EUR/USD - Close to a bottom

The price-action since the 149.39 does look impulsive, but I suspect it's a c-wave, which should soon be over. Yes we could see a little more downside action towards 141.55 area, but that should be it, setting the stage for the next move higher towards 152.73.
I have made some adjustment to my count, but overall I'm still see the bullish count outweigh the bearish alternatives.

On the hourly chart below there is a couple of different counts, but I have chosen the nine-count, as I have difficulties saying which wave extended

CRB Index - Long term view

Yesterday I wrote about the CCI-Index and some of the most important commodities (see the link below)

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/05/commodities-cci-index-tested-major.html

I thought it could be interesting looking at the CRB-Index too. The above chart shows the CBR-Index since 1962 and we can see two nice looking 5 wave advances. The first ending at 337.60 in November 1980, while the second ended at 473.97 in July 2008 with an overthrow of the rising channel. The important question is whether we have seen a Super Cycle top at 473.97 or it "just" was the top of Cycle wave 3. I'm inclined to count it as a Cycle wave 3, which means we are now in a Cycle wave 4. As wave Cycle wave 3 was a double zig-zag we should expect either a flat or a triangle as wave 4. The first two waves is most likely done and as wave B "only" corrected 61.8% of wave A, then a triangle is the most likely count for Cycle wave 4.
If this is the case we should look for wave C of 4 down towards the 264.75 area.

If we zoom in on the last five wave rally and the following correction it's very interesting to observe, that we have fractal formations as the ending of the impulse and wave B (see the chart below)

USD/JPY - Wave 2 might be done

We did overshoot the ideal 61.8% correction target at 80.29, but it doesn't change the overall picture of wave 2 having bottomed or being very close to bottoming.
As long as resistance at 80.65 isn't broken to the upside, then we could see one more decline below 79.56 (max. 78.78), while a break above 80.65 will indicate the bottom already being in place for the next rally higher towards at least 88.19, where wave 3 will be equal to wave 1.

EUR/USD - New micro-count

As I wrote yesterday a break below 147.73 invalidate my micro-count a would force a new micro-count, but it didn't necessarily mean a trend-change.
I expect support at 144.92 will holde for the next rally higher, but a break would call for a continuation down to the 141.55 - 142.35 area, where strong support will be found (see the daily chart below).

Commodities:


CCI- index tested major channel-resistance in 674 - 676 area. A break below 618 will confirm that a major top is in place and call for a much deeper decline.


Crude oil once again saw a top at the 11 week period, which was the fourth time in a row.
Expect support near 95, but it does look like a major top is in place for a decline to below 32 in wave [C].



Gold too tested its channel-resistance in the 1,569 - 1,570 area. I do think we are missing one more new high, but support in the 1,420 - 1,430 should ideally hold. A break below 1,420 and more importantly 1,308 would call for a major top in place.

Silver also tested its channel-resistance, but here again I'm looking for one more new high closer to the 53.36 area. Ideally support at 33.50 will hold, but we could see a move towards 31, before the final rally higher. A break below 25 will confirm, that a major top is in place already.

Copper has probably already seen a major top calling for a much deeper decline. The break below support at 407 is critical for copper and does indicate that an important top is in place with the 462 high.

The break below the Andrews Pitch fork support-line calls for a much deeper decline in Copper too.

Softs also look toppish. Wheat too looks to have topped and a break below 670 will call for a decline to the low 400 area and possibly 348 longer term.

Cotton, which has been the high flyer of the soft's has seen an important top too. We should soon see a test of the red Andrews Pitch Fork mid-line in the low 180 area, but longer term we should see a much deeper decline towards the 110 - 130 area.

An other bubble blown and gone...

USD/JPY - We are here....

First take a look at my previouse posts on this cross here:

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/04/usdjpy-topped.html

and here:

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/04/usdjpy-nice-looking-picture.html

The correction towards the 61.8% corrections-target of wave 1 has not been the most easy to read, but the way I see it is, that we have seen a double zig-zag.
There is a very nice relationship between the first and the second zig-zag. At 80.29 the second zig-zag will be exactly 61.8% of the first zig-zag, which is just 2 pips above the 61.8% corrections-target, so we have very strong support here.

If wave a and c of the second zig-zag is going to be equal in length, the we should see wave c reach 79.98. No matter which of these target will mark the end of wave 2 we are very close and should soon see wave 3 higher. The first indication that wave 2 is over is a break above 80.75 and confirmation will be a break above 81.20.

Stay tuned!

EUR/USD - Ready for the next rally

We saw the expected rally to a new high yesterday. If my micro-count is correct we are close to see a powerful wave three rally driving up to and probably through 151.44.

Invalidation of my micro-count will be a break below 147.73, which will force a recount, but not change the bigger picture calling for more upside.


The most bearish alternate count is that we are in a wave two, which should be over very very soon and turn EUR/USD hard down in a wave iii of 3 (see the chart below).
Invalidation of this possibility will be a break above 151.44.