Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - My fear, that the break above 145.15 was a weak break was confirmed yesterday, by the breaking back below 144.66. We are now back in no-mans-land and going... Up?... Down?
Nothing is clear at this point. We might have seen a truncation at 145.46, which would call for much furthe downside, but the decline from 145.46 is not convincing, which is way I haven't given up entirely, that we could see more upside pressure, but this is no optimal situation and trying to count this short term mess is a mess.
Regard the current price-action as a boiler where pressure is rising fast. When the steam is finally released the move will be fast and furious....

Gold - Failling to break below 1,781.65 set us up for a slight new high at 1,839.40, but the minor new high was followed by a negativ divergence. In the bigger perspective we also have a possible "Hidden Divergence", which is when the indicator is at a new high, but the price is not. The kind of signal normally is the set-up of a very powerful move. I'm still looking for a move below the pink dotted line to confirm the next (powerful) move lower.

Crude Oil - Also regained a new high and most likely is headed for the Pitch Forks resistance line near the 90 level, which is also where we find the 61.8% retacement level of wave iii. Expect this level to protect the upside for a break below 86.48 to confirm the next leg lower towards the target near the 72 area.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We haven't seen much forward progress since we broke out to the upside. It might just be a consolidation before the next rally higher towards 146.96, but it could as easily be a warning, that there is no real power in this break, therefor any break back below 144.66 will be a warning that more downside is to come.

Gold broke back below support at 1,794, which indicates, that minor wave b or ii is done and focus should be to the downside. I'm now looking for a break below 1,775 to confirm the next leg lower towards support at 1,702 and any break here will point down towards the 1,500 area.

Crude oil is still working it's way slightly higher and sideways. I count the rally from 79.25 as a minor wave ii and are looking for wave iii of red wave v down. I'm still looking for a decline towards the target near 72. A break below 83.08 confirms that we are under way in purple wave iii down.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We finally got the break out and to the upside, which has been my preferred outcome. This should be the last leg up in the ending diagonal, which began at 118.75.
Ideally we should see a new high above 149.39, but there will be serious resistance near the 148 area.
Short term support at 145 should protect the downside, but only a break below 144.66 will indicate a failure breakout and indicate a decline towards 143.25 and more importantly 142.25

Gold - The rally from 1,702.44 has slightly bigger than first expected and the rally above 1,823 does indicate, that we could be looking at a flat correction, which would call for a move higher to at least the 1,854 - 1,866 area and possible even 1,911.09 before we will see the next leg lower. If we are looking at a flat correction support at 1,794 should not be broken. A break below here before a break above 1,838 will indicate that the next leg lower has already begun.

Crude Oil - Not much to add here. We are going side ways and could easily do that longer yet untill we meet the Pitchfork resistance-line. The main trend is down and a break below 83.11 will add pressure to the downside, while a break below 81.40 will confirm that the next leg lower towards the 72 area has begun.

Elliott wave on Gold

We saw a minor break below support at 1,719.46, but nothing long lasting and we are now looking at the expected correction towards the 1,795 - 1,815 area from where I expect the next decline to set in.

A break above 1,823 (not expected) will tell us, that we are looking at a flat correction from 1,911.46 and should see a move closer to the 1,911.46 top.

Elliott wave on GOLD and Crude Oil

Gold is in a topping process. Having broken below 1,813 we are now close to testing the next important short term support at 1,719.46, which I would suspect will hold the first test for a correction back to the 1,837 - 1,846 area. However I directe break below 1,719.49 will indicate, that gold is weaker than first anticipated.

Crude oil should be ready for the next decline towards 75.36 and the 72 area longer term. A break below 83.62 confirms that purple wave ii of red wave v is done and purple wave iii down to 75.36 is under way. As long as 83.62 stays firm we could see a new go at the 86.21 area, but it shouldn't be more than a short term delay.

Junk can be nice, but not all the time

Junk bonds has been a very nice trade since March 2009, but everything has its time in the flashlight and the time seems to be up for Junk bonds. As is the case for stocks, this is not the time to be loaded up with in Junk bonds.
As can be seen we have a big diamond top-formation, which has been triggered and calls for a decline to 32.60, but the decline should be much deeper than that.

Leaders in the way down

Dow Jones Transportation

German Dax

US Banking Index

US Housing Index

All these indices is leading the equity market down. All has more downside waiting for them, but the downtrend has been very steep, which would make slightly more consolidation plausible, but down is the way to be focused. Almost everybody is in denial in regards to this down trend and has not yet capitulated.

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - Still nothing new to add. We are locked in the narrow range between 141.85 and 145.17. Go with the break.

Gold is at my target near 1,905. Looking at the structure I think we still are missing one more new high, but for this to happen we can't break below 1,857.20. Any break below 1,857.20 will indicate that the top is in place, but only a break below 1,813 confirms the top for a major decline towards the 1,308 - 1,431 area at least.

