Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Long term count updated

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Long term count updated 

In my July 30 - 2019 post (You can read that post by clicking here) I called for a final dip in Cable to 1.0842. Cable did make a new low in wave C of B to 1.1414 and missed my ideal target, but still the direction was correct and the call for one more new low below 1.1950 was spot on. 

Since the dip to 1.1414 we have seen Cable recover nicely and has even broken clearly above the ending diagonal resistance-line near 1.3105 indicating a return to the start of the wedge at 2.1161 in about half the time it took to build the ending diagonal. indicating testing 2.1161 within the next 6-7 years. 

Near term I expect support to be seen near 1.3276 for a continuation higher to 1.4191. 

Only an unexpected break below support at 1.2676 will delay my long-term bullish outlook for a dip closer to 1.2132 before turning higher again. This is not my preferred outlook, but a possibility as long as the new uptrend from 1.1414 is more mature. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CHF - Bottom in place?

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CHF - Bottom in place?

USD/CHF has been declining since the January 2017 peak at 1.0335. The decline is best view as corrective in nature indicating, that this decline is an (X)-wave and a push to new highs above 1.0335 ultimately should be expected. 

That said, the question whether the (X)-wave from January 2017 is complete with the test of 0.8757? A good case can be made, that a bottom is in place and a new rally is developing. 

To confirm, that a new impulsive rally is developing, we need a break above minor resistance at 0.8922 and more importantly we will need to see solid resistance at 0.9174 give away for a push towards 0.9556 on the way to the 2017 peak at 1.0335. 

If, however resistance at 0.8922 is able to protect the upside for renewed downside pressure through support at 0.8757 then a continuation of the corrective down-trend should see a dip closer to 0.8584 and in its extreme a dip to 0.8110 could be seen, but this is not my preferred view at the moment. 

Remember that the trend and patience are your friends

Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500 - Peaking

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500 - Peaking

The S&P 500 index could be close to completion of the uptrend since March 2009. The ideal target for wave 5 is seen at 3,877 where wave 5 will be 61.8% of the length traveled from the low of wave 1 through the top of wave 3 added to the low of wave 4.

Zooming in of the final rally in wave 5 we can count five sub-wave higher from the low of wave 4 and the final sub-wave 5/ is turning into a wedge indicating a possible top is close. A break below the Wedge support-line at 3,789 will indicate a completion of wave 5, while a break below support at 3,778 will confirm the completion of wave 5 and the on-set of a larger corrective decline. 

All time-frames from the 5 minutes to the monthly are flashing negative divergence for the RSI indicating a possible top should be expected soon. However, it's important to remember that divergence can last for very extended periods of time. Especially the longer-time frames as the weekly and monthly can diverge for years, before the top finally is in place.

As always the trend and patience are your friends, but it's time to tighten up your stops as the possibility of a major top could be nearby.    

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nikkei 225 - S/H/S bottom points to 34,090

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nikkei 225 - S/H/S bottom points to 34,090

The Nikkei 225 has been in an impulsive rally since the early March 2009 low at 6,971. We are now in the final wave 5 higher and the huge S/H/S bottom points higher towards 34,090, while the pict fork sees resistance near 29,860. 

The cycles all bottoms ultimo January so the risk of a short, but powerful decline is clearly possible. However I think it's more likely that we move into the next cycle still heading higher towards 29,860 and maybe even closer to the S/H/S target at 34,090 before a larger correction starts to unfold. 

That said, we need to keep an eye on support at 26,969 as a break below here, will be an indication that wave 5 has completed and a larger correction of the entire rally from March 2009 to the current highs is beginning. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

Cycle Analysis on Bitcoin - Will break higher or lower?

 

Cycle Analysis on Bitcoin - Will break higher or lower?

After Bitcoin rallied from a low of 3,850 in mid-March to a high of 42,000 in early January the big question is whether Bitcoin will break out of the ongoing triangle consolidation to the upside or we will see a break-down?

Looking at the long- and short-term cycles they point higher after bottoming in early January, which does favor a continuation of the underlying uptrend to new all-time highs above 42,000 once the triangle consolidation comes to an end. 

We could see the triangle consolidation become more prolonged and continue to trade sideways for longer, but there isn't the need for it to continue inside the triangle consolidation. 

If the upside pressure fails and the break out of the triangle consolidation is seen to the downside , then a decline to 28,374 should be expected before a new rally to new all-time highs. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

 

Tesla and the Eiffel Tower

 

Tesla and the Eiffel Tower

What does the rate of Tesla and the Eiffel Tower have in common - Not much, but the rate of Tesla now resembles the rise of the left side of the Eiffel Tower and prices that accelerates in this fashion has a tendency to peak and see an equal fast decline resembling the right side of the tower. 

I don't know, when the price of Tesla peaks, but one thing I know for sure is, that it will peak at some point and prices of Tesla will come tumbling down once the peak is in place. 

Also I think that the peak is nearby and the potential upside is much less, than the potential downside. I will be looking for Tesla to peak near the 890 - 895 area. The first good indication of a peak is a break below 817 ideally with a gap lower just after the peak, but only time will show. 

Once Tesla peaks, we will all look back and think "what was everybody thinking", but it's much easier to know what one should have done once everything is clear in the rearview mirror.

Be careful and keep you stops tight here. 

   

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY - 4 year correction is likely complete

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY - 4 year correction is likely complete

USD/JPY saw a temporary peak at 118.67 in late December 2016 and has since been in a descending correction towards 102.56 as the low on January 5 - 2021 from where we have seen a small five wave advance to a high of 104.22. This is likely the first strong indication that the a new log-term impulse rally now is unfolding. 

Short-term I will be looking for a temporary set-back to the 103.19-103.39 area from where a new impulsive rally though the former peak at 104.22 for a rally towards 105.47 and above here confirm that the correction through 4 years has completed and a new long-term impulsive rally is building. Ultimately I will be looking for a re-test and break through the former peak at 118.67 towards 125.86. 

Buying in the 103.19 - 103.39 will likely prove to be a high profit long-term trade. Place a stop at 102.50 keeping risk at a minimum. 

The trend and patience are your friends.