Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; NZD/USD; The VIX; DJI; Junk Bonds and Copper

 EUR/USD - Should see one last decline towards strong long term support near 1.2625, which will mark the end to green wave iii. From close to 1.2625 we should see a minor correction in green wave iv before the next downside pressure in green wave v is seen, this time break below 1.2625.

 USD/JPY - The most likely scenario short term is, that we have seen the final X-wave done at 80.55 and that the last part of the correction from 84.17 is under way towards the ideal target-area between 78.33 . 78.85, from where the next impulsive rally above 84.17 should begin.
Short term a break below 80.17 will be first indication that the X-wave is done.

GBP/USD -  More and more odds favor, that the long term triangle ended at 1.6301 and the final thrust out of the triangle to the downside has begun.
Looking at the short term picture red wave iii will most likely end in the 1.5866 - 1.5884 area and set up a minor rally towards the 1.5930 area and then the last decline towards 1.5802 in red wave v and wave black wave iii.

 NZD/USD - The decline since the 0.8233 has been very steep, but we have now reached strong support in the 0.7619 - 0.7652 area, which should provide a correction towards 0.7854 in black wave iv, but longer term focus should be set at much lower levels.

 VIX Index - Only went side ways and is now closing inside the Bollinger Band, which could set the next stage for more upside towards resistance at 26.86. However there is a possibility that the sideways price-action will continue to the mid-band reaches to just below 21 before the next move higher is seen.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index - Support at 12.735 when broken turned nicely into resistance, which is one of the clearest signals you can get, that the trend has changed. Therefore keep you eyes on the next support near 12,400 if this support is broken too, then 12.257 - 12,258 become the next critical support-area.

 Junk Bonds (JNK) - Is beginning to look very bearish a break below support at 38.64 will open up the downside for a decline towards 37.91 and probably lower towards 36.19 longer term.

Copper - Dr. Copper seems to have joined the gang telling us that the Global economy is headed towards trouble. A break below support at 338.40 will call for a test of the important neck-line support near 314. If we sees a clear break below here that would be very bearish, especially for China and the Chinese banks. In many cases the Chinese banks have used Copper as collateral for loans and these loans will be in trouble if Copper-prices begins to turn down hard.

USD at an important cross-road

 USD Index - Is testing strong resistance, but we we break above here (close above on a weekly basis) the next target will be at 91.61, which is the Inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target. On the way up we should expect strong resistance at 88.75 too.

EUR/USD - Here we are currently testing strong support near 1.2625, but if this support breaks (close below on a weekly basis) then the long term support-line of the rising channel becomes the target. If we break below support at 1.2625 expect good support at 1.1632 too.

Apple looking at a 34% decline...

With the courtesy of Peter L. Brandt

If Jess Livermore had ever seen the upper chart of Apple he would not hesitate to sell it short at this point (see his note "Test before selling short" in the upper right corner of his chart). The break below Livermore's point 11 was his trigger and is clearly bearish for Apple in the eye's of Livermore. The break below 555 calls for a decline to near the point 7 low on Livermore's chart or close to 363 or about a 34% decline from here. Do you still want to be long Apple?  

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; The VIX Index; DJI; Gold and Natural Gas

My charting-system is up and running again!

EUR/USD - Still haven't seen real wave 3 action towards the downside, even though the decline follows the path that I drew some time ago.
However I feel confident that the downside pressure is mounting and once risk takes is forced to close their positions we will finally see the real wave 3 behavior.

VIX - Yesterday we saw the first close above the resistance-line, which is bullish for the volatility.
However we also closed outside the upper Bollinger Band, which normally calls for a set-back towards the mid-band, before the next real pressure towards the upside sets in.

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Closed below the 12,735 support , which calls for more downside pressure towards at least 12,400, where we we find the next strong support.
The big question is whether a new X-wave is developing before the final rally up in a complete triple-correction from the 2009 low. It would fit my long term view nicely if it was the case. See the post here http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/03/dow-jones-industrial-index-interesting.html.

