EUR/USD - Possibility of wave E being place rises.

EUR/USD:

The break below 1.3655 indicates, that wave E of the major running B-wave triangle, which has been developing since late 2008 could have ended at 1.3894.

Short term I would like to see a break below 1.3625 as well as that would further enforce the possibility of wave E being in place. A break below 1.3625 would call for a continuation lower towards 1.3561 as wave (v) and wave iii since the 1.3894 top.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for January 3 - 2014

 EUR/JPY:

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 143.63

R2: 143.25

R1: 142.81

Current Spot: 142.59

S1: 142.30

S2: 142.10

S3: 141.76

Technical Summary:

The powerful break below the base-channel support-line does support my count perfectly. Short term we should see support at 142.30 protect the downside for a red wave iv correction towards 143.26. The red wave iv correction will likely be a simple zig-zag correction as the red wave ii correction was a flat correction. Once red wave iv is done near 143.26 we will be looking for red wave v lower towards 140.98.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6659

R2: 1.6623

R1: 1.6577

Current Spot: 1.6537

S1: 1.6517

S2: 1.6470

S3: 1.6443

Technical Summary:

We have tested important support at 1.6569 and have even broken it slightly. The important question now is, whether we are ready to challenge the upside again or the downside pressure is too strong. A break above minor resistance at 1.6577 will be the first indication, that a bottom could be in place, but to confirm the bottom a break above 1.6659 is needed. If however, the downside pressure continues to force prices down it will take a break below 1.6443 to invalidate my bullish preferred count and instead make my alternate count (see below) the preferred count.

 

EUR/GBP - Important bottom nearby.

EUR/GBP:

I think the cross is very close to an important blue wave ii low and a powerful blue wave iii is about to develop.

Short term I will expect the blue wave i low at 0.8250 will protect the downside for a break above 0.8325 and more importantly a break above 0.8375 confirming the bottom for a rally higher towards at least 0.8619 and possibly even higher towards 0.8836.

A break below 0.8250 will invalidate my bullish count, but the downside should be limited no matter what happens.

EUR/USD - Indications of a top...

EUR/USD:

We have had the first indication, that wave E could have ended at 1.3894, however we still a Little more confirmation in form of a break below support at 1.3655 and even better a break below 1.3625.
A clear break below 1.3655 will call for a continuation lower towards 1.3553.

Short term resistance is now at 1.3745; 1.3775 and 138.19.

NZD/USD - b wave triangle has likely finished. Look for downside pressure

NZD/USD:

Has been locked inside a triangle consolidation for the last couple of weeks, but red wave e has or is very close to finish and once it's over we should see a powerful decline in wave c of red wave D lower towards 0.78.

Short term a break below 0.8143 to confirm, that red wave e is over and wave c of red wave D is developing.

Crude Oil - Wave 4 is in place and more downside is expected

Crude Oil:

My expectation of a wave 4 top at 100.76 has worked perfectly.

Short term I'm looking for a minor reaction higher towards 99.38, which should be followed by a new decline towards 97.81 from where a new correction towards 99.38 is in the Cards. However a powerful decline below 97.81 will call for a continuation lower towards 95.21.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for January 2 - 2014

 EUR/JPY:

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 145.32

R2: 145.17

R1:  145.01

Current Spot: 144.84

S1: 144.60

S2: 144.37

S3: 144.06

Technical Summary:

I'm still looking for evidence, that wave v of 5 is in place at 145.69. The first real evidence will be a powerful break below 144.37, but only a break below 140.91 confirms the top and that a major correction is developing.

Short term we are at a Make It or Break It point. A break below the channel support-line at 144.50 will add downside pressure, but as long as this support holds firm the risk is to the upside for a break above 145.17 calling for a new challenge of the 145.69 top.

EUR/NZD:

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6818

R2: 1.6790

R1: 1.6765

Current Spot: 1.6733

S1: 1.6683

S2: 1.6621

S3: 1.6569

Technical Summary:

We are currently at strong support near 1.6683 and a break below here will indicate continuation lower towards the 1.6569 area. However, if this support protects the downside for a break above 1.6807 green wave ii is already done and a new powerful rally towards 1.6996 and higher to 1.7239 in green wave iii. For now we just have to be patient and let time show us, which scenario is the correct one.