EUR/USD - testing important short term resistance

Is testing short term important resistance in the 144.19 - 144.30 area, if this area is broken to the upside we should see the next rally towards at least 146.63 and more likely 149.32, from where the possibility of a top increases dramatically. Support is in the 142.91 - 142.99 area and should ideally protect the downside for now.

Crude Oil - Five wave impulsive decline down

I must admit, that I had expected the [B] correction to drag on a bit longer, but the five impulsive decline from 100.62 is just what we would expect from the start of wave [C] down.
Looking at the hourly chart we can see, that purple wave i was the smallest, while purple wave iii and iv was equal in length. I would expect red wave (ii) to correct towards the 98.43 - 99.17 area before red wave iii down is seen. The next short term support is at 93.56 and when broken we should see a follow through towards 89.76.

Gold - Topping?

Monthly - in wave 5

Weekly - in wave v

Daily - In wave (v)

Hourly - In purple wave v

As can be seen above. we can make a good case, that we are in the last part of the final fifth wave up since the 251.70 bottom in 1999. If the above count is correct we will be looking at a substantial correction soon. A break below 1,602 and more importantly a break below 1,581 as the first warning that a top might be in place. Until a break below 1,581 is seen we must respect the uptrend, which could rise above my target at 1,636, but as can be seen all time-frames shows negative divergence telling us, that we might be in a topping process.

Crude Oil - New count

The clear break below 96.52 has forced me to review my count. The above count seems to better describe the latest price-action. This mean, that we have see the top of wave [B] and should soon see support at 93,56 and 89.71 challenged for the next decline towards at least 81, but longer term we should ultimatly see a break below 32.40.

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil - Expect new rallies soon

EUR/USD - We are still working on wave E of the endning diagonal, which will make wave C of [B] and setting the stage for wave [C] down.


In the shorter term picture the most likely count is that we have seen wave a and is working on wave b, which should set the stage for a rally in wave c soon. As we are in the final parts of the bigger ending diagonal I have my doubts that we will see a rally all the to 156.93. I find it more likely that we will see one of the more rare running flats, where the final "C" leg doesn't reach it's normal target if it wave a regular flat or even an expanded flat.




The reaction from 1,628 doesn't look impulsive and the best fit is that minor wave (iv) has extended in time and is stetting the stage for one final rally in wave v higher towards my target near 1,636. Only a break below 1,600 would call for the top being in place.

Crude Oil - Not much to add here. I'm a bit dissapointed in the last couple of days price-action, but non the less I'm still expecting one final rally to end the ending diagonal and setting the stage for wave [C] lower.

Overall it seems as we are reaching an important point in time soon, where we should see major tops in the equity and commodity markets and we should see a stronger USD. Be aware that AUD, CAD and ZAR all have benefitted more than could be expected and should face quite a decline.

I'm particularly looking at two stock indices for clues. One is the Shanghai Composite - A clear break below 2,610 will be the clue here. The second index is the Swedish OMXS30 - A clear break below 1,045 will be the clue here. You might ask, why the Swedish OMXS30 is important or can provide any clues in regard to where S&P 500 is going? Please check the bottom chart.

A clear break below 2,610 in the Shanghai Composite could actived the major B-wave triangle, which has been building for the last couple of years. Abreak below 2,610 could be a warning that the China-bubble has finally been blown.

It seems that the OMXS30 tops and bottoms before the S&P 500 and cloud provide us with an early warning that a major top might be in place for the S&P 500.

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil - Short term

EUR/USD only reached 145.32 before break down below 144.34. We can count a five wave rally from 140.09 to 145.32 and therefor could have seen wave 3. As long as we don't break below 142.81 I will keep this as wave 3 and wave 4 should ideally be some kinde of flat correction not move much below 143.19 (It should also pose a low-risk buying area, with a stop at 142.80).
I still look for a move higher towards at least 145.90 but more likely 147.52 and even 150.19 if wave 5 extends.


Gold reached a slight new high at 1,628. As long as support at 1,607.79 isn't broken clearly to the downside I will be looking for a move higher towards 1,636 as the final target for wave 5. From 1,636 or upon a clear brek below 1,607.79 I would look for a test of important support at 1,581, which if broken will point lower towards 1,478.

Crude oil- The deep decline below 97.79 has forced me to give up on the triangle wave-b count. A more possible count is, that we are in and ending diagonal, which could reach 102.09 with a very slight chance of continuing higher towards 105.54 before topping out and turning down in wave [C].

EUR/USD; Gold; Crude Oil - All moving higher

EUR/USD is headed for resistance in the 145.71 - 145.77 area. The MACD indicator is not that "friendly" but take a look at my proprietary indicator, which is making new highs and calling for a continuation higher. I'm still looking for a wave 3 top near the 146.96 - 147.28 zone.

