Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 7 -2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.84

R2: 134.15

R1: 133.73

Current Spot: 133.38

S1: 133.14

S2: 132.85

S3: 132.36

Technical Summary:

The correction went a little lower, than the expected 133.11 (the low came in at 132.86), but that does not change my overall bullish bias for a rally higher towards 137.05 over the coming weeks. I think we are currently in wave c of v of an ending diagonal. The downside should now be protected by strong short term support at 132.86 for the a continuation higher towards 134.14 and 134.84 on the way higher to 137.05. The absolute maximum for the ongoing wave c is at 138.39 as wave iii never can be the shortest wave and that would be the case here if we does see a break above 138.39.

An unexpected break below 132.86 will confuse the picture, but only a break below 132.37 will invalidate my bullish count.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6289

R2: 1.6248

R1: 1.6187

Current Spot: 1.6170

S1: 1.6149

S2: 1.6105

S3: 1.6070

Technical Summary:

We saw a low at 1.6051 yesterday, which very well could mark an important bottom, but we need some confirmation in form of a break above resistance at 1.6241, which would call for an acceleration higher towards 1.6349. We could have a possible hidden bullish divergence at the 1.6051 bottom, but we need this divergence to be confirmed, if however, it is confirmed, then we should expect a very powerful rally higher, with only very small corrections.

Short term I would like support at 1.6149 to protect the downside for the break above important resistance at 1.6241, but only a break below support at 1.6105 will frustrate my bullish view and call for a new test of 1.6051.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for Novemeber 6 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.84

R2: 134.15

R1: 133.70

Current Spot: 133.42

S1: 132.85

S2: 132.55

S3: 132.27

Technical Summary:

We saw important resistance at 133.42 protect the upside for one last decline closer to 132.20 (the final low came in at 132.37). Following the low at 132.37 we have seen a powerful rally and seen a break above important resistance at 133.42, which indicates, that the final rally higher in wave c of v is developing. The ideal target for this wave v is at 137.05 and the absolute maximum for this rally is at 138.39 as wave iii can not be the shortest wave and that will be the case if we see a break above 138.39.

Short term I'm looking for support at 133.11 to protect the downside for a break above 133.45 towards 133.70 and higher towards 134.15 and 134.75 on the way higher to 137.05.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6241

R2: 1.6185

R1: 1.6133

Current Spot: 1.6090

S1: 1.6057

S2: 1.6016

S3: 1.5929

Technical Summary:

We are getting very close to the Invalidation point at 1.6016 for my preferred count. If the above count is valid a break below 1.6016 can not accepted, as second wave are not allowed to break below the starting point of wave i. Therefore I'm expecting support at 1.6057 and more important support at 1.6016 to protect the downside for a break above 1.6133 and more importantly a break above 1.6241, which calls for a rally higher towards 1.6349 and 1.6422 on the way higher.

However, if we does see a break below the invalidation point at 1.6016 I will be forced to shift to a much more bearish count calling for a continuation lower towards at least 1.5493, but for now I'm holding firm and are looking for a bottom soon.

Elliott wave analysis on Gold

Gold

I still think we are locked in a triangle consolidation and is looking for wave c to develop higher towards 1,391 before wave d will be ready to take over. Only a break above 1,433.73 will invalidate the possible triangle and indicate that a double zig-zag is developing instead, but that outcome is less likely.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD

We have entered a strong support-zone between 1.3395 and 1.3446. We could already have a bottom in place for the X-wave, but to confirm that, I would like support at 1.3469 to protect the downside for a break above 1.3524, which will confirm a powerful and extended rally higher towards at least 1.3590 and likely even higher towards 1.3662 as the next zig-zag higher develops. Long term I'm still looking for a rally higher towards 1.4256 before wave E of the major B-wave triangle could be over.

Only a break below 1.3395 and more importantly a break below 1.3323 will invalidate the possible Inverse S/H/S and add a considerable downside pressure as it indicates, that wave E ended early at 1.3832 and calls for a test of important support at 1.2756.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 5 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.84

R2: 134.15

R1: 133.42

Current Spot: 132.94

S1: 132.60

S2: 132.44

S3: 132.20 

   Technical Summary:

We have been trading in a narrow range between 132.60 and 133.42 since yesterday and we need a break above 133.42 to confirm, that wave b is over and wave c is ready to take us higher towards 137.69 and maximum 138.39. However, as long as important resistance at 133.42 protects the upside we still could see wave b spike lower towards 132.20 before wave b is finally over and wave c is ready to take over.

