Elliott Wave Analysis of Feeder Cattle - Testing strong resistance near 365

 

Testing strong resistance near 365

It has been a while since I looked at Feeder Cattle and what a ride it has been since the 2020 low at 103.95. 

Currently Feeder Cattle is testing strong resistance near 365 and a long-term top could be close at hand. We can count a nice 5 wave rally from the 1976 low at 36.55. The rally from the low to the top is 1000% an close to a 50 year rally. 

I don't have data going back longer than April 1976, so it's of cause possible that we have seen lower levels in 1975, but approximately is fine by when we are talking 50 year trends. 

Short term a break below 353 will indicate a long-term top being in place, while a break below 337 will confirm that top a call for a corrective decline towards at least 203 and possibly closer to 164 in the years to come.  

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil - Has wave 2 completed or is more downside to 42 needed first?

 Has wave 2 completed or is more downside to 42 needed first?

I think the chances for wave 2 being complete at 55.12 or may need one more decline closer to 42.00 is 50/50.

The minimum corrective decline to the 38.2% correction of wave 1 has been fulfilled, but a deeper decline to the 50% corrective target at 42.00 is absolutely still a possibility, but once this decline is complete a new strong rally towards the former peaks at 130 and 147 should be expected and ultimately a break above 147 is in the cards. 

That said, it's to early to go all-in as wave 2 could dip closer to 42.00 before completing. Only a direct break above resistance at 78.40 will confirm wave 2 already being complete and wave 3 higher to 130 being in motion.  

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Preferred Long-Term View

 

Elliott  Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Preferred Long-Term View  

I last updated my preferred long term count/view back in January 25, 2021 and was looking for a rally in wave C towards long-term resistance in the 2,0000 - 2,1200 area.

Well it turned out that wave 4 of the ending diagonal in wave C/ of B became more complex than I expected then and a final dip lower to 1.0354 was needed to complete wave 5 of C of B. 

With wave B complete I am looking for wave C to take us all the way higher to the 2,0000 - 2,12000 area. 

The next solid resistance to look for is seen near 1,4234. We should expect this resistance to cap the ongoing rally for a period of consolidation before the next major rally higher towards 1,7100 and ultimately higher into the 2,0000 - 2,1200 area. 

Elliott Wave Analysis on Gold - Wave iv of 5 could be close to completion

  Wave iv of 5 could be close to completion

In my February 11, 2025 post (You can see that post by clicking here) led for a rally towards 3,100 as the possible to for wave 5. Well we saw gold spike right through resistance towards a peak at 3,500 and since then gold has traded sideways in a wave iv triangle formation. 

This triangle formation could be close to completion for the next spike higher towards 3,674 and maybe even higher, but be aware that triangles is a warning that the next move in the direction of the underlying trend will be the final and a larger correction will follow. 

That said, for now we should look for signs that wave iv of 5 has completed and a break above minor resistance at 3,409 will be a strong indication that wave v of 5 is unfolding. 

In the unlikely event a break below support at 3,321 is seen, the triangle will drag out in time and a more prolonged triangle is unfolding, but ultimately one more rally higher should be expected.  

Is Livermore's "Accumulation Cylinder" in play for Bitcoin?

 

Is Livermore's "Accumulation Cylinder" in play for Bitcoin?

It looks like Livermor's Accumulation Cylinder is in play for Bitcoin/USD. If this is correct, then the first major impact is, that Bitcoin/USD likely has peaked for now and a decline to 67,500 and maybe even as low as 37,700 should be expected in the coming years. 

As bad as that may sound for the Bulls the future implication for Bitcoin/USD is super bullish as once point 7 in Livermore's Accumulation Cylinder is complete a major rally to at least USD 300,000 should be expected. 

That said it will take a break below support at 98,240 to confirm that a top is in place and a major correction towards 67,500 unfolding. 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nikkei 225 - Major top could be in place at 42,555

 

Major corrective top could be in place at 42,555

My preferred count for the Nikkei 225 calls for a major decline in the coming years after a likely peak at 42,555. 

