Elliott wave analysis of Facebook - Peak expected near 187.17

Facebook - Peak expected at 187.17

Facebook has seen an amazing rally since the September 2012 low at 17.55. This wave [3] rally should be close to completion - Ideally near 187.17 for a correction in wave [4]. As wave [2] was a simple and deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a complex and shallow correction in wave [4]. The ideal target for this wave [4] correction is seen in the 114.77 - 115.93 area. 

The corrective structure of wave [4] should be either a flat or a triangle consolidation. If the corrective structure proves to be a triangle, then the low will be seen early (likely in the A-wave down). 

Short-term a break below minor support at 168.89 will be a good indication that Facebook has peaked in wave [3] and wave [4] is developing. So tighten up your stops and don't fall in love with Facebook at these levels.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

GBP/USD - Monthly Elliott Wave Count

GBP/USD - Daily Elliott Wave Count

GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

Cable is fighting a lot of opposing forces at the moment. The rally in wave 1 stopped just below the 30 year horizontal resistance-line. This line acted as support for Cable since January 1986 and was broken in June 2016, which shifted its position from support to resistance. However, I think the dip below soon will break back above this horizontal pivot point near 1.3700. 

From an Elliott wave point of the view, my long term count shows, that an expanded flat B-wave is developing. We saw wave A rally from the 2009 low at 1.3504 to a high of 1.7191 in July 2014 from where wave B took over. The decline in wave B became almost exactly 138.2% longer than wave A and completed with the test of 1.1950 in October 2016 from where an impulsive rally in wave C took over. We saw wave 1 rally from the 1.1950 low to a high of 1.3658, just below the horizontal pivot point near 1.3700 and the correction in wave 2 is currently developing, for a decline close to the 1.2780 - 1.2822 from where a strong rally is expected in wave 3. 

The long-term cycle analysis also supports a rally in the coming years. The long-term cycle bottom in November 2016, whereas the price bottomed the month before. The next cycle peak is not seen before November 2020, which supports the expectation of a continuation higher over the coming years. 

If we zoom in to the daily chart, we can see, that wave 2 already has completed wave A and B and wave C lower towards the 1.2780 - 1.2822 is developing. Once wave C and 2 completes near the support cluster a strong rally will be expected in wave 3.  

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Elliott Wave Analysis of the German DAX - A potential large degree top could be in place soon

Elliott Wave Analysis of the German DAX - A potential large degree top could be in place soon

In my post from October 5 - 2017 I called for a continuation of the uptrend towards the 13,424 - 13,435 this target was eclipsed today and a large scale top could be seen soon.

A large degree five wave rally can be counted from the March 2009 low of 3,589 and from February 2016 a minute degree five wave rally can be counted.

To indicate that the top is in place, a break below 13,197 and more important a break below support at 12,931 will be needed.

The risk/reward ratio no longer favor the upside, so tighten your stops.

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Elliott Wave analysis of DAX - Short-term exhaustion near 13,029

DAX - Short-term exhaustion expected near 13,029. 

The German DAX posted a new all-time high yesterday at 12,976. This is in line with the expectation of a final rally closer to the resistance cluster-area between 13,424 - 13,435. 

Short-term, the rally from 12,044 looks stretch and is expected to run into a temperary to near 13,029 in wave iii for a correction in wave iv towards 12,797 and the a final impulsive rally into the 13,424 - 13,435 area to complete the impulsive rally, not only, from the February 2016 low at 8,695, but also from the March 2009 low at 3,589. 

Once this impulsive rally is complete a larger corrective decline should be expected, but for now, we need to stay focused towards the upside and the important 13,424 - 13,435 area. 

I would like to add one word of caution. We are in the final stages of the rally from for March 2009 and once the top is in place a larger correction towards at least 8,700 should be expected. This means that from the current level of 12,955 a potential profit of close to 4% is available, but the potential downside risk is close to 33% or almost a 10 to 1 risk/reward. 