Minor purple wave ii of red wave v down is still ongoing. We could see it work its way slightly higher, but should be near the top for a decline below 82.00 to confirm the next move towards at least 75.67 and my red wave v target near 72.00.

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - Still nothing to add here. We are locked up in a range, which is narrowing and sooner or later we will have this solved with a break either way. After having preferred the upside lately I'm now more neutral and will go with whatever way we breaks.

Gold is going vertical and we are closing in fast on my next target near 1,905. One should be very careful at these very lofty areas. These is not buying areas, rather one should consider shorts up here. Believe me Gold will come down and especially after we have begun to see gold rise vertically, that is always a death sentence.

I will admit that I have a more bullish count that is shown above, but this count have the present high as a major wave 3 and calls for a major wave 4, but even this count should see us back to at least the 1,300 area.

Crude Oil - I'm still looking for red wave v to brings us down to the 72 area as wave 1 in the new down trend, which ultimately should take us below the late 2008 low at 32.40. That will end the major A-B-C correction we have been looking at since the major top in mid-July 2008 at 147.27.

DJT new low, waiting for DJI

Yesterday we saw the Dow Jones Trasportation Index hitting new lows since the 5,627.85 high. That might be a clue, that we will soon see the Dow Jones Industrial Index follow suit. that said it could also be a warning, that we are seeing a small positive divergence between the two indicies, calling for a bottom soon. I does not favor the later possibility. Remember we have both a major and a semi-major divergence, when the DJT made a new all-time high, which the DJI did not. In July the DJT made a new high not confirmed by the DJI, which made its high in May.
These two Dow signals flashed all the red lights, that a major change in trend was underway and here we are.

EUR/USD and Gold

EUR/USD - We are still in some kind of no-mans land, But the failuer to break clearly above 145 is of concern. Therefore we must consider the possibility of a truncated c-wave of the final e-leg in the ending diagonal. A break below 141 will raise the odds of this being the case, but only a break below 140.09 will confirm a turn EUR/USD much loower.

Gold is turning into a runaway market. We have a massive overthrow now. The price-action is becoming vertical all the signs of a possible buble building. When the buble blows, and belive me it will blow at some point, it doesn't mean a major collaps of the gold-price, but a substancial correction should be ahead.

As long as support at 1,820 stays firm we can expect a rally towards 1,905 area (be carefull in front of the 1,900 handle). Any break below 1,813 will be the first warning sign, that the top could be in place, but we will need a break below 1,720 to confirm the top.

Gold - Uptrend intact

The break above 1,813.79 proved my count to be wrong and we should now turn fokus towards 1,836 and maybe even closer to 1,900. Actually I have a possible target at 1,905, but I will look very carefully at the price action as we get closer to the 1,900 level.

A break back below and close below 1,813 should be taken as a warning, that the Gold price might be exhausted, but we need a break below 1,720 to call the top.

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - Still not much action in this cross. I'm still looking for a break above 145.35 for a move above 149.39 to end the final e-leg in the ending diagonal, which has been building since the 118.75 low.
Any break below 140.09 will invalidate the bullish call and turn EUR/USD down in a major way.

Gold - I'm still looking for a break below 1,760 soon to confirm a new go at important support at 1,720, but we need a break below here to confirm, that we saw an important top at 1,813.79 and at the same time to activate the S/H/S top.
As we are looking at a minor wave ii we must accept the we can retrace almost all of wave i, but a break above 1,797 will weaken the call for a new test of support at 1,720 soon.

Crude Oil - The very best short term count is, that we are looking at a minor endning diagonal, which has just been activated for a decline towards the 84 - 84.50 area and a break below 84 will confirm that red wave iv is over and call for a decline to 72 in red wave v.

Resistance is at 87 (most likly stop); 88.11 and at 89.97.

Gold - working it's way higher

We have broken above the ideal correction target area, but as can be seen we are "just" back up to the broken resistance-line (back testing), which easily could be the top of purple wave ii, if this is the correct count. To confirm this count we still need a break below important support at 1,720, which also marks the neck-line of a possible Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top.
Short term a break below 1,760 will add confidence in my count.
A break above 1,797 will weaken my count, but only a break above the ole top at 1,813.79 will confirm a move higher towards 1,836 and maybe even closer to 1,900, but one should trade this market with care. A bigger decline is looming.

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We finally got the the break above 144, but it's not super convincing. We have a lot of overhead resistance at 144.50; 145.32 and 145.77 which needs to be cleared to ensure the rally above 149.39 to end the final e-leg of the Ending Diagonal, which has been building since the 118.75 low.