Only a direct break below 131.12 will indicate, that we already has seen an important top for wave v and that a correction towards 124.89 is developing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6471

R2: 1.6423

R1: 1.6349

Current Spot: 1.6320

S1: 1.6289

S2: 1.6270

S3: 1.6246 

    Technical Summary:

The rally of the 1.6246 low yesterday, does have a clear impulsive character, but to confirm that we have seen an important low at 1.6246 I would like to see support at 1.6270 protect the downside for a break above 1.6349, which would call for a powerful and extended rally higher towards at least 1.6423 and likely even higher towards 1.6471 on the way higher towards 1.6726 and higher.

That said, we could risk a deeper decline closer to 1.6246, as second waves are allowed to correct all of the first wave, but it can never break below the starting point of the first wave. 

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 4 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.84

R2: 134.15

R1: 133.69

Current Spot: 132.85

S1: 132.60

S2: 132.44

S3: 132.20

Technical Summary:

We are hoovering just above strong support in the 132.44 - 132.60 zone, which I expect will protect the downside for a break above 133.69 confirming the final rally higher in wave c of v to end the ending diagonal. The ideal target for wave c of v is at 137.69, but we could see a rally a little higher, but under no circumstances can a break above 138.39 be allowed, as that would make wave iii of v the shortest wave and that is no allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. Once wave v of the ending diagonal is in place we should see a correction towards at least 124.85. 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6471

R2: 1.6423

R1: 1.6361

Current Spot: 1.6295

S1: 1.6271

S2: 1.6212

S3: 1.618 

Technical Summary:

Wave ii has broken below strong support at 1.6319, which has opened for a deeper decline towards 1.6271 and maybe even 1.6212. We have to remember, that second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, but never ever can break below the start of the first wave, which we think is at 1.6081. Once wave ii is in place we should expect a strong rally as wave iii unfolds. Normally wave iii will be the longest and strongest of the impulsive waves. To confirm that wave iii is developing we need a break above 1.6422 and more importantly a break above 1.6471 for a new rally towards 1.6726 and higher to 1.7424.

Elliott wave analysis on GBP/USD; USD/JPY and EUR/JPY - Long term outlook

GBP/USD Monthly

 

GBP/USD Daily

 

Please see my long term view for Cable here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/10/elliott-wave-analysis-of-gbpusd-long.html

 

After ending wave D of the huge B-wave triangle we are currently in wave E and we can already say, that wave E is unfolding as some kind of a flat correction. A clear break below support at 1.5883 will call for a continuation lower towards 1.5506 and could move all the way down to the triangle support line near 1.5000.

 

However, we have to remember, that E-waves can be sub-normal and end early, which a break above 1.6260 will indicate, but we need a break above 1.6381 to confirm, that the B-wave triangle has ended and wave C higher towards 1.9231 is unfolding.

USD/JPY Monthly

USD/JPY Daily

Nikkei Quaterly

Nikkei Monthly

 

 

I'm looking for a powerful rally higher in USD/JPY very soon. Looking at the monthly chart of USD/JPY we a seeing a very clear red wave iv triangle, which should cause a strong thrust towards the upside, when we break above the triangle resistance line at 99.12 and more important above the top of wave D at 100.61, which would call for a continuation higher towards 106.33.

 

I was also asked for my opinion on the Nikkei Index as that correlates with USD/JPY. I agree there has been a correlation since the 2011 low. But if you have been reading my blog long enough you will know, that I'm not a big fan of correlation and the reason is quite simple, when just about everybody has figured out, that a correlation exits, then it will magically disappear. I have added a correlation chart below the quarterly chart, which clearly shows that this correlation comes and goes as it pleases, so be careful regarding correlations as the holy grail. 

EUR/JPY Monthly 

EUR/JPY Daily

 

Finally my long term view for EUR/JPY call for a rally towards 191.82. This rally will of cause not be in a straight line and I think we are closing in on a medium term top for a decline towards at least 124.85 and likely even lower towards 118.72, before the next powerful rally higher.

 

That said, the overlapping rally from the 124.85 low could be a leading diagonal and if this is the case, we will likely only see a decline to 131.10 before the next swing higher towards 148.85 and higher.