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Eliiott Wave Analysis - Brent Crude Oil headed for USD 70.00

Brent Crude Oil headed for USD 70.00

Brent Crude Oil bottomed at the modified Pitchfork support-line near 27.00 and has since rallied nicely higher. Brent Crude oil is now break the resistance-line from the May 2015 high at 69.59, which calls for a continuation higher towards 70.00, which also is where the pitchfork resistance-line is seen in mid-December 2017. 

Depending on the price-action after the 70.00 target has been hit will determine, whether the rally from May 2015 only is a correction or a new impulsive rally. 

For now let's concentrate on the rally higher to 70.00.

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Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Upside acceleration expected

AUD/NZD - Monthly

AUD/NZD - Weekly

AUD/NZD - Daily

AUD/NZD - 4 Hourly 

Upside acceleration expected 

AUD/NZD saw a long-term low in April 2015 at 1.0020 and has since building a solid base from where to rally strongly higher. 

From an Elliott Wave point of view wave 1 of the 1.0020 low completed at 1.1429 and was followed by a deep and time comsuming wave 2 zig-zag correction that bottomed in September 2016 and since then wave 3 higher towards 1.2958 has been building. The start of this wave 3 has been building a series of waves 1 and 2 and it finally seems that a series of wave 3's is ready to unfold.

This means upside acceleration first to important resistance near 1.1420, but once this resistance is taken out, the way higher towards 1.2958 seems to be free of major hurdles. 

Short-term minor resistance is seen at 1.1020, but once this minor bump is overcome the next target to look for is important resistance near 1.1420. 

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Elliott wave Analysis - Time for a stock index correction

S&P 500 - Daily

S&P 500 - Weekly

DJI - Daily 

DJI - Weekly

Nikkei 225 - Weekly

Nifty 50 - Weekly 

Time for a stock index correction 

Most of the global stock indices has rallied nicely since early 2016. A rally that only has seen minor corrections especially lately and especially for the US stock indices. 

But it looks as a peak is near and renewed downside pressure should be seen shortly. The S&P 500 and the DJI is only expected to experience minor corrections, whereas the Nikkei 225 and the Indian Nifty 50 likely is running into more serve corrections in the months ahead. 

Even-though I only look for a temporary correction for the US-indices and do expect new rallies to new all-time highs later this year, we should be approaching an important peaks and a more sever corrections. 

Going back to the March 2009 lows, a five rally can be counted in both the S&P 500 and the DJI, so it's only a question of time before a long-term peak is in place. 

So this is not the time to be overly bullish stocks.

 

Elliott wave count of EUR/USD - Long-term low possibly in place at 1.0339

EUR/USD - Monthly

EUR/USD - Weekly

EUR/USD - Daily 

EUR/USD - 4 Hourly 

Long-term likely in place at 1.0339 

It has been a while since I last update this blog. I intend to update it more regular going forward. 

I was originally looking for the decline in EUR/USD from 1.6038 to move below par (see the previous long-term view here), but the long-term cycles didn't allow this to happen even though, we were pretty close, with the low seen at 1.0339 in early January 2017. 

With the low in early January at 1.0339 wave 5 did make a new low for the impulsive decline from 1.4940 and thereby fulfilled all requirements for the EWP. 

If wave (C) completed at 1.0339, then we can look for a new uptrend into January 2025 according to long-term cycle analysis. 

Looking at the 4-hourly and the daily time-frames the rally from 1.0339 does look impulsive confirming that a long-term low could be in place. 

I would like to see the rally from 1.0339 break above resistance at 1.2042 as that will break above the low of wave 1 and a overlap between wave 1 and 4 is not allowed under the EWP unless an ending diagonal is developing. The decline from 1.4940 does not fit the profile of an ending diagonal. 

Short-term, I'm looking for a correction in wave iv to at least the 23.6% corrective target of wave iii at 1.1474, but a deeper correction in wave iv closer to the 38.2% corrective target at 1.1286 can't be excluded, before a turn higher in wave v to above 1.1777 and ideally to just above 1.2042 to complete wave v and 1. Setting the stage for a correction in wave 2. 