Gold - We have now hit the resistance area, which should protect further upside if we are looking at a S/H/S top. Short term we need a break below 1,758.55 to indicate the top of wave ii, while a break below 1,745 confims the top and a test of the all important support at 1,720 (neckline)

Crude Oil- need one more go at the top of purple wave iv. This rally was followed by clear weakness and should be the last push higher ind red wave iv and red wave v should now be under way. A break below 84 will raise the oods, that red wave v down to the 72 area has begun.

S&P 500 - More upside action should be seen

Could a new right shoulder be bulding? It's clearly a possibility. If this is the case we should see more upside acition towards 1,200, but could see a move towards the 1,224 - 1,225 area before this minor rally is over.
If a bigger Shoulder/Head/Schoulder is building a break below the neckline at 1,100 would open up for a decline towards the 803 area.

EUR/USD - Still going nowhere

We are going absolutly nowhere. I still expect resistance at 144 ultimately will be broken for a new move above 149.39 to finish the last leg of the ending diagonal, which has been building since the 118.75 low.

However and break below 141 and more importantly 140.09 will invalidate any further upside for a new decline towards the 129 area.

Gold and Crude Oil

I'm still looking for a break below 1,720 to confirm that an important top is in place at 1,813.79.
Short term we might need a slightly higher move towards the 1,775 - 1,780 area, before taking on support at 1,720.


Crude oil have corrected 50% of red wave iii at 87.27 and at the same time reached the top of purple wave iv. I do expect a challenge of support at 84.60 and more importantly 84.00 soon to confirm that red wave v down has begun. I still see red wave v reaching the 72 area.

AUD/USD & NZD/USD - Ready to test strong support

The faith of AUD should soon be decided. A break below strong support at 97.16 will confirm that we saw an important top at 110.80 and the end of wave C of the second zig-zag. A break below 97.16 could spark a sever downturn towards the 81 - 83 area where the next serious support is found. Longer term I looking for a decline towards the 64 area.

Short term I would expect resistance at 103.52 to protect the upside for a break below 103 and more importantly 101.08, which confirms the test of strong support at 97.16.


NZD has had a tremendous rally since March 2009, but the latest price action does show, that the previous trend has ended and a return to the Pitchfork mid-line near 68 is under way, but we could even see a move to the lower Pitchfork line near 52. First serious support is at 77.50, but is should just be a question of time before it's broken.

Short term resistance is found in the 84 - 85 area and should protect the upside for a break below 79.59 confirming the test of 77.50.

Crude Oil - Topping

After having corrected 50% of red wave iii and corrected back to the top of purple wave iv all odds favor that red wave iv is done. I'm now looking for a break below 84.02 to confirm the top and a new challenge of 76.08 on the way towards the 72 area in red wave v.

Copper - Testing strong support

Copper is currently testing strong support near 392 a close below this level (I expect it will be broken) will confirm a change in the trend from up to down.
If my count is correct we have ended wave B of an Expanded Flat at 461.85 and should at some point see the low of wave at 124.75 be broken. There is of cause always the risk, that a rare running flat is developing, but as said it's rare and shouldn't the first choise.
For now lets have the break below 392 to confirm that the top is in place.

USD/JPY - close to an important bottom

Please see this post first:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/08/usd-at-long-term-bottom.html

Having made a new low at 76.29 all structual demands is in place for a long term bottom to be put in at any time now. Ideally we sill see an underthrow of the support line and a move closer to 74.39 before the bottom is finally in place.
As can be seen on the chart above we have clear positiv divergence at all the indicators, which raises the odd, that an important bottom could be close at hand.
What will it take to confirm the bottom? First a break above 82.23 would indicate that the bottom is in, while a break above 85.54confirms the bottom for a rally towards 115 longer term.

Gold and USD/CHF

It turned out to be a triangle we where looking at and gold made a new high at 1,813.79, just above my target area between 1,810-1,812. The following decline does have an impulsive structure, but we still need to clear support at 1,720 to be more confident in my call for a top being in place. If however we clear support at 1,720 we should see a continuation down to 1,640, where we find the next important support.

Please see my prior post regarding USD/CHF:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/08/usdchf-testing-long-term-support.html

The long term support line was overthrown, which very well could be a signal of capitulation and that we have a long term bottom in place. It is much to early to judge how the bottom will form, but I will try to fine tune as it progresses

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

My preferred count is still, that we should see one more new high above 149.39 to end the final e-lag of the Ending Diagonal. Short term we need a break above 144.25 to confirm the next leg higher and a break above the next serious resistance at 145.60 will accelerate the move higher.

I do belive we saw the top at 1,778.30, but must also admit that we could be looking at a minor triangle, which should spark one more new high to near the 1,810 - 1,812 area, if we break out to the upside however a break below 1,720 will confirm the top for a decent decline towards the next support area near 1,640.

Crude Oil is still correcting and we might still see the 84 level before the next decline to the 72 area sets in. Longer term we should be looking at a new low below the 2008 low at 32.40.