Elliott Wave analysis of 10Y Spanish yields; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; EUR/TRY; DJI and Crude Oil

 10Y Spanish yields ag. 10Y German yields - First see my post from June 14 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/06/elliott-wave-analysis-of-10y-spanish.html

We are now clearly headed towards the next target near 8.12 after the break above 6.73. This situation is not acceptable for the Spain or EU. I'm sure that some kind of emergency meeting will be called later this week and they will come up with a new solution to the crisis in Spain. Of cause it will be a solution that will not be worth the paper it's written on, but the financial markets will react positively to it at first.

 EUR/USD - We have now reached the first blue wave v target at 1.2105, but I still think that a continuation towards the second target near 1.1985 is more likely. Once we reach strong support near 1.1985 we should expect a bigger correction back towards the 1.2306 area as the first target.

 USD/JPY - Should be very close to its wave ii bottom. We could see a move even closer to the 77.65 low, but we can break below with even 1 small pip as that would force a recount of the decline from 84.17.
Therefore buying USD here should pose a low risk possibility with a stop at 77.64. More conservatively wait for a break above 79.14 as a break above here will be the first indication, that a low is in place.

 NZD/USD - The decline from the 0.8054 high does have a clear impulsive character to it, however I would like to see a break below support at 0.7857, which will confirm the count for a continuation towards at least 0.7700, but more likely a decline towards 0.7481 will be seen in wave iii.

 EUR/JPY - Is now at its long term target near 94.58 and we should expect a bottom any time now. A break above 94.75 will be the first minor clue, that the bottom is in place however only a break above 95.24 will ease the downside-pressure.

 EUR/NZD - The picture here is pretty much the same as for EUR/JPY. We have seen a test of the long term ending diagonal support-line near 1.5140 here too we should expect a bottom to be formed any time now. A break above minor resistance at 1.5293 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.5450 will confirm the bottom.

 EUR/TRY - Here it looks like we will see a continuation towards the extension target near 2.1221 before the next sizable correction can be expected. That said caution and a close stop at 2.2325 should protect for a sudden turn-around

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Might already have finished its rally from 12,494 at 12,977.50, which a break below 12,755 will confirm and call for a new test of strong support at 12,450, but a break below here will confirm the next powerful decline towards 12,054 and lower

Crude Oil - The decline from 92.94 does have a very impulsive look to it and a break below support at 89.47 will indicate that the top is in place, while a break below 87.43 confirms the top for the next part of the decline towards the long term target near 72.00

AUD/USD in a long term Bullish or Bearish configuration?

It has been some time since I have last looked at the Aussie/US-dollar cross, so lets do so now.
I have put together a series of charts below from the long term monthly to a short term 4 hourly chart to try to figure out whats in store for us in the coming days/weeks and months. 

 AUD/USD (Monthly charts) - The upper chart shows the price-action back to 1970 and we can count a very clear five wave decline from the top near 1.50. The lower chart begins in 1974 and shows the count for the decline and the following correction.
From the lower chart we can see that the rally from the 2001 low at 0.4773 has been a double Zi-Zag correction, where wave Y was equal to wave W in length. I don't know the exact top back in 1973, but it looks like it's was near 1.4900. If this is correct, then the decline from 1.4900 to 0.4773 was 1.0127 points. If we calculates the fibo-retracement target 61.8% of this decline we will get 0.6258 points. If we add the 0.6258 point to the 2001 low at 0.4773 we will get a fibo-target at 1.1031, that is just 49 small pips below the high tested in late July last year, adding confidence in the validity of this count. Lets zoom in on the price-action since the 1.1080 high (see the chart below)

 AUD/USD (Daily chart) - From the late July 2011 high at 1.1080 we can see, that all declines and rallies has been in three waves, which tells us that the are corrective in nature. Zooming in on the rally from the June low at 0.9571 it too has become a double Zig-Zag rally. The big question is of cause whether it's over at 1.0445 or we will see a third zig-zag rally higher towards 107 before we will see the next decline. Zooming in to the 4 hourly chart will tell us, where important support is (see the chart below)

AUD/USD (4 hourly chart) - Here we can see the rally from 0.9571 in details. We are interested to find the supports, which tells us that the rally from 0.9571 is over and they are first at 1.0200 and secondly at 1.0096 a break below the later will confirm that a new decline is under way, but how far will this decline go? It depends on whether we are in a bullish or bearish configuration (see the two charts below)

 AUD/USD (Bullish configuration) - The bullish configuration shows, that a triangle is building. Within the triangle we need one more decline in wave "E" to end the triangle followed by a thrust out of the triangle to the upside and the first likely target should be near 1.1450, but we should expect a much higher rally longer term as the most likely count is that this triangle represents and "X" wave calling for yet another zig-zag rally.
If this scenario is the correct one it tells us that Australia will continue to do well for quite some time to come.

