Is wave 5 finally in place at 1.5597?
A break below 1.5286 will indicate, that will be the case a call for a much deeper correction towards 1.4072 and may be lower.
However, as long as minor support at 1.5414 and more importantly support at 1.5286 protects the downside we could see a move slightly higher towards 1.5759 maybe as an ending diagonal. Only time will tell what the outcome will be.
EUR/USD - Is wave E done at 1.3894?
With the break above 1.3832 we knew, that wave E could not be in place and that a new higher top was needed and we have seen a rally to 1.3894 and here we are Again in the same dilemma. Is wave E done at 1.3894 or was that only wave a of a new a-b-c correction higher towards 1.4247?
As long as support at 1.3655 protects the downside I will give the upside the benefit of the doubt and look for a new recovery to above 1.3894 for a rally towards 1.4247. However, if we do see a break below 1.3655 the pendulum swings in favor of an important top already in place at 1.3894.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 31 - 2013
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 145.69
R2: 145.17
R3: 144.95
Current Spot: 144.72
S1: 144.55
S2: 144.37
S3: 143.85
Technical Summary:
My expectation of a rally to 145.19 worked well, as we saw a top just 2 pips below at 145.17. I will now be looking for a break below minor support at 144.55, which will confirm a decline to at least 143.85. However, to confirm that we have seen an important top at 145.69 we need a break below 143.53. As long as important support at 143.53 protects the downside, we need to give the upside the benefit of the doubt by looking for one last rally above 145.69 once this decline is over.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6924
R2: 1.6877
R1: 1.6807
Current Spot: 1.6789
S1: 1.6747
S2: 1.6674
S3: 1.6625
Technical Summary:
As I said yesterday a break below 1.6807 will force me to change my count slightly. The break below 1.6807 told us, that blue wave v of the expanding diagonal ended at 1.6996 and we should now be looking for a correction towards 1.6569, before the next rally can be expected.
However, I have a bearish alternate count (see the chart below), which we have to consider as a serious possibility. We might only just have seen the top of a very complex b wave at 1.6996 and wave c lower is now developing for a decline towards 1.5793.
No matter which of the two scenarios, that proves to be correct, we should be looking for a decline over the coming days.
Monday, December 30, 2013
Crude Oil - Is wave 4 done?
We have now seen a test of the 38.2% corrective target. The resistance-line of the Elliott channel has been tested and divergence is Building, all indicating a top should be nearby.
However, as long as support at 98.65 protects the downside the bulls are in control of this Market. Only a break below support at 98.65 confirms that wave 4 has ended and wave 5 taken over for a decline to below 91.15.
PAL vs. EUR/CHF - Look alikes...
PAL - North American Palladium Ltd.
EUR/CHF
Eric asked me of my opinion of PAL (North American Palladium Ltd.) I have not made an Elliott wave count on the charts, but the chart of EUR/CHF will give you a pretty good idea of whats in store for PAL in the months ahead.
Of cause it doesn't have to be an exact copy of EUR/CHF, but then the outcome till now have been pretty much that.
So expect a move closer to 1.00 followed by a prolonged sideways consolidation before the next rally higher.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 30 - 2013
Daily chart
8 hourly chart
EUR/JPY:
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 146.96
R2: 145.69
R1: 145.19
Current Spot: 144.77
S1: 144.55
S2: 144.37
S3: 144.01
Technical Summary:
We saw an extended rally on Friday, in a very thin Market, with a high at 146.96, which well could mark the top of wave v of 5. If this is the case, we should see a short term rally towards 146.19 followed by a powerful decline towards at least 143.06 and possibly even lower towards 141.73. However, the extension we saw on Friday could have changed the count to a slightly more bullish count, where wave iii of 5 just ended at 146.96, which means we still need wave four and five of 5. If this is the case, then wave iv is developing for a move first higher to 146.19 and then a decline towards at least 142.96 and more likely lower towards 141.26. In both cases we should be looking for a decline, but once we are near 141.00 the outcome of the two counts becomes totally different. A clear break below 140.95 will indicate wave v of 5 did end at 146.96, while a recovery from 141.26 will indicate we only saw wave iii at 146.96
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.7046
R2: 1.6996
R1: 1.6955
Current Spot: 1.6875
S1: 1.6856
S2: 1.6807
S3: 1.6748
Technical Summary:
The clear break above 1.6869 indicates, that blue wave v of the expanded flat correction ended at 1.6807 and a new series of waves one's and two's is developing for the next powerful rally higher towards 1.6996 and higher towards 1.7239. However, a break below 1.6807 will shift the count, so blue wave v ended at 1.6996 and a correction towards 1.6569 is developing, before the next powerful rally should be expected.
