EUR/USD - Ready for the next rally?

I'm still looking for a break above 143.39 and more importantly 144.23 to confirm that we saw the end of wave (iv) at 140.46. Short term we should see the 142.35-142.40 area protect the downside, but only a break below 141.93 and more importantly 141.23 will alter this count.

Red wave (i) from 140.46 was an Leading Expanded Diagonal (see the 5 minut chart below to see the details)

USD/JPY - In the very early stages of wave 3

My long term view still is, that we saw an important long term bottom with the test of 76.99 on March 16. Since then we have seen a micro wave 1 rally, which ended at 85.54 and wave 2 ended at 79.56. We should now be in the very early stages of wave 3 up. The rise since 79.56 if impulsiv can only be counted as an Expanding Leading diagonal, because of the overlapping structure. We should be close to end wave (iii) and should see a new decline in wave (iv) down towards the 81 area.
I would expect this ongoing wave i to end near 82.77.

Crude Oil - Headed for the 101 area

We are corrently in the middle of wave (c) of wave (ii) of wave 3. Wave (ii) is an flat correction, which means that we should see wave (c) head for the 101 area. That would be just above the end of wave (a), which ended at 100.65 and at the same time it's the 61.8% retracement of wave (i) down from 104.59 to 95.30.

When this wave (ii) is over we should see a much deeper decline through 95 and more importantly 93, which will open for a decline towards 84.35 and probably 71.85.

EUR/USD - The bullish count is still under threat

My possible bullish count is still under threat, as long as resistance at 143.39 and more importantly 144.23 isn't broken to the upside. Only a break below 138.61 will kill the bullish count entirely.

Zooming in on the hourly chart (see below) we can see, that the minor resistance-line from 149.38 has been broken, which favors that a firm bottom was seen at 140.46, but again we need at break above 143.39 to relieve the downside pressure.

EUR/USD - The possible bullish count under threat

The possible bullish count is under serious thread with the break below 141.55, which has opened up for a continuation towards next support at 140.25.
As can be seen the Andrews Pitch Fork support is sitting near 140.25 too.

Zooming in at the hourly chart, we can see that the last part of the decline from 149.38 is followed by double divergence, which is a sign that a reversal is nearby.

Short term only a break above 143.39 and more importantly 144.23 confirm, that an wave (iv) is over.
At no point can a break below 138.61 be accepted.

Crude Oil - Fractal Formations

Please see my post from yesterday first:

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI6ZUCs2L9aKPAnEKIGCbp3sJvqVZpxlCY-W3S2ebYM_W_3Mm-sDpAPnHVFvJqOXdpSysv-kAnNnsE6ifUhK98JUcnJXSgVWnKDWeZq0UrMIKjQlpIWqycxHKOU8MgTGqPfRNe4UE3e7wx/s1600/image002.gif

The rising diagonal turned out just as expected and we are now headed for support at just below 95 and again near 92.00, If this support breaks too then the next target will be at 70.04.

Short term we now can see fractal formations, the current formation being the child formation to the mother formations, which was triggered yesterday. The childe formation will give way for the next decline towards the 95 area.

We also have a nice Picth Fork (red dotted lines) in the making, and the theory says, that there is an 80% chance that the mid-line will be reached.

EUR/USD - Strong support ahead

As resistance at 144.41 held firm we are now seeing strong support at 141.55 challenged. The odds for this support to protect the downside is very high. The MACD-Indicator is showing positive divergence supporting a bottom soon.
A break above 142.76 would be first good indication that the double Zig-zag from 149.39 is over, while a break above 144.23 confirms the bottom.

A clear break below 141.55 will be of concern and would call for a continuation towards 140.25.