AUD/USD (Bearish configuration) - The bearish configuration also shows a triangle, but this time it's a bearish "X" wave triangle. In this case the "C" wave to 1.0445 is likely over for a decline towards the 0.9800 area to end wave "D" and should be followed by a rally in wave "E" towards something like 1.0200 and then a thrust out of the triangle to the downside and a decline towards 0.8545 and likely also lower longer term.

Which scenario is the preferred? Right now is does not matter as we should be looking for a decline followed by a rally in both scenarios.
However if I shall choose I do favor the Bearish scenario over that bullish. We saw a top near the 61.8% retracement target for the decline down from 1.4900 to 0.4773. The two Zig-Zag corrections from 0.4773 is almost exactly equal in length, which also points to a complete correction and does make a decline more likely, than a rally above the 1.1080 high.
However once we sees a break above the triangle resistance-line or below the triangle support-line, that when we get the real clue, what's in store for us.

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI; Gold and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - The shallow complex blue wave iv continues to drag out in time going almost nowhere. Actually we shouldn't be to surprised of this outcome... The only problem is our patience.
I'm still looking for a spike towards the 1.2362 - 1.2404 area, before this wave iv correction is over however we need to be aware that a break below 1.2187 also will tell us it's over and that blue wave v down to 1.2105 and more likely 1.1985 is already under way.

 USD/JPY - Has now reached its ideal corrective-target at 78.60 and we should be ready for a turn-around any time now. Could we see USD/JPY a little lower? Yes of cause, but wave iii could start at any time now. The first clue that wave ii is done will be a break above 79.36 and confirmed by a break above 80.09, which should take us towards at least 83.18 in wave iii.

GBP/USD - The break above resistance at 1.5721 confirm, that wave 2 from 1.5265 is still ongoing in a double zig-zag correction and will likely reach the 1.5905 target, before downside pressure again takes over. A break above. In the bigger picture we are in the early stages of a downside thrust from the big B-wave triangle that ended ultimo April 2012 at 1.6305. The long term target for this downside thrust is at 1.2645.

NZD/USD - The break above 0.8018 has made me more alert, but I still think the wave ii count is the best fit, that said under no circumstances can a break above the 0.8074 high be allowed as that will change the bigger picture.
Looking at the price-action from 0.7857 it's well defined within a rising channel, which is what we would expect for a zig-zag correction and we must also remember that second waves is allowed to correction 99% of the first wave.
Short term a break below 0.7977 will be the first indication that wave ii is done, but only a break below 0.7919 confirms, that wave ii is done and wave iii is under way to below 0.7857

EUR/JPY - Has broken below minor support at 96.37 which is the first indication that the final decline towards the 94.10 - 94.58 area is already under way. There still is a small possibility that wave iv is still ongoing, but as I have said before this wave iv was expected to be a shallow and complex correction.

EUR/NZD - Has now entered the target-zone between 1.5205 - 1.5245 (the low has been 1.5208). As long as minor resistance at 1.5371 and more importantly 1.5450 protects the upside we could see one last stab towards 1.5150 before the bottom is finally in place. That said we are in the very last part of the decline since the 1.6969 high and this is called bottom-fishing, but as it was with Natural Gas once the bottom is in place the reward will be well worth it...

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Wave 2 is still ongoing and we should see a move closer towards the 13,028 target before the downside pressure takes over again. Once the top is in place it should just be a matter of time before strong support at 12,450 is taken out for the next powerful decline. Complacency is painted all over this market again.

Gold - I'm still looking for a test of the all important support at 1,521 soon and a break here will call for a much deeper decline in gold. However as long as support at 1,521 stays firm we could see more sideways price-action.
For the short term only a break above 1,592 will delay the downside price-action towards 1,547 as the next target.

Crude Oil - The break above 90.18 means that red wave v of C has become extended, which calls for 93.18 as the first target however there is a risk for this market going all the way back to 95.37 in a mini moon-shot before the downside pressure takes over again.

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI; SSEC; Gold and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - Important support at 1.2187 held firm yesterday, which kept the correction from 1.2160 alive. I'm still looking for this correction to ideally reach the 1.2362 - 1.2404 area before blue wave iv is over. As I have stated all along, we should expect this blue wave iv to be a shallow but complex correction, which it most certainly have been. However once this correction is done we should see the next decline down towards 1.2105 and more likely 1.1985.

 NZD/USD - Tried to break support at 0.7926 without success and we are now at strong resistance near 0.8018 which should be the top for wave ii. A break below 0.7977 will now be the first indication that wave ii is over, but we need a break below 0.7919 to confirm that wave ii is done and a decline to strong support at 0.7857 is under way.

 EUR/JPY - The shallow and complex wave iv correction is still ongoing and I'm still looking for one last rally towards 79.96 before the fifth a final decline towards the ideal target near 94.58 takes over.

 EUR/NZD - Even though we broke above minor resistance at 1.5425 yesterday the possible rally was no success and we have seen a new low at 1.5301, which keeps the downtrend from 1.6969 alive for a decline closer towards the ideal target at 1.5245.
Short term it will take a break above 1.5450 to ease the downside pressure, but only a break above 1.5505 will confirm that a bottom is in place for a rally towards at least the 1.5808 - 1.5885 area, but I will look for a much bigger rally longer term.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index - With the break above 12,830 we knew that we should see a move closer to 12,961 and maybe even 13,028 before we can expect renewed downside pressure.