As long as support at 1.6807 protects the downside I will give the upside the benefit of the doubt.
Friday, December 27, 2013
Elliott wave analysis of DJI; EUR/USD and Copper
My long term target at 16.450 has been tested and slightly exceeded. As long as support at 16,221 protects the downside we could see an extension higher towards 16,820, but no matter whether we will see an extension or not an important long term top should be imminent and wave E of the major expanded triangle ready to take over.
The strong rally above 1.3750 and more importantly the strong break above the channel resistance-line is of concern, but only a break above 1.3811 will invalidate the above count and only a break above 1.3832 will indicate, that wave E of the major triangle hasn't terminated yet and more upside towards 1.4247 is needed.
Is currently testing very strong triple resistance near 3.45. I don't think this resistance will be broken and will be looking for renewed downside pressure for a break below 3.12 for a continuation lower towards at least 2.64.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 27 - 2013
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 145.62
R2: 145.13
R1: 144.73
Current Spot: 144.49
S1: 144.24
S2: 143.61
S3: 143.29
Technical Summary:
Trying to pick the top has proven to be a hard nut to crack. However, the upside should be limited from here. We will likely not see more than 144.73 tested, but to indicate, that the top is in place a break below 143.61 is needed. that said, only a break below 140.98 confirms, that the top of wave 5 is in place and that a major correction towards at least 124.95 id developing.
Short term I will be looking for a move closer to resistance at 144.73 as long as support at 144.24 protects the downside.
EUR/NZD:
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.7007
R2: 1.6960
R1: 1.6873
Current Spot: 1.6839
S1: 1.6803
S2: 1.6748
S3: 1.6708
Technical Summary:
Resistance at 1.6869 has been tested (the high has been 1.6873). Look for a correction in green wave ii towards at least 1.6708. That said, if support at 1.6803 protects the downside for a direct and powerful break above 1.6873 I will have to change my count slightly indicating, that blue wave v and green wave i ended already at 1.6808 and green wave iii is developing for a rally higher towards at least 1.6960 and more likely closer to 1.7239.
A break below 1.6803 confirms a correction in green wave ii towards at least 1.6708 and likely deeper towards 1.6569 before the next rally higher.
Thursday, December 26, 2013
EUR/AUD - One more high needed to end the larger five wave rally?
I'm looking for one last new high just above 1.5575 to end the five wave rally from the 1.1605 low. However, if the 1.55755 holds for a break below 1.5286 we already has seen the top of wave 5 at 1.5575 and a major correction towards 1.4087 is developing.
EUR/USD - Is wave ii still ongoing?
We did see a break below minor support at 1.3665, but there was no follow through, which opens the possibility of a new high near 1.3750 as wave c of ii as long as support at 1.3662 protects the downside. However, a direct break below 1.3662 indicates, that wave iii lower towards 1.3416 is developing.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 26 - 2013
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 143.92
R2: 143.57
R1: 143.46
Current spot: 143.38
S1: 143.00
S2: 142.46
S3: 141.86 - Important support. Break below here confirms the top.
Technical Summary:
The target at 143.24 has been hit. An important top should be imminent. The first indication of the top being in place is a break below 143.00 and the top will be confirmed upon a break below 141.86.
Short term we could see a slight extension higher towards 143.46 and 143.57 as long as support at 143.15 and more importantly as long as support at 143.00 protects the downside, but a break below 143.00 will be the first good indication, that a top is in place.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6869
R2: 1.6808
R1: 1.6766
Current Spot: 1.6761
S1: 1.6731
S2: 1.6681
S2: 1.6661
Technical Summary:
It finally seems as we are ready to challenge the upside for a test of resistance at 1.6869 to end the expanding diagonal. Once the target at 1.6869 is hit, look for a correction towards 1.6569 before the next powerful rally takes over for a rally higher towards 1.7239.