As the chart above shows decline from the December 1989 peak at 38,950 to the 2003 low at 7,603 was a large wave (A) and wave (B) was an expanded flat where wave C of (B) extended to the 42,555 high. I do expect this was the the top of wave (B) and wave (C) lower to at least 6,791 should be under way. 

A break below support at 30,518 will confirm the wave (B) has completed and wave (C) lower is unfolding. 

What could possibly trigger a decline like that in the Japanese stock market? I think that the major coming "Black Swan" event, that will trigger a major sell-off in the global stock markets is going to be debt. In the forefront of public debt is Japan. With a debt-ratio over 200% to GDP and this debt burden has just got worse as a major sell-off in Japanese bonds has pushed rates higher to 3,16%.  

Japan is not the only country with a huge debt-burden. After the Covid and all countries adding out of this world liquidity, which has pushed inflation higher world-wide. It looks like the global debt burden finally has reached a level, that no longer is manageable.  

The unmanageable public debt will likely keep pushing rates higher globally and eventually turn the global stock markets lower from their peaks.  

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD - Circle wave 3 is well under way next target seen near 1.2370

Circle wave 3 is well under way next target seen near 1.2370

On February 5 I called the bottom of circle wave 2 and the onset of circle wave 3 upon a break above minor resistance at 1.0467 (You can see that mail by clicking here).

The long-term resistance-line from the 2008 high at 1.6038 is currently being tested near 1.1287 and once broken the upside will be open for much more upside progress towards the next larger resistance-zone between 1.2250 - 1.2325. However, the long term target for the ongoing rally in wave 3 or C is seen at 1.8147 and maybe higher. 

Support is now seen at near 1.1050 which is expected to protect the downside as the USD continues lower. 

S&P 500 - Bearish Divergence Calls For A Decline To 3,775

S&P 500 - Bearish Divergence Calls For A Decline To 3,775 

A bearish divergence has been building for the RSI indicator since January 2018 where the indicator peaked near 88 on a monthly basis. In Elliott wave counting a peak in the RSI is most likely the end of wave 3 of 3 and therefore we should expect more upside to come as wave 3 finally came to and end in January 2022 and gave way for a correction in wave 4 and finally the ultimate run in wave 5 a new all time high at 6,147. 

When testing the 6,147 high the S&P 500 also tested the pitch fork resistance-line, which hasn't been tested since the 2000 peak at 1,552. 

In conjunction with my April 1 post, we now have two different analysis calling for a lager correction in the S&P 500. This fits nicely into all the uncertainty Trump currently is unloading into the markets, with tariffs etc. 

I will be looking for a decline to at least 3,775 which marks the 38,2% correction of the rally from the 1932 low at 4.4 to the 6,147 peak in 2025. 

We could well look into another lost decade as we did from 2000 to 2009.  

US 10Y - US 2Y Yield Says A Major Correction In The S&P 500 Should Be Expected

US 10Y - US 2Y vs S&P 500

On January 30 - 2024 I made a post calling for a major correction in the S&P 500 index once the US 10Y - US 2Y yield pushed above the zero line (You can see that post by clicking here). After the US 10Y - US 2Y yield had been inverted since July 2022 this inversion finally came to an end in September 2024 indicating that a major correction in the S&P 500 should be expected in the near future. 

This indicator is of cause not a timing tool, but a clear indication that the S&P 500 is ready to start building a top. In the current case it looks as the a top has been build from November 2024 to February 2025 and a major correction should unfold during the coming years. 

The first major downside target to be looking for is seen near 4,855, while a continuation lower to 4,056 would be very likely. 

Once we get down there I will review the possibilities of maybe even lower targets.  

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Closing in on resistance at 3,100

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Closing in on resistance at 3,100

Almost a year ago, when gold was trading near 2,175 I said that a monthly close above resistance at 2,172 would call for a continuation towards the next upside target at 3,100 (You can see that post by clicking here).

