Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

 

I'm still looking for one last rally higher towards 122.74 as long as support at 120.96 and more importantly as long as support at 120.36 protects the downside. From 122.74 or upon a break below 120.36 we should expect renewed downside pressure for the last zig-zag combination towards the ideal target at 117.28. At 117.28 wave 4 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 3 and once this target is reached the entire correction from 127.70 is likely to be over and we should expect the final wave 5 rally to above 127.70.



EUR/NZD

Here I'm looking for a powerful decline. Short term I would first like to see a daily close below 1.5685 followed by a break below 1.5593, which should add considerably downside pressure for a decline towards 1.5505 and likely even close to 1.5200. Short term we should not see a break back above 1.5760 and more importantly not above 1.5822 as that would question further downside pressure.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

The failure to break clearly below support at 120.40 followed by a break above 121.48 indicates, that the x-wave is still under development. Short term we should expect support at 121.66 protecting the downside for a move higher towards 122.75, where I expect the x-wave will terminate and the last zig-zag combination to unfold towards the ideal target, for this wave 4 correction, at 117.28. Once this wave 4 correction is finished we are looking for wave 5 to take over for a move above 127.70.

EUR/NZD

I'm still looking for a very powerful decline to unfold any time soon. A break below support at 1.5730 should accelerate the decline for a test of support at 1.5638 and 1.5592 on the way down to the ideal target near 1.5200. Short term only an unexpected break above 1.5816 will delay the decline for a minor rally towards 1.5847 before the downside pressure takes over again.

Elliott wave analysis of Apple

Apple

It has been a while since I last looked at Apple (see my last update here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/02/blog-post.html). My count is still calling for lower levels in Apple. The first target is at 391.00, but from the latest development I now expect, that the decline to 391.00 only would the bottom of wave iii and therefore we should expect the ideal target for the ongoing correction to breach 391.00 for a continuation lower towards 363.60 and maybe even lower towards the 61.8% correctiv target near 316.00. However as we close in on strong support at 391.00 I will take a close look at the pattern.

We should also notice, that the decline from 703.86 is nicely contained within the descending channels borders, which is typical for correction.  

Facebook has bottomed

Facebook

I have been waiting patiently to get a clue, that the bottom of wave 4 was in place and that clue came yesterday. With a low at 26.34 it have bottomed just 2,85% above my ideal target at 25.61 and we should now be looking for a break above 28.94 to confirm, that wave 5 is under way towards 33.71 and likely even higher towards 35.44

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

 

The odds still favor, that the X-wave did terminate with the test of 121.83 yesterday, but we still need a break below 120.40 to confirm, that the third and last zig-zag combination is unfolding. For the short term I'm looking for resistance at 121.48 to protect the upside for a break below 120.81 and of cause more importantly a break below 120.40, which confirms, that the last decline since the 127.70 high is unfolding for a move down to my ideal target at 117.28, where wave 4 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 3. That said, any break above 121.48 will delay the downside pressure for one last push higher to 122.74 before the next decline sets in.

 

 

EUR/NZD

I'm looking for a very powerful decline unfolding any time soon now. A break below 1.5776 will likely be the catalysts for for this decline, until we break below 1.5776 will must accept a more or less directionless trading between 1.5776 and 1.5847, but once support at 1.5776 gives away we should be looking for a decline to at least 1.5638 and will not be surprised to see this level break without a fight for a continuation lower towards 1.5509. That said, we must be aware of the possibility for a move above 1.5847, but it will likely only be to 1.5867 before the downside pressure takes over again.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With the break above 121.36 we knew, that the triangle was a B-wave triangle and that we needed one more rally higher in wave c of X. As can be seen on the chart, a triple zig-zag combination is developing and it should be a matter of time before we break back below 118.78. The reason I'm are so sure this will be the outcome is the B-wave triangle. Triangles can never be second waves and therefore the rally from 118.78 must be a corrective X-wave. That leaves us with the big question, how high will this X-wave go. Looking at the short structure, there is a very high possibility, that it finished already at 121.83, but we need a break below 120.95 and more importantly below 120.40 to confirm that. A break below 120.40 will call for a new decline down to 118.78 on the way to the ideal target at 117.28, where wave 4 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 3. However, as long as we have not seen a break below 120.95 and more importantly below 120.40 we must accept the possibility, that this X-wave could move higher towards 122.74 before the next move down.

EUR/NZD

With a top at 1.5933 my call for a rally towards 1.5930 was almost perfect. We are now looking for minor resistance at 1.5879 to protect the upside for the next powerful decline. It should be remembered, that expanded flat corrections is a forewarning of the next move being very powerful and extended, this is exactly what we are expecting here. The only possible way for wave c of red wave d to reach close to 1.5200 it will be if it extends. As minor resistance at 1.5879 protects the upside we are looking for a break below 1.5788 and more importantly a break below 1.5708, which confirms the decline to 1.5592 on the way down to 1.5363 and 1.5234.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We are currently locked within a triangle consolidation, which should ultimately break towards the downside for a test of our ideal corrective target at 117.28, where wave 4 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 3. Short term a break below 118.97 confirms, that the triangle consolidation is over and the final decline lower towards 117.28 is ongoing. However as long as minor support at 120.00 and more importantly support at 118.97 protects the downside we could see a move higher towards 120.77, but at no time should we see a break above 121.36 as that would indicate, the this is a b-wave triangle and call for a move higher to 122.74 before the final down move to 117.28 is seen.

EUR/NZD

The move above 1.5851 was a major surprise, but it does not change my call for a new powerful decline towards at least 1.5363 and more likely even lower towards 1.5234 once this ongoing expanded flat wave b correction is over. Short term I'm looking for one last minor rally towards 1.5930 before the final c-wave down takes over. That said, we should be aware, that a direct break below 1.5788 and more importantly a break below 1.5769 indicates, that wave c down is already developing.