That said, we must be aware of a possible much more bullish scenario, where the expanding leading diagonal ended already at 1.6808 and the coming rally will be a much more powerful wave iii rally, that will break right above 1.6869 and move higher towards 1.7239.
Short term support at 1.6681 and more importantly support at 1.6661 should protect the downside for the break above 1.6808 confirming a test of resistance at 1.6869.
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Facebook - Is close to its first wave V target.
Please see my post from November 7 here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/11/elliott-wave-analysis-of-dji-facebook.html
The correction from 54.78 didn't quite make Down to 42.65. Wave IV bottomed already at 44.53 and wave V is developing nicely. Actually the first possible target for wave V is just ahead at 58.70, but looking at the structure I would expect a move closer to 63.09 and maybe even higher towards 67.48. That said, we have to be aware, that we now have a clear five wave rally from the 17.55 low and a top could be found at any time now.
EUR/USD - Look for a break below 1.3665 to confirm wave iii is developing.
We saw minor support protect the downside for a move closer to strong resistance in the 1.3718 - 1.3740 zone. A break below support at 1.3665 is still needed to confirm, that wave ii is over and that a new powerful decline towards at least 1.3523 and more likely down to 1.3408 is developing.
As long as support at 1.3665 protects the downside we could see a correction closer to 1.3740, but with the test of 1.3717 all requirements are fulfilled.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 24 - 2013
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 143.24
R2: 142.89
R1: 142.74
Current Spot: 142.60
S1: 142.42
S2: 142.14
S3: 141.86 - Important support - Break below indicates a top being in place.
Technical Summary:
As resistance at 142.49 was broken we knew, that a new high above 142.89 is needed to finish this rally.
Short term expect support at 142.42 to protect the downside for the last rally higher towards 143.24 where an important top should be found. From 143.24 or upon a break below 141.86 a major correction towards at least 124.95 should develop. This correction will be the biggest we have seen, both time- and pricewise since the 94.10 low.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6869
R2: 1.6808
R1: 1.6739
Current Spot: 1.6692
S1: 1.6672
S2: 1.6630
S3: 1.6597
Technical Summary:
Nothing much is going on with this currency pair, right now. I'm still looking for a rally higher towards 1.6869 to end the leading diagonal. Once finished we should look for a small correction before the next powerful rally higher.
Short term expect support at 1.6672 will protect the downside for the rally higher towards 1.6869. Only a break below 1.6672 will delay the upside pressure for a decline towards 1.6569 before renewed upside pressure takes over again.
Monday, December 23, 2013
Nikkei 225 - All we need is a new high just above 15,942.60
We need at least a break above 15,942.60 to have a five wave rally. Ideally we will see a rally towards the 38.2% corrective target at 17,416, but it is not necessary to reach 17,416 in the first go, so be aware, that once we have broken above 15,942.60 nothing more is needed. That said, I would at least expect a rally towards 16.416 and possibly even towards 17,416, but only time will show.
USD/JPY - A major top in place?
We are in the very last part of the major rally from the 75.56 low. We saw a major triangle as wave 4 and triangles always tell us, that the next move in direction of the trend will be the last in that sequence.
Since the wave 4 low at 96.53 we have seen a nice five wave rally, which means all requirements for this rally is fulfilled and so are all requirements for the rally from the 75.56 low. That said, I expect minor support at 103.76 will protect the downside for one last rally in wave v of 5 higher towards 107.05. However a break below 103.76 is the first warning, that we already could have seen the top at 104.64 and a break below 103.19 will confirms the top and that a major correction towards at least 96.53 has begun.
EUR/USD - Is wave ii in place?
We could have seen a small wave ii end at 1.3709, but to confirm that, we need a break below 1.3665 and more importantly a break below 1.3632, which would call for a continuation lower towards at least 1.3523 and likely even lower towards 1.3408.
That said, as long as support at 1.3665 protects the downside we could see more correction towards the 1.3718 - 1.3740 area before the downside pressure returns.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 23 - 2013
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 142.89
R2: 142.74
R1: 142.49
Current Spot: 142.36
S1: 142.25
S2: 141.86
S3: 141.41
Technical Summary:
Do we have an important top in place at 142.89 or are we just consolidating for one last rally higher towards 143.25? It is still an open question. No matter what the outcome will be, we are in the very last part of the rally of the June 24 - 2012 low at 94.10. That said we do need a break below important short term support at 140.94 to confirm, that the top is in place and that a major correction has taken over for a decline towards at least 124.92 and likely lower towards 118.71.
