Elliott wave analysis - US 10Y Yield Correcting Historical Rally

 

US 10Y Yield Correcting Historical Rally

The 10 year US bond yield is currently correcting the historical rally from 0.33% in March 202 to 5.03% in October 2023. We have seen wave A of this correction, which likely is complete with the test of 3,92% support and wave B is ready to unfold towards resistance near 4.51% before wave C takes over for a decline towards 3.23% to complete the correction from 5.03 and set the stage for the next impulsive rally higher towards 7.91%.

This also means that the central banks don't have control over the inflation as they think they have. 

Elliott wave analysis - Gold is ready for a rally towards 2,700

 Gold is ready for a rally towards 2,700

Gold is in a long-term uptrend and we have already seen the first, but failed, attempt to break above the former all-time high at 2,072. I do expect the next attempt to be successful and break clearly above the former peak at 2,072 for a rally towards at least 2,400 and likely even closer to resistance at 2,700. 

If we see gold in a blow-off rally, then we could see gold move as high as 5,000, but only time will show if this is the case. 

Long-term support is seen at 1,810. This support should not be broken at anytime or a revisit to support at 1,614 will be seen.  

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD - New Impulsive Wave Beginning

 

EUR/USD New Impulsive Wave Beginning

EUR/USD is currently in a major uptrend that began back in October 2000 when EUR/USD tested the low of 0.8412. From that low we saw a five wave rally to 1.6038 in July 2008. This peak was followed by a double zig-zag correction that finished with the September 2022 low at 0.9536 from where a new impulsive rally is unfolding. 

We saw circle wave 1 rally from the 0.9536 low to 1.0998 followed by an expanded flat correction in circle wave 2 that completed with the test of 1.0448 and circle wave 3 is now ready to push higher towards at least 1.2962. 

When a wave 2 correction turns into an expanded flat correction. An extended rally should follow and in this case we will be looking for circle wave 3 to be at least 161.8% the length of circle wave 1, which calls for a rally towards to at least 1.2962 and maybe even higher. 

Short-term I will expect minor support at 1.0827 to be able to act as a floor for the next strong push higher through resistance at 1.1017 for a rally towards 1.1276 and 1.1495 on the way higher towards 1.2962 and possibly above. 

Elliott wave analysis - Cocoa Is Peaking

 

Cocoa Is Peaking

Cocoa has since the bottom in April 2017 at 1,756 been moving higher in a three wave pattern. Wave B of this three wave pattern was clearly a triangle that concluded wave e of B in September 2022 at 2,192 and wave C has since dominated with a strong five wave rally. However, wave C is now peaking and we should soon see cocoa starting to move lower towards at least the low of wave iv of C at 3,372 and likely even closer to strong support seen near 2,945.  

That cocoa is peaking is also supported by the cycle analysis where the composite cycle of the 53,    57, 62 and 67 day cycle now is turning lower into the end of the year. This turn lower should weight on cocoa and push it lower in the days and weeks to come as cocoa move towards 3,372 and likely    closer to 2,945.