 Shanghai Composite - Ended red wave iii yesterday at 2,138 just above the ideal target near 2,118. We should now be looking for red wave iv towards 2,236 before red wave v will be ready to take over for a decline towards at least 2,123 but more likely the 2,048 - 2,074 area.

 Gold - Did break below 1,571 to confirm that wave ii was done at 1,599 and we should now be looking for the next decline towards 1,547 and likely a test of important support at 1,521 fairly soon.
Short term I will be looking for one last spike into the 1,582 - 1,585 area followed by a break below 1,575 to confirm the next part of the decline towards 1,547.

Crude Oil - Is working it's way higher towards the 90.87 target, but the rally from 83.65 is looking increasingly tired and we should expect a top any time now for a break below 88.57 as first indication that the top is in place, while a break below 87.41 will confirm the top for a new decline towards 83.65 and the long term target near 72.00.

Gold displays some very nice wave-relationships short term

Gold - As promised a update of the wave-relationships of the decline from 1,599.
After the peak at 1,599 we saw a five wave decline to 1,571. Looking at the internal relationship between the waves we can see that orange wave iii became 2 times longer than orange wave i and orange wave v became 1.382 time longer than the distance traveled from the top of wave i to the bottom of wave iii. When we see "wonder-waves" like this, where the wave-relationships become as nice a those above, odds raises considerably that you are on the right track with your count.
So what can we expect of pink wave iii? I will at least expect it to reach 1,547 where pink wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than pink wave i, but I would not be surprised to see pink wave iii extend way beyond 1,547 towards 1,536 and likely even near 1,519 where pink wave iii will be 2.618 times pink wave i.
However as I said in my post earlier we need a break below 1,571 to eliminate the risk of one last rise deeper into the target-area between 1,598 - 1,604, but this is not my preferred count.

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI; VIX; SSEC; Gold and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - Did we see the end of blue wave iv at 1.2313 yesterday? It's clearly a possibility, but we need a break below support at 1.2187 to confirm, that blue wave v is under way down towards 1.2105 or more likely towards 1.1985.
As long as support at 1.2187 holds firm we also need to accept the possibility of a break above resistance at 1.2313, which would call for a continuation towards the 1.2362 - 1.2404 area before blue wave v takes over.

 NZD/USD - Even though nothing is given here yet, I do favor the top of wave ii being in place at 0.8004 and wave iii down is in its early start. A break below support at 0.7926 confirms that wave iii down have begun and call for a test of strong support at 0.7858.
Even if wave ii is still ongoing the upside potential is limited to 0.8018 before downside pressure takes over. 

 EUR/JPY - Wave iv could actually be over with the test of 97.37, but we need a break below support at 96.37 to confirm that wave v have taken over for the last decline towards the ideal target near 94.58.
However as long as support at 96.37 protects the downside we could see wave iv continuing towards the 97.96 target before wave v takes over.

 EUR/NZD - Technicals is now more supportive of a bottom being in place at 1.5303, but we still need a break above resistance at 1.5505 to confirm the bottom and a call for a rally towards at least the 1.5808 - 1.5885 area.
Risk is a break below 1.5340 which will indicate a new test of 1.5303 and likely a continuation towards 1.5245 before the bottom is finally in place.

Dow Jones Industrial Index - We are still locked in the limbo-zone between 12,630 and 12,830. I slightly favor the break below 12,630, but we are taking odds of 50.25% against 49.75% . A break below 12,630 will call for a test of the strong support at 12,450, but a break below here we add considerable downside pressure.
However as long as support at 12,630 holds firm the risk is a break above 12,830, which will call for a possible move higher towards 13,029 before wave 2 is finished.

 VIX Index - Is in the perfect position for wave 3 down to begin. The complacency displayed here once again raises the risk for powerful decline soon.

 Shanghai Composite - Here we are now close to the ideal target at 2,189 for green wave v and we should expect a rebound in red wave iv towards 2,235 soon.

 Gold - Just entered the expected target-area between 1,598 - 1,604 with a high at 1,599 but within a blink of an eye the floor disappeared and we saw a drop to 1,571 with in a couple of hours. This decline does have impulsive characters and displays some very nice wave relationships, which I will update in a post later today.
Even though the decline from 1,599 to 1,571 displays impulsive behavior there is a risk, that it's a c-wave correction and one more rally is needed. The only way to avoid one more rally is a direct break below 1,571, which will call for a decline to important support at 1,521 and below here gold is a totally new play.

Crude Oil - Made a new high as expected and we could still see Oil slightly higher, but we are close to the top now. It's only a question if we will see the top near 90.18 or need a slightly higher high near 90.87 before the top is in place for a break below 87.41 to confirm the top and a move down to strong support at 83.65 on the way to the ideal target near 72.00.

Nice math....