Short term I will be looking for resistance at 142.49, which ideally will protect the upside for a break below support at 142.08 indicating a decline towards 141.41 and lower towards 140.94. However, a break above 142.49 will give us a new test of resistance at 142.89 on the way towards 143.24.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6808
R2: 1.6749
R1: 1.6708
Current Spot: 1.6665
S1: 1.6630
S2: 1.6597
S3: 1.6569
Technical Summary:
Not much is happening here. I'm still looking for one last rally higher towards 1.6869 to finish the leading diagonal. Long term I'm looking for much higher levels, but we need to be patient and wait for this holding pattern to give away.
Short termlook for support at 1.6630 to protect the downside for a break above 1.6708 and more importantly a break above 1.6749 confirming a new test of 1.6808 on the way towards 1.6869.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Crude Oil - Be ready for wave 5 lower...
The break below 96.31 was never sustained (small bear trap), which has kept wave moving closer to the 38.2% corrective target at 100.04. However, we should be close to the top of wave 4 and see wave 5 of C take over soon for a confirmed break below 96.22 for a continuation lower towards the ideal wave 5 target at 87.32.
EUR/USD - Channel support has been broken.
The break below the channel support-line, does add strength to my count suggesting, that wave 2 did indeed terminate at 1.3811, and that we are now in the early part of an impulsive wave 3 decline. If this is the case, we should expect correction to be small, as the downside pressure mounts.
Short term I will be looking for a small correction towards 1.3694, before the next downside pressure takes out support at 1.3619 and more importantly support at 1.3524 confirming a new test of 1.3295 on the way lower towards at least 1.2941.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 20 - 2013
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 143.24
R2: 142.89
R1: 142.59
Current Spot: 142.38
S1: 142.14
S2: 141.86
S3: 141.41
Technical Summary:
It is still an open question whether we have seen an important top at 142.89 or we need more upside action, before the top is finally in place. To confirm, that we have an important top, we still need a break below 140.91.
Short term look for minor resistance at 142.59 likely protecting the upside for a break below 142.14 and more importantly a break below 141.86, which confirms a new test of important support at 140.91, but only below here confirms, that the top is in place. However, even if we do get a break above 142.89, the upside progress should be very limited, likely we will not see more than 143.24 tested.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6756
R2: 1.6694
R1: 1.6659
Current Spot: 1.6626
S1: 1.6597
S2: 1.6569
S3: 1.6517
Technical Summary:
I'm still looking for the final rally in blue wave v higher towards 1.6869 to end the leading diagonal, as my preferred count. Once 1.6869 have been tested we should see a correction lower towards 1.6569. That said, we have to be aware of the possibility of blue wave v already being in place with the high set at 1.6807. If this is the case, the next rally will break right through resistance at 1.6869 for a continuation towards 1.7239. Only time will tell, which scenario is the correct one.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
IBEX 35 - Expanded flat or a running triangle correction?
Manuel asked me for my opinion on the Spanish IBEX 35.
I'm looking for a rally in wave C of an expanded flat correction. As a minimum target for wave C I will be looking for 12,474. That said we have to be aware of the possibility of this being a running triangle, if this Count proves correct, that would only call for a rally towards 11,074 before lower in wave D.
AUD/USD - Close to a bottom?
Is close to the bottom of wave 1 of C lower. As long as resistance at 0.8970 protects the upside I will be looking for a continuation lower towards 0.8779 and maybe even 0.8688 before wave 1 is finally done. From the 0.8688 - 0.8779 area we should see a correction higher towards at least 0.9137.
DJI - Miracles still happens...
Now we know miracles still happens...
Please see my post from yesterday here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/12/dji-up-or-down.html
The break above 16,058 told us, that the uptrend was still ongoing and that a new test of the high at 16,174.51 was to be expected, as the trend continues higher towards the long standing target near 16,450 (see my post from March 26 - 2012 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/03/dow-jones-industrial-index-interesting.html).
As I said yesterday, there are no more bears left and this rally should be short lived. Look for a break below 15,703 to indicate that the top of wave D is indeed in place.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)