Gold - Wave (iv) drag out longer than first expected, and I have move the end of wave (iv) a little to the right, but the outcome should still be the same. A move higher towards target at 1,636. Is Gold an all out sell at that point? No not necessarily, much will depend on how Gold react after hitting the target. Any break below 1,609 should cause caution and any break below 1,581 should cause concern for the top being in place.

Crude Oil - Still not much to add here. The weird spike down to 97.89 yesterday, doesn't clear the picture in any way. If anything I would count it as wave (ii) and we should now be in wave (iii) of C higher towards 102.50.

No break below 97.89 can be allowed at this point.

Gold and Crude Oil - Still moving higher

The is no change to my overall picture for Gold, calling for a continuation higher towards the target at 1,636. The ending diagonal still seems to be the best fit and we should soon see the next move higher, but must accept a move lower towards maximum 1,603 first. A break above 1,616 confirms that the next move higher towards 1,636 has begun.

We should soon see Crude oil move up through 100 for a move into the resistance-band between 104.74 - 107.60, which should be the termination area for wave [B] and setting the stage for wave [C] lower.

Support is found at 98.50.

EUR/USD - Brearish count invalidated

As my short term bearish count was invalidated upon the break above 144.59 yesterday. I have been back to the drawingboard trying to deciffer the price-action since the top at 160.38. I'm still long term bearish, but the best fit seems to be, that we currently are in an expanding flat as wave [B] (see the upper chart). If this long term count is correct wave C of [B] seems to be an ending triangle calling for a move closer to the 156.85 area. The maximum length of wave e is 159.19 as wave c of the ending diagonal can not the shortest.

Short term we are in wave 3 of a, which should reach 147.28 where wave 3 will be 1.618 times longer than wave 1. If this count is correct we must not break back below the top of wave 1 at 142.81. Minor support is at 144.62 and again at 144.38.

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil - Short term

We tested the 144.38 high, but wasn't able to break deeper into the resistance-band. The rejection from this area adds confidence to my count, but that said the price-action isn't convincing yet. I would like to see more dynamic action towards the downside. A break below 143.22 and the lower Andrews Pitchfork line should do the job.
At no point should we see a break above 144.38 and more improtantly 144.59 which would invalidate the short term bearish count.

Failure to reach support at 1,575 has made a slight change to my short term count. I think the above count is a better count and should still produce the rally to 1,636 before a major top might be in place.

There still is a slight possibility that the rally to 1,609.51 was a wave i and that we have seen wave ii at 1,583 and we are now in wave iii up. This is not my preferred count, but can't be excluded yet. Ane break below 1,581 should be a warning that an important top might be in place.

Not much to add here. I'm still looking for a continuations towards the 104.63 and maybe even the 106.30 area before wave (B) is finished and wave (C) down to 81.25 can begin.

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil - Short term

We are now testing the resistance-band in the 144.20 - 144.52 area. I do think that we shall see a slightly deeper test of this resistancen-band before a break below 143.57 will relieve the upside pressure. The rally from 140.09 is best counted as a double zig-zag and should not be able to push up through 144.52 and more importantly 145.77, which would invalidated the short term bearish picture.

Gold has followed the path laid out yesterday nicely. I still think we are looking at a decline towards 1,575, from where we could see the next drive higher towards 1,636.

A clear break below 1,575 will leave us with the impression, that we have see an important top already at 1,609 for a decline towards 1,558.

In the bigger picture only a break below 1,478 will mark the ending of the entire uptrend since 1999.

Crude Oil broke above the triangle resistance at 99.17 and we should soon see a break above the next resistance at 100 for a move towards next resistance at 104.60, which could be the top for this move.

I know I yesterday said that we might be headed back towards 114 and even 120, but the triangle can only be a B-wave triangle and therefore the most likely top will be near 104.60 or maybe even 106.32 ending this rally since the 89.79 low and setting the stages for the next decline.

Crude Oil - Range trading, but....

The uptrend since the 32.40 low is still intract (fat red line), therefore we must be on guard, that the decline from 114.83 only was a correction and a new high will be seen later. It doesn't fit my USD-view, but at this point we can't exclude to the upside.

Zooming in on the hourly chart the possibly bullish count is the alternate count, while my preferred count call for a much deeper decline through the uptrend near 90.75. The alternate count will take center stages if break above 100 and more importantly 104, which will call for a rally towards 120 first.

Gold - should drop to at least 1,575 short term

Yesterday we saw a new decline to 1,581, which leaves us with a small five wave decline since the 1,609 high. That again argues for two possible scenarios. 1: that we are in a zig-zag correction, that should sent us down to 1,575, from where a new rally towards 1,636 should be seen.
The second scenario will break below 1,575 clearly and indicate, that we are only in wave (iii) down and that we might have seen an important top at 1,609.
Time will tell....

