Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Wave 4 likely complete at 1,677

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Wave 4 likely complete at 1,677

Gold has been in a descending correction since the 2,075 peak in early August 2020. I count this decline as a wave 4 correction, which means we still have wave 5 higher to come. 

In my view wave 4 completed with the test of 1,677 and wave 5 is now developing and should ultimately break clearly above the former peak at 2,075. The cycles also confirms that a important low should be in place and the upside will be the dominating in the weeks/months to come. 

In the commodity universe wave 5 extends and becomes equal in length to the start of wave 1 to the peak of wave 3 which gives us a target at 2,704, but we could easily see wave 5 extend well beyond that target towards the 161.8% extension target at 3,339. 

Short-term, I would like to see resistance at 1,765 break as a solid indication that wave 4 now is complete and wave 5 is developing. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends 

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 Index - This could be bad...

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 Index - This could be bad... 

The trendline support for March 2020 low is being tested and on the hourly chart, we first saw a small S/H/S top now followed by a potential invers Cup with Handle and a break below the neckline at 3,808 could spark the S&P 500 lower to 3,665 and potentially much lower. 

Both the long-term and the shorter term counts all indicates a more serious top could be in place, but we need more clear evidence before being able to conclude this is in fact the case. So be on the outlook for a break below support at 3,694 that will indicate a top is in place. 

We have all the ingrediency, but will the be mixed correctly? Time will show...

Remember the trend and patience are your friends 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee - Descending trendline from 2011 finally conquered

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee - Descending trendline from 2011 finally conquered 

Coffee has finally broken the 10 year descending trendline dating back to May 2011. The break completes a super longer term and super complex wave IV correction that began way back in April 1977 and we should now be looking for an extended rally in wave V to way above the wave III peak at 339.90.

Short-term we should expect resistance near 146.95 will be able to cap the upside for a temporary correction towards 116.50 before the next strong rally, that is expected to break clearly above 146.95 for a rally towards 219 and longer-term above the wave III peak at 339.90

We are still in the infancy for this new impulsive rally, but ultimately it should pick up momentum for much higher levels. 

Remember that the trend and patience are your friends

Elliott Wave Analysis of Copper - Copper is peaking after a nice run

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Copper - Copper is peaking after a nice run

After bottoming at 1.97 in March Copper has seen a nice strong run, but is now late in the cycle of the first impulsive run higher. 

The five wave rally of the 1.97 low has been made up off an extended first wave. Calling for equality in length between wave i and wave iii through to the peak of wave v which calls for a peak at 3.9535 from where a more prolonged correction should be expected. 

The ideal target for the correction in 2 is seen at the top of wave i calling for a decline to 2.9930 from where wave 3 can take  over for the next powerful run higher. 

For now let's focus of the final move closer to the 3.9535 target and the correction to follow. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends  

Huge S/H/S bottom in Litecoin

 Huge S/H/S bottom in Litecoin

While Bitcoin and Ethereum already has taken off and eclipsed the 2018 highs. Litecoin is lagging only trading near USD 182, but that is about to change. 

Over the last 3 years Litecoin/USD has formed a huge Shoulder/Head/Shoulder bottom with a neckline at 178.70. Litecoin closed above this neckline resistance for the first time yesterday activating the bottom-formation for a rally to the S/H/S target at 324.63 - Pretty close to the 2018 peak at 357. 

So it's time to board the ship for a nice cruise higher towards the 324 target. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends 

Ethereum/USD - Huge Cup With Handle activated

 

Ethereum/USD - Huge Cup With Handle activated

Ethereum has broken clearly above the Cup with handle neck-line at 1,385 which has activated the huge formation for a continuation higher towards the formation-objective at 2,674. The way to measure the target of a cup with handle is to measure from the bottom of the formation to the top of the formation and add the distance to the break-out point, which in this case gives a objective at 2,674.

The neckline at 1,385 will act a strong support in case a back-test is needed before the next part of the uptrend takes place.

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500 - Expanded flat wave ii correction near completion

Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500 - Expanded flat wave ii correction near completion

On January 22 I called for a completion of the ending diagonal (You can see that post by clicking here). On January 27 the ending diagonal support-line was broken near 3,815 indicating the completion of the formation that has been building since October 2020. 

The decline following the break below the ending diagonal support-line is in five waves indicating more downside pressure to come after a correction in wave ii. This wave ii correction has developed into an expanded flat, this indicates an extended decline should be expected in wave iii. 

The first extension target for wave iii is seen at 3,588 followed by 3,550. 

Short-term a break below minor support at 3,824 will indicate the completion of wave ii and that wave iii lower to at least 3,588 is unfolding. 

Stay tuned for renewed downside pressure soon. 

Remember that the trend and patience are your friends

Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver - Huge Cup With Handle developing

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver - Huge Cup With Handle developing

An 8 year Cup with handle has been developing in silver and the formation is about to be triggered. A break above the neckline at 29.90 will activate the huge bottom formation for a rally towards at least 39.90 and ideally closer to the 161.8% extension target at 50.95.

Support is currently seen at 27.60 with key-support seen at 26.04 which will need to protect the downside for the expected break above 29.90. 

An unexpected break below 26.04 will call for a new dip to 21.90 before pushing higher again. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Long term count updated

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Long term count updated 

In my July 30 - 2019 post (You can read that post by clicking here) I called for a final dip in Cable to 1.0842. Cable did make a new low in wave C of B to 1.1414 and missed my ideal target, but still the direction was correct and the call for one more new low below 1.1950 was spot on. 

Since the dip to 1.1414 we have seen Cable recover nicely and has even broken clearly above the ending diagonal resistance-line near 1.3105 indicating a return to the start of the wedge at 2.1161 in about half the time it took to build the ending diagonal. indicating testing 2.1161 within the next 6-7 years. 