Well almost a year after Gold is closing in on the 3,100 target fast. I would expect the 3,100 target to act as a strong resistance, that's not going to be broken and set-up gold for a larger corrective decline towards strong support at 2,172 and ultimately a continuation lower to the bottom of wave (4) near 1,050. 

However, for now we should look for a firm test of the long-term target at 3,100 and then see what gold has in store for us. 

In my March 2024 post I call for silver to break firmly above resistance at 30.00, which we have seen, but silver still needs to accelerate higher towards the long-term resistance at 50.00. I still expect this to happen, but obviously at its own pace...  

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD - Wave 3 is ready to unfold towards at least 1.8147

 

Wave 3 is ready to unfold towards at least 1.8147

EUR/USD began a major upswing in October 2000 from a low of 0.8231. Wave 1 or A moved up to a high of 1.6038 from where wave 2 or B initiated. Wave 2 or B completed with the test of 0.9536 in late September 2022 and wave 3 or C has been in its infancy since then. We have seen circle wave 1 move up to 1.1276 and circle wave 2 followed with an almost perfect 61.8% correction of circle wave 1 to complete at 1.0176 and circle wave 3 should now be expected towards at least 1.3000 and more likely extend much higher towards 1.6500. 

Short-term a break above minor resistance at 1.0467 will be a strong indication that circle wave 2 is done and circle wave 3 is working its way higher. 

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave 5 in motion for a rally towards 182.95

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave 5 in motion for a rally towards 182.95

It' has been a while since I last reviewed EUR/JPY. On April 18 this year EUR/JPY was testing resistance at 164.17, which at that time I thought was the top of wave 3. However, it quickly turned out that it wasn't the top of wave 3, but rather the top of wave iii of 3 and more upside should be expected towards the next resistance near 175.66 which marked the 261.8% extension target of wave 1. 

Wave 3 peaked at 171.79 but the the B-wave of the following wave 4 tested the expected 175.66 target before a deep wave C dipped to test the low of wave iv of 4 and the 38.2% corrective target of wave 3 at 153.56. 

Wave 5 is now in motion and should see a rally towards resistance at 182.95 before completing the rally out of 2020 low at 114.20. 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee - Next stop USD 300

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee - Next stop USD 300

Coffee completed a large triangle consolidation as wave Y of 4 in January 2023 and has since moved higher to test and break the triangle resistance-line near 250 and is now headed towards the next resistance at 300. 

If this resistance is broken and I expect it will be broken then the next long-term stop is see at 576. We will see the former tops at 318 and 340 give some temporary protection, but they shouldn't anything other that temporary stops before the match higher towards 576 is seen. 

That said, it's important what's gone happen near resistance at 300. If coffee fails to clear this resistance and starts to move lower again, we could see the the consolidation from 1977 continue for another 22 years as the final corrective wave "Z" unfolds. This is not my preferred count, but an option we can't exclude at this point in time. 

The job is to find the possible future path for coffee, which for now is up towards 300 and then let's evaluate the most likely future price-action for coffee. 

 

Elliott wave count for Crude Oil - Bottom could be in place

CRUDE OIL 

Elliott wave count for Crude Oil - Bottom could be in place

After a 2½ year decline from the March 2022 peak at 130.50 crude could finally could have found a bottom a new strong rally could in front of us. 

If a bottom is in place, we should see support at 63.64 protect the downside for a above minor resistance at 73.82 and more importantly a break above resistance at 77.60 that will confirm that wave 2 have completed and a strong wave 3 is in front of us for a really above 130.50

If, however support at 63.64 is broken, then the corrective decline from 130.50 remains in place for a decline towards 45.09 before the corrective decline from 130.50 completes and a new impulsive rally should be expected.   

Silver shows a giant cup with handle formation

 

Silver - Giant Cup With Handle

I have been tracking this giant cup with handle formation for years now. There is still a long way to this formation is triggered, which it will be if silver breaks above resistance at USD 48. Such a break will call for a continuation higher to around USD 100 pr. ounce silver. 

If, however you look closely on the smaller formation build from ultimo 2012 and till today you will see a smaller cup with handle formation, that just has been triggered with the break above resistance at USD 28 and this formation calls for a rally higher to test the long term resistance at USD 48. 

