Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY - 4 year correction is likely complete

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY - 4 year correction is likely complete

USD/JPY saw a temporary peak at 118.67 in late December 2016 and has since been in a descending correction towards 102.56 as the low on January 5 - 2021 from where we have seen a small five wave advance to a high of 104.22. This is likely the first strong indication that the a new log-term impulse rally now is unfolding. 

Short-term I will be looking for a temporary set-back to the 103.19-103.39 area from where a new impulsive rally though the former peak at 104.22 for a rally towards 105.47 and above here confirm that the correction through 4 years has completed and a new long-term impulsive rally is building. Ultimately I will be looking for a re-test and break through the former peak at 118.67 towards 125.86. 

Buying in the 103.19 - 103.39 will likely prove to be a high profit long-term trade. Place a stop at 102.50 keeping risk at a minimum. 

The trend and patience are your friends. 

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD - Look for wave C lower in an expanded flat correction

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD - Look for wave C lower in an expanded flat correction

The Aussie dollar has rallied nicely from the March 2020 low at 0.5506 and completed a five wave rally at 0.7414. 

After the wave 1 peak, we have seen wave A and B of an expanded flat correction and wave C has likely begun or will begin very soon for a decline towards 0.6822. 

Short-term a break below 0.7458 will confirm that wave C is unfolding for the final decline in wave 2. If a final spike is made in wave B it could be close to of just above 0.7640 before tuning lower in wave C towards 0.6822. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends 

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD - More upside towards 1.2852 remains expected

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD - More upside towards 1.2852 remains expected

I'm currently seeing many analyst call for a USD-low and reversal. One should never say that's impossible, when dealing with the financial markets, but just looking at the picture above doesn't really call for a major downside swing. 

The long-term descending trend from July 2008 was broken in late July 2020 indicating more upside pressure in the months to come. If we are looking at a simple zig-zag rally from the January 2017 low a rally to at least 1.2852 should be expected. 

If, however the ongoing rally is wave (3) of a new impulsive rally of the January 2017 low, then much more upside should be expected with the first extension target seen at 1.4221. 

I will of course not exclude a temporary set-back from near the February 2018 peak at 1.2555, but it should only be temporary and more upside progress should be expected afterward. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends  

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZD/USD - Peaking, time for a correction

 Elliott Wave Analysis of NZD/USD - Peaking, time for a correction

NZD/USD has made a clear five wave advance since the March 19 low at 0.5468. Now the red lights are starting to flash bright red at wave 5/ has hit the 38.2% target of the distance traveled from the start of wave 1/ through wave 3 added to the bottom of wave 4/, this target is seen at 0.7092. 

The top of the wave 2/ - 4/ channel has been hit and finally we are seeing a clear negative divergence from the RSI indicating a loss of upside momentum and a top nearby. 

A break below minor support at 0.7006 will confirm the top being in place and the onset of the correction towards at least the 38.2% corrective target at 0.6498 and possibly even deeper than that, but for now let's focus on the top being confirm and then a larger correction unfolding. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends.

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Long-term Count

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Long-term Count

It has been quite a while since I has updated anything here. But as I was reviewing the updates, I thought it would be appropriate to update my GBP/USD post from July 30, 2019. 

Now a year and a half later we have seen the expected dip in wave C/ close to the expected target at 1.0842 (Wave C/ bottomed at 1.1414) which completed the ending diagonal that had been unfolding since November 2007 and now we should be looking for wave C higher to just above the peak of wave A at 2.0178 in the years to come. 

A break above short-term resistance at 1.3515 will confirm more upside progress towards solid long-term resistance at 1.4198, but ultimately this resistance should be broken too for a continuation towards 2.0178. 

That said, we might see a failure to break above 1.3515 in the near run, due to failed Brexit negotiations. This could add temporary pressure on Cable for a corrective dip to 1.2762 before renewed strength through resistance at 1.3515. 

So be aware of a possible set-back in the weeks to come and a corrective dip towards 1.2762 before the next possible push higher. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends  

 

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD - Change of the long-term count

Change of the long-term count

As the former low at 1.1950 is close to being broken, I have reviewed my previous long-term count and find it appropriate to change the count. 

Under this new preferred long-term count, wave B is still in motion and calls for a final dip closer to 1.0842 before completing wave B and setting the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave C towards 2.0178 and likely above here too. 

A break below 1.1950 will confirm this new preferred long-term count. Even-though more downside is expected, it's important to be aware that this is the final dip in the long-term decline from 2.1166 and all that's needed is a break below 1.1950 to fulfill all requirements to the decline in wave B. So ride this decline with care. 

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Will History repeat?

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Will History repeat?

I will let the chart speak for itself...