USD/JPY - One more rally in wave 1 was needed

First of all, please see my last post regarding USD/JPY: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/04/usdjpy-wave-1-is-likely-over.html As I metioned in that post (add-on to the original post), that we could expect one more rally in wave 1, which is what we have got. Where will this last rally end? First of all we have the long term trendline resistance at 85.62. Looking at the Fibo-relationships at 85.72 wave v of 1 will be equal to wave 1 - 3 in length. and finally we have resistance from at 85.84 - 85.92 which was the top in mid-September 2010. When wave 1 is done I will be looking for a deep retacement in wave 2. Ideally wave 2 will correct towards 80.45 area (61.8% retracement of wave 1).

EUR/USD - Red wave iii is in its final stages

My micro count is still on track. We are now in the final stages of red wave iii, which as a maximum can reach 143.00. At 143.00 red wave (v) of red wave iii will be longer than red wave (iii) and leave red wave (iii) as the smallest wave, which is not allowed. Sorry for the complex count, but we are in the sub-micro count here. Whatever happen it will give us a good indication of what to expect next. When red wave iii is over we should get a small sideways red wave iv setting up the final red wave v ending the entire rally from 128.71. A minor warning: If my count is correct, and it has been pretty accurate lately, then we are in the absoulte final stages of the rally since 128.71, so it's not the time to over-trade the long side.

EUR/USD - More upside action needed

The price-action the last couple of days hasn't been easy to deciffer, but the above count is may best shot right now. Red wave i of v was an Expanded leading diagonal, followed by a very deep red wave ii and we are now in red wave iii. This red wave iii isn't finished yet and I would expect it to move towards the 142.94, from where we should see red wave iv building. Red wave iv should not move into the area of red wave one, which should keep red wave iv above 142.33, for one last rally in red wave v ending the entire rally from 128.71.

Under no circimstances can we break below 140.05 as that would leave us with a finished rally from 128.71.

USD/JPY - Wave 1 is likely over

I was having an extra look at the hourly USD/JPY chart today. Yes we had an overthrow at the upper channel resistance-line, but I wouldn't surprised if support at 83.59 would protect the downside for one more challenge of the channel resistance-line before wave 1 is finally done. Use 83.59 as a guide for the mood. Above we should still be open for a little more upside (not much) and below that was it... and wave 2 has begun. Original post below: It appears that we now have a complete five wave rally from 76.99, which is just wave 1 or A in the bigger picture. I prefer the more bullish count, that we have only seen wave 1, but time will show. Looking at the rally from 76.99, we can see that the wave ii - iv channel was hit and overthrown slightly at 84.72. Wave iii and v was almost perfectly the same length (wave v was just 9 small pips longer than wave iii). Wave iv became a triangle and wave v ended perfectly at the triangles Apex (the the to converging lines meet). I will now look for a break below 83.59 confirming that a correction has begun. I expect a simple deep zig-zag as wave 2. Ideally we will see wave 2 falling to the 80.04 -80.39 area, from where the next rally higher towards at least 87.78, but we could very well see wave 3 extend higher.

EUR/USD - A typical wave iv

This wave iv is a typical wave iv. It's very complex, we really can't figure out what coming next. Are we in some kind of triangle or is wave iv already over and wave v has begun. we simply don't know yet, but what we know is where wave iv can't go and that's below 139.83. Being able to hold above that support has kept the wave iv count well and alive no matter how complex it has been or is going to be. I'm still looking for wave v to break above 142.49 and 142.81 to end the entire rally from 128.71. So stay with the wave iv count as long as support at 139.83 doesn't give away and be tricked into the top-picking affair just yet...

EUR/USD - We migth still be in wave (iii) of v up

The above micro count is valid as long as support at 141.47 isn't pierced. A break above 141.80 would signal that the final red wave (v) towards the 142.33 - 142.66 area has begun and setting the stage for the final wave (v) above 142.81, ending the entire rally from 128.71. A break below 141.47 would cause an overlap between red wave (i) and red wave (iv) which would eliminate the micro count above. A break below 141.47 would most likely signale that wave (iii) of v ended at 142.33 and wave (iv) of v would decline further towards 141.18, but under no circimstances can we allow a break below 141.15 as that would produce an overlap between wave (i) and wave (iv) of v. That would also give the rally from 140.05 a clear three wave look and revive the triangle wave (iv) count.

EUR/USD - The wave v count is still good

Important support at 139.68 is still untouched keping the micro wave count well and alive. The possible Ending diagonal I described yesterday also fits the picture nicely at this point. The only problem I have with the Ending diagonal is, that we will need quite an overthrow to make it past 142.89, but it's not unlikely. There is an other possible micro count for this wave v rally. That wave one went from 140.05 to 141.15 follower by an Expanded flat correction, which ended at 140.49 as wave two and we are now in wave three. If this count is correct we should soon see a clear break above 141.70 for a move towards 142.29. A break above 141.70 will likely produce a more negative outlook for the USD again. While a break above 142.49 will have the perma bears call for the demise of the USD and making the contraian call for a stronger USD a nice possibility...