I expect that silver after some sideways consolidation between USD 28-30 will start rallying higher towards USD 35 as the next resistance and ultimately higher to test the long-term resistance at 48. 

 

US 10Y - US 2Y Yields About To Cross Back Over The Zero-line - Recession Coming

US 10Y - US 2Y Yield

Every time we have seen an inverted yield-curve, that turns back above the zero-line the US economy enters into recession. We saw a reversion from the inverted yield-curve back to normal in 1989; 2001 and 2007. Every time a recession followed in the US. 

The US 10Y - US 2Y yield-curve has been inverted since July 2022 which is the longest period ever and it will likely trigger a serious economic recession in the US once the yield-curve break back above the zero-line. 

In physics we have the law of action and reaction. Newton's third law states that "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction". As the central banks has printed money as there was no tomorrow, creating enormous wealth. We should expect and equal strong force destroying the wealth created.

I'm not saying the recession has begun or hard times for the economy has begun, as I expect the central banks will do almost everything in the power to obstruct economic hard times. What I'm saying is that the US is facing strong head-winds in the months to come and eventually will enter into a strong recession down the road.

Don't be on the wrong side of the coming downturn.      

End of the Petro-Dollar

 

I missed this news story at first, but it caught my eye yesterday. I think it's interesting that the news more or less has ignored this story, because it's huge. 

Of cause some of the oil from Saudi Arabia still will be sold in US-dollars, but it might only be a minor part of the oil. The rest will be sold in EUR, YEN and Chinese RMB etc. 

As the article says, it has been one of the corner stones in the US economy and this corner stone has now been removed. It doesn't necessary make the card-house fall, but it makes it much more vulnerable. 

Over the last few years, we have also seen a decline in other major countries buying Treasury bonds. A role that the Federal Reserve has taken over instead, but it does weaken the US-dollars position as the main reserve currency. Losing the position as the main reserve currency will weaken the US in the long run and heightens the risk of global tensions in the years to come. 

I'm not convinced, that the US will be willing to give up its status as the global power number one without some kind of fight. 

I do expect that the coming years could bring about a major upheaval, that will shift the status of the US as the largest global power to someone else, but it will not be a smooth transition, that's for sure.   

Elliott Wave Analysis of the 10Y US Treasury Yield - Wave C down to 3.23% is in motion

Elliott Wave Analysis of the 10Y US Treasury Yield - Wave C down to 3.23% is in motion

In my April 15 post I called for a top near 4.59% to complete wave B and then a decline in wave C towards strong support near 3.23%.

We have seen wave B peak at 4.74% and wave C is now in motion with the 3.23% target as the goal. 

Resistance is now seen at 4.51%, which is expected to protect the upside as wave C make its way lower towards the 3.23% target. 

The decline in rates will likely spark a money-bowering frenzy and finally push the economy over the brink and start a 4 year economic decline. I expect this economic decline to happen in the early part of 2025. 

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave 4 correction is ongoing

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave 4 correction is ongoing 

EUR/JPY broke out of the 12 year triangle in December 2020 and has since rallied nicely to test resistance at 164.17 which marked the 161.8% extension of wave 1. With wave 3 in place I'm looking for a more prolonged correction in wave 4 and ultimately a decline to test support at 151.67 before wave 5 takes over and pushes EUR/JPY to new highs and ideally a rally towards 195.43 where wave [A] and [C] will be equal in length. 

  

Elliott Wave Analysis of the US 10Y Yield - Has likely peaked with the test of 4.59

Elliott Wave Analysis of the US 10Y Yield - Has likely peaked with the test of 4.59

In my March 1'st post I called for a rally towards 4.48% and expected a peak nearby. We have now see the 10Y US Treasury bonds run to a high of 4.59% and I expect that we have seen wave B peak and wave C now should take over for a decline towards support near 3.23 from where the next strong rally is expected. 

We will need to see a break below support at 4.34% to confirm that wave B has peaked and wave C is in motion.