EUR/USD - The correction is clearly over

The break below the support line at 130.53 confirms that the correction is over at the next target is the 129.64 low, where I expects wave i of 5 to end. Bulldozer in a comment to my EUR/USD comment yesterday, see the link, that it looked like a possible Shoulder/Head/Shoulder. As can be seen it could very well be a S/H/S calling for a continuation down to 116.75.
(http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/01/eurusd-correction-over.html#comments)

The hourly chart below shows the micro count. We should be close to a minor bottom in wave v of 5 down. The momentum indicator has entered oversold territory confirming, that the down is be coming limited or more bumpy from here.

Gold and Silver - Topping?

Trying to call a top in in these two shining metals, has come with embarrassment, but just looking at the weekly gold-chart, clearly displays that a five wave rally from 680 is in place. At the same time a possible triple top could be in making, but before the "neckline" at 1,360 breaks. I'll just call for the possibility.

The chart below is the 4-hourly chart showing the triple top close-up.

I have no Elliott wave counts on the silver charts.

The two charts below is the weekly silver chart (the upper chart) and the daily silver chart below.
It's possible that a important top is in place. The channel resistance-line was slightly broken followed by a break below the minor rising support-line since 18.32 in late May (the lower chart is the collapsing trend in close-up).

S&P 500 - One step closer to the top

The new high today keeps the uptrend intact, and gets us one step closer to the ideal target area between 1,289 - 1,291. That said it's also time to protect yourself from a sudden turn around.

We now have a very clear five wave rally from 1,011.52, which does limit the upside for at least a correction towards the 1,173 area. Wave patterns have a tendency to become more clear towards the end of a major top or bottom.

I will lift my stop to just below the 1,262.72 bottom, to protect myself for a sudden turn around.

I will even try a minor short at that point with a stop just above the high set for this uptrend.

The big question is whether this is wave "C" in total or just wave "1" of "C"?

Time will tell!

EUR/USD - Correction over?

Did the correction end at 134.33 yesterday? If support at 132,48 breaks, then the answer is yes.
Odds do favor a break below this support soon, which will open for a decline to the longer supportline near 131,00.

If however 132.48 against all odds holds and we break back above 133.60, we should see a new attack on the 134.90 resistance.

The alternate count is, that a triangle is building, where we have just ended wave "c" at 134.33 and are now building wave "d".

EUR/CHF - A bottom is in place

On december 22 - 2010 I wrote, that a bottom could be very close at hand. I had the next support at 124.80, which was broken for for an overshoot to 124.00. With the rally we have seen today the odds do favor a bottom is in place for a rally towards the top of wave 4 at 137,75 - 138,35. (The chart below is a close-up of the above chart).

The big question is if the test of 124.00 marked a major bottom or if it "just" marks a temporary bottom and further declinces will be seen later. The current price action will reveal that later.

EUR/USD - The never ending story?

The sideways action since the beginning of December is becoming an never ending story.

The correction has become way to big to be a wave 4, so it's likely to be some kind of "X" wave. The is no impulse seen, but instead a lot of overlap rising the odds that this is some kind of correction.

I still think that we are looking at a double correction, which still could move higher towards the 134.90 area, before rolling over to the downside again. The last part of the rally should ideally follow the red dotted line, but lets see what develops from here.

S&P 500 - Closing in on the top

The above chart shows the weekly S&P 500 since August 2008. I still see the rally since early March 2009 as a correction and not a new impulse, therefore I have count the rally from 666.92 to 1,219.61 as wave A. Looking at wave A you will see, that wave 1 of A took 14 weeks, while wave 3 took twice the time of wave 1 = 28 weeks and finally wave 5 was a bit short and took only 12 weeks.

Looking at the rally since the wave B low at 1,011.52. it's possible to count a five wave rally, which makes the upside limited at this point.
The ideal top for this rally would be in the area from 1,289 - 1,291. If we look at the waves since the 1,01152 low wave i took 5 weeks. Wave iii took twice the time of wave 1 = 10 weeks. If the relationship from wave A stays the same then wave v should take the same amount of time wave i took = 5 weeks, that amount of time was spend with the close on December 31 - 2010. So from a time point of view a top could be in place with the 1,262.58 high.

If a high is seen we should soon see a decline towards the 1,166 - 1,173 area.

However due to the principle of alternation it might seem more likely that wave v would take longer time than wave i and extend the rally towards the ideal target area in the 1,289 - 1,291 zone. But be aware that we can count five waves at this point in time, which does limit the upside potential from here (if any...)

The chart below is an hourly chart of the rally since 1,011.52 low (B).
The aggressive trade would stop longs out just below 1,251.48 and maybe even try a small short position with a close stop above the 1,262.58 if support at 1,251.48 gives away.
The less aggressive trade would hang on to longs for a move closer to the ideal target area in the 1,289 - 1,291 zone or wait for a break below 1,241,54 before closing longs and maybe even initiate a short position with a stop just above 1,262.58.