EUR/NOK & EUR/SEK in major corrective rallies

EUR/NOK:

Since the 2012 ultimo low at 7.1003 we have seen a zig-zag combination and has likely just ended the second zig-zag at 8.5453. I think we will see a triple zig-zag combination, which means I will be looking for a x-wave correction towards 8.1841 followed the third zig-zag higher towards 8.6389 and perhaps higher towards 9.0021 before a new impulsive decline should be expected.
 

EUR/SEK:

The overall Picture does resemble that of EUR/NOK and then the is a major difference in their counts. The best way to count this cross is, that a wave 5 low was see already by mid-February 2011 at 8.6906 and since then an expanded flat correction has been ongoing. We are currently in wave C of the expanded flat correction, which ideally will end near 9.8837, close to the 50% correction target of the 2009 to 201 decline from a high of 11.7879 to a low of 8.1731. That said we should expect strong resistance at 38.2% correction target at 9.5656.

AUD/NZD - Is the low finally in place?

AUD/NZD:

The ending diagonal (turned into an expanded ending diagonal) finally seems to have ended and we should now look for a break above 1.0832 and more importantly a break above 1.088, which  confirms, that an important bottom is in place at 1.0719 for a rally higher towards 1.1581.

EUR/USD - Is wave 3 lower developing?

EUR/USD:

As FED has started its tapering (only buying for USD 75 billion per month now), they produced a little Market hick up. That meant a small new high for wave 2 at 1.3811 followed by a nice sell-off. The decline from 1.3811 does look impulsive, but we still need a break below 1.3621 and more importantly a break below 1.3524 to confirm the above Count and that wave 2 is indeed in place at 1.3811 and that wave 3 lower towards at least 1.2741 is developing.

It's still only a break above 1.3832, that invalidates the above Count and indicates, that wave E is still ongoing for a continuation higher towards 1.4247

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 19 - 2013

EUR/JPY:

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.89

R2: 142.54

R1: 142.41 

Current Spot: 142.14

S1: 141.67

S2: 141.27

S3: 140.91

Technical Summary:

FED was fiddling with the Market yesterday, which produced a short term hick up. However, as support at 140.91 stayed unbroken we knew, that the uptrend was still intact and FED's hick up produced a minor new high at 142.89. Short term I would like to see minor resistance at 142.41 protect the upside for a break below 141.86 and ideally a break just below 140.91 confirming that a top is in place at 142.89. That said, we will have to stay open minded for a possible new high above 142.89 as long as important support at 140.91 stays unbroken.

EUR/NZD:

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6808

R2: 1.6750

R1: 1.6706

Current Spot: 1.6693

S1: 1.6642

S2: 1.6608

S3: 1.6569

Technical Summary:

The FED hick up also produced a minor new high at 1.6807 here. The 1.6807 high was followed by a quick decline to 1.6569. That could have ended the leading diagonal, but it could also just be the minor wave iv and wave v now developing towards 1.6869 and once wave v is in place a new correction towards 1.6569 should be seen. No matter, which count is correct we should expect minor support at 1.6642 will protect the downside for a new rally past 1.6807. Then time will show which count is the correct count. Stay flexible...

DJI - UP or DOWN?

Dow Jones Industrial Index:

Will the bulls be able to make DJI break above 16,058 and confirm that the decline from 16,174.51 only was a three wave zig-zag correction?

I don't think the bulls will be able to manage a rally above 16,058 call for a continuation above 16,174.51 closer to 16,450.
The reason is, that there is almost no bears left to sell and keep the uptrend going. If however, the bulls magically managed to keep the uptrend since March 2009 going, the rally should be pretty short lived as that would "kill" most of the bears still standing.

So what will it be UP or DOWN?

I think Down...

EUR/AUD - Possible wave 5 target hit...

EUR/AUD:

Has hit its first wave 5 target at 1.5355, where wave 5 was 38.2% of the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 (1.1605) to the top of wave 3 (1.5030) added to the bottom of wave 4 (1.4051). As long as the steep uptrend channel stays intact we could see a move higher towards the next possible target where 5 will be 50% of the distance of wave 1 through wave 3 at 1.5764.

Short term only a break below 1.5312 will indicate that wave 5 could have finished, while a break below 1.5006 is needed to confirm the top.

GBP/JPY - Close to a top?

GBP/JPY:

Please see my last post from August 9 - 2013 here first:

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/08/elliott-wave-analysis-of-dji-eurusd-and.html

We did see a shallow kind of flat correction. It was not quite as expected, but the overall assumption was correct and we are now in wave 5 higher from 118.77. The ideal target for this wave 5 will be where wave 5 is 61.8% of the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 (118.77) to the top of wave 3 (156.78) added to the bottom of wave 4 (147.58), which will leave us with a target at 171.07, so we should be close to a possible top.

Short term we should expect support at 165.79 to hold for one more rally higher towards 171.07. A break below 165.79 will indicate, that wave 5 is already in place for a correction towards at least 158.77 and possibly even lower towards 151.13 before higher again.