CRB  Index - Closed below the important support at 294 for the first time on Friday since October 2010. If this close is confirmed on the weekly chart with a close below here on next Friday it will be very bearish and call for a continuation towards at least 259 and longer term we should see a break below the ending-point of wave [A] at 200.

Gold - Is very close to break below important support at 1,521, which will call for a continuation down towards 1,300. However short term it seems as a minor rally towards the 1,594 - 1,609 area should be seen first.

Natural Gas - The first impulsive rally ended at 2.53 and we should now be looking for a correction down towards 2.29 as first target. However longer term we should see Natural Gas trade much higher.

Buying of this set-back should provide a low-risk long term buy-opportunity with a stop at 1.89 as the low at 1.90 can not be broken at any time as that will change the picture to something completely different. 

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY

I have had some problems with my normal charting-system, so I have had to use the back-up system today, Sorry!

 EUR/JPY - Has just tested its 61.8% retracement target of wave 1, which rose from 97.03 to 111.03. We are in a low risk EUR-buy area, the only question is whether we need on last decline to just below 102.23 before wave 2 finally finds its ending-point. A break above resistance at 103.30 and more importantly 103.77 should be the first good indicators that wave 2 has bottomed and a new impulsive up-move has begun.

CHF/JPY - The picture is pretty much the same here, but we haven't quite tested the 61.8% retracement target at 84.76 yet. There is not demand that we do see a perfect hit, but as long as resistance at 86.00 protects the upside we could see one last decline closer to 84.76, but and break above 86.00 and more importantly 86.37 will indicate that wave 2 is finished and call for a new impulsive rally.

Elliott wave and technical analusis on German - Spanish 10Y yield; EUR/USD; USD/JPY and GBP/USD

 10Y German Bund ag. 10Y Spanish Bond - The two graphs above show the yield on the German 10Y Bund and the 10Y Spanish Bond and the lower chart the spread between the two.
As can be seen on the upper chart the 10Y yield on the Spanish Bond is rising again, while the yield on the 10Y Bund is falling. Focusing on the Spanish yield a break above resistance at 6.90% will trigger a rally towards the next resistance at 8.08.
Looking at the lower chart the spread between the two has now risen to new all time highs since the EURO was born. That is not good news for Spain and it's not good news for the EU. The EU will not be able to bail out Spain!

 EUR/USD - Continues to decline towards the important support near 1.2625. I still miss real wave 3 price-action, but it should show up fairly soon. There is a possibility that we "just" sees a decline to 1.2842 from where a correction up towards the 1.3011 - 1.3063 area is see, before real downside pressure takes over, but we will let time show.

 USD/JPY - Is still looked in the corrective down-channel. I expect resistance i the 80.30 - 80.45 area to protect the upside for a break below 79.86 to confirm the next downside pressure towards the ideal target-area between 78.33 - 78.85.

GBP/USD - As is the case with EUR/USD we still lack some real evidence that wave 3 down is in motion. I'm waiting and looking for support at 1.6050 to be broken (close below) to get things going towards the downside. The is a risk that the correction that began at 1.6067 is not over yet and we need one last rally towards the 1.6198 - 1.6212 area before the downside pressure really builds.

EUR/NOK breaking out from a Bull-flag.

EUR/NOK - Breaking out from a Bull-flag. This should at least spark a rally towards the long term resistance-line near 7.7100.
In the big picture we have seen a triple Zig-zag correction since the high at 10.16 ultimo December 2008. This Triple Zig-zag found support on the red long term support-line and the following rally is clearly a five wave rally, which tells us, that we should at least expect a similar rally from the low of the correction, which calls for a move towards at least 7.7850, just above the long term resistance-line at 7.7100. However a clear break above 7.7100 and more importantly 7.7850 will call for a continuation higher towards 7.95.
The Norwegian crown has been one on the safe-haven currencies during the aftermath from the financial crisis in 2008, but that status seems to be over for now.