EUR/USD - New short term count

The break above 142.81 blow my short term count and a new one is needed.
I'm having a hard time giving up on my bearish count, therefore the changes are minor as can be seen. In stead of wave 2 already being in place I now looking for wave 2 to finish at 143.00, where wave c will be 61.8% of wave a or in the resistance band from 144.19 - 144.52 where wave c will be equal to wave a in length. If 143.00 holds and we see a break below 142.30 I will go with the first call while a clear break above 143.00 favor the second scenario.

Gold - Topping or just wave i of (v)?

The rejection from 1,609.50 was bigger than I anticipated. It's not a five wave decline yet, but if 1,597.40 stays untouched and we see a break below 1,582.09 we have a five wave decline on the hourly chart, which will call for at least a zig-zag correction. If however 1,597.40 is broken first to the upside we will "only" be looking at a flat correction.

I do think the lack of hype regarding gold tells me that we are not quiet at the top yet, but if my count is correct we are in the later part of the rally from 1999 and caution should be warranted. At no point can a break below 1,478 be accepted.

EUR/USD - Going nowhere....

Not much to add here. We are going absolutly nowhere, but when we see a break out this range, it will be we all the fireworks that have been lagging for quite a while now.
I still favor the downside with a break below 140.09 as the trigger for a new test of 138.35 on the way towards 132 and possibly even the 128.72 area.
Only a break above 142.81 will be of concern a jeopardize the bearish count.

Gold - closing in on its target

See the link below first for the longer term picture:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/07/gold-consolidating-before-one-last.html

The rally from 1,478 is in the fifth an final wave up. We should see 1,620 tested as the minimum, but a more likely target area will be between 1,634 - 1,636, which could be the final top for the entire rally since 1999.

A more bullish count will have the rally since 1,478 as wave i and a decline to 1,575 as wave ii and call for a even more powerful rally in wave iii. I will not/can not dismiss this oppotunity and will not be overly surprised if we suddenly see a moonshot (vertical move) towards 1.700, but time will show.

EUR/USD - No clear short term picture

The short term picture is a bit unclear. We could have seen wave i and ii of wave 3 down. If this is the case we should soon seen a more powerfull decline in wave iii of 3, for this picture to be the right one, we should see 141.36 holde for a break below 140.67 opening up the downside. However we might only have seen wave a and b of wave ii. If this is the case we should see 141.36 broken for a move higher towards 141.76 and possibly even the 141.95 - 142 area, before wave iii down takes over.

EUR/USD - No change in longer term view

I still view the decline since 149.39 as wave E in a major correction from 160.38. I do have two alternate counts, one which sees a serie of wave 1-2's and the second which saw a B-wave triangle and the decline from 145.77 to 138.35 as wave 1 and wave 2 from 138.35 to 142.81, and we should currently be in wave 3 down, which should reach at least 135.39 and possibly even 130.81. A break below 139.49 will call for a break below 138.35.

Resistance should now be found in the 141.76 - 141.88 area.

Gold - Last leg higher?

With the new high set we could be in the final leg higher towards the 1,636 target. As we are in the final leg high we could expirence a sudden hype regarding gold, which could push it even higher than the 1,636, but lets see how things plays out.

The is an alternate count to us being in the final leg higher, which is, the we "just" are in wave b of wave (iv) and will see wave c down below 1,540 for a move towards 1,443 before the final rally kicks in for real. The form of the next correction will tell, which count is right.

Short term we should expect a correction soon towards the 1,557 - 1,540 area. A break below 1,577 will confirm that the correction is ongoing.

EUR/USD - Back in no mans land

The break above 141.36, but importantly 142.04 yesterday blow my count. I have been back to the drawingboard. I'm still bearish looking for wave c of [E], which should take us down close to 128.71 eventually. The challenge for us is to figure out how we will get there. I'm divided between two brearish counts. The first is, that we are looking at a serie of 1-2's (see the chart above and zoomed in below). My hesitance towards this count is, that this count has worked very poorly many time in the last couple of years. The second count is, that wave B was a triangle, which gave away with the break below 140.71. My hecitance here is, that we are back into the triangle, which never is a good sign (see the second chart below), but for now I will stay on bearish ground and look for a break down from the rising channel from 138.35, which will be seen at 141.52. A break below 140.54 will confirm the rally from 138.35 was a correction and call for a break below 138.35.

A break above 142.81 and more importantly 143.74 will be a serious threat to the bearish count.

EUR/USD - testing resistance

We are currently testing the resistance band between 140.52 - 140.65, which ideally should hold and turn us down again. Short term a break below 140.00 will be first confirmation, that the correction from 138.35 is over, while a break below 139.45 confirms the next decline below 138.35 for a push towards 136.82.

A break above 140.77 will delay the decline for a rally towards 141.36 first.