Near term I expect support to be seen near 1.3276 for a continuation higher to 1.4191. 

Only an unexpected break below support at 1.2676 will delay my long-term bullish outlook for a dip closer to 1.2132 before turning higher again. This is not my preferred outlook, but a possibility as long as the new uptrend from 1.1414 is more mature. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CHF - Bottom in place?

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CHF - Bottom in place?

USD/CHF has been declining since the January 2017 peak at 1.0335. The decline is best view as corrective in nature indicating, that this decline is an (X)-wave and a push to new highs above 1.0335 ultimately should be expected. 

That said, the question whether the (X)-wave from January 2017 is complete with the test of 0.8757? A good case can be made, that a bottom is in place and a new rally is developing. 

To confirm, that a new impulsive rally is developing, we need a break above minor resistance at 0.8922 and more importantly we will need to see solid resistance at 0.9174 give away for a push towards 0.9556 on the way to the 2017 peak at 1.0335. 

If, however resistance at 0.8922 is able to protect the upside for renewed downside pressure through support at 0.8757 then a continuation of the corrective down-trend should see a dip closer to 0.8584 and in its extreme a dip to 0.8110 could be seen, but this is not my preferred view at the moment. 

Remember that the trend and patience are your friends

Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500 - Peaking

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500 - Peaking

The S&P 500 index could be close to completion of the uptrend since March 2009. The ideal target for wave 5 is seen at 3,877 where wave 5 will be 61.8% of the length traveled from the low of wave 1 through the top of wave 3 added to the low of wave 4.

Zooming in of the final rally in wave 5 we can count five sub-wave higher from the low of wave 4 and the final sub-wave 5/ is turning into a wedge indicating a possible top is close. A break below the Wedge support-line at 3,789 will indicate a completion of wave 5, while a break below support at 3,778 will confirm the completion of wave 5 and the on-set of a larger corrective decline. 

All time-frames from the 5 minutes to the monthly are flashing negative divergence for the RSI indicating a possible top should be expected soon. However, it's important to remember that divergence can last for very extended periods of time. Especially the longer-time frames as the weekly and monthly can diverge for years, before the top finally is in place.

As always the trend and patience are your friends, but it's time to tighten up your stops as the possibility of a major top could be nearby.    

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nikkei 225 - S/H/S bottom points to 34,090

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nikkei 225 - S/H/S bottom points to 34,090

The Nikkei 225 has been in an impulsive rally since the early March 2009 low at 6,971. We are now in the final wave 5 higher and the huge S/H/S bottom points higher towards 34,090, while the pict fork sees resistance near 29,860. 

The cycles all bottoms ultimo January so the risk of a short, but powerful decline is clearly possible. However I think it's more likely that we move into the next cycle still heading higher towards 29,860 and maybe even closer to the S/H/S target at 34,090 before a larger correction starts to unfold. 

That said, we need to keep an eye on support at 26,969 as a break below here, will be an indication that wave 5 has completed and a larger correction of the entire rally from March 2009 to the current highs is beginning. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

Cycle Analysis on Bitcoin - Will break higher or lower?

 

Cycle Analysis on Bitcoin - Will break higher or lower?

After Bitcoin rallied from a low of 3,850 in mid-March to a high of 42,000 in early January the big question is whether Bitcoin will break out of the ongoing triangle consolidation to the upside or we will see a break-down?

Looking at the long- and short-term cycles they point higher after bottoming in early January, which does favor a continuation of the underlying uptrend to new all-time highs above 42,000 once the triangle consolidation comes to an end. 

We could see the triangle consolidation become more prolonged and continue to trade sideways for longer, but there isn't the need for it to continue inside the triangle consolidation. 

If the upside pressure fails and the break out of the triangle consolidation is seen to the downside , then a decline to 28,374 should be expected before a new rally to new all-time highs. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

 

Tesla and the Eiffel Tower

 

Tesla and the Eiffel Tower

What does the rate of Tesla and the Eiffel Tower have in common - Not much, but the rate of Tesla now resembles the rise of the left side of the Eiffel Tower and prices that accelerates in this fashion has a tendency to peak and see an equal fast decline resembling the right side of the tower. 

I don't know, when the price of Tesla peaks, but one thing I know for sure is, that it will peak at some point and prices of Tesla will come tumbling down once the peak is in place. 

Also I think that the peak is nearby and the potential upside is much less, than the potential downside. I will be looking for Tesla to peak near the 890 - 895 area. The first good indication of a peak is a break below 817 ideally with a gap lower just after the peak, but only time will show. 

Once Tesla peaks, we will all look back and think "what was everybody thinking", but it's much easier to know what one should have done once everything is clear in the rearview mirror.

Be careful and keep you stops tight here. 

   

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY - 4 year correction is likely complete

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY - 4 year correction is likely complete

USD/JPY saw a temporary peak at 118.67 in late December 2016 and has since been in a descending correction towards 102.56 as the low on January 5 - 2021 from where we have seen a small five wave advance to a high of 104.22. This is likely the first strong indication that the a new log-term impulse rally now is unfolding. 

Short-term I will be looking for a temporary set-back to the 103.19-103.39 area from where a new impulsive rally though the former peak at 104.22 for a rally towards 105.47 and above here confirm that the correction through 4 years has completed and a new long-term impulsive rally is building. Ultimately I will be looking for a re-test and break through the former peak at 118.67 towards 125.86. 

Buying in the 103.19 - 103.39 will likely prove to be a high profit long-term trade. Place a stop at 102.50 keeping risk at a minimum. 

The trend and patience are your friends.