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Time for acceleration and extension

AUD/NZD - Daily

AUD/NZD - 4 Hourly 

 Time for acceleration and extension 

 AUD/NZD is about to enter into wave iii/ of iii of 3/ of 3, which normally is the most powerful of the impulsive waves. This is the wave which accelerates the most and the wave where the largest extension normally is seen, so you don't want to miss this wave when it starts to unfold. 

The first good indication that the next impulsive rally is developing, will be seen upon a break above minor resistance seen at 1.0811, while a break above resistance at 1.0936 will accelerate prices higher 1.1463 and 1.1761, but the long-term target is seen much higher at 1.2350.

This is the wave to behold, so be ready! 

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Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Triangle consolidation in wave 4 finally looks complete

GBP/USD - Weekly

GBP/USD - Daily 

GBP/USD - 4 Hourly

GBP/USD - Triangle consolidation in wave 4 finally looks complete 

The triangle consolidation, which has dominated the picture since early October 2016 is finally coming to an end and renewed downside pressure in wave 5 should now be expected towards at least 1.0755 and likely even closer to the long term target seen at 0.9534 (see the long-term outlook here).

Short-term, a break below minor support seen at 1.2422 will be the first good indication that wave E of 4 has completed, while a break below support seen at 1.2333 will confirm that wave 4 has completed and wave 5 lower is unfolding.

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AUD/NZD - Should we expect a different outcome this time?

AUD/NZD - Should we expect a different outcome this time?

Please take a close to at the chart above. It shows the bottom-formation that played out in USD/JPY from 2010 to late 2012 (the black line), before USD/JPY took off for a more than 50% gain. 

The red line, shows the current price-action in AUD/NZD. Do you see the similarity? If you do, then should we expect a different outcome this time around?

I would not bet on a different outcome.

I also don't say they have to be identical, but I think it would be a rather safe bet to place on them be close to similar.

When AUD/NZD starts to pick-up speed as I expect it will, It will be almost impossible to enter without a large risk. Just look what happened in USD/JPY, when it started to pick-up speed. From late September 2012 to May 2013, there was almost no corrections. This is why you want to be in wave 3, when it takes off.

As Robert Prechter says it. "Wave 3 is a wonder to behold!"

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD - Directly lower or is a larger triangle unfolding?

AUD/USD - Directly lower or is a larger triangle unfolding?  

As long as important resistance at 0.7525 holds firm, we could still a direct break below minor support at 0.7425 indicating a direct decline to 0.6667 and longer term closer to the 0.6000 - 0.6100 area. 

If, however resistance at 0.7525 is taken out, then a larger triangle is expected. This count calls for more upside closer to 0.7625 before the triangle consolidation is complete and a impulsive decline lower towards 0.6667 and lower should be expected. 

No matter, which of the two scenarios that proves to be correct, the final outcome, will be a break lower. 

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Elliott Wave Analyses of Gold - Long-term correction unfolding from the 2011 high at 1,920.80

Gold Monthly Time-frame 

Long-term correction unfolding from the 2011 high at 1,920.80 

I was searching the Internet and came across this long-term Gold chart dating back to 1792. At that time gold was trading at 19.39 and we have since seen a long-term bull-trend that peaked at 1,920.80 in September 2011.

I have labeled the long-term chart from (1) to (5), which indicates that a top of Cycle degree completed in 2011 at 1,920.80 and the ongoing correction is of the same cycle degree. If this is correct, then we should be looking years ahead before the correction from 1,920.80 comes to its conclusion. Probably something in the neighborhood of 20 years.

Normally, the first corrective target we should be looking for i the bottom of wave four of one lessor degree, which in this case would be the low of wave (4) at 252 in August 1999. If, we however calculate the 61.8% corrective target of the rally from 19.36 to 1,920.80 that will provide us with a target near 745,00 and we have the bottom of wave 4 of (5) just below at 682.41, so I will be looking for this target-area, but will keep the long-term target at 252 in mind.

The decline from 1,920.80 to 1,046.23 only marked wave (A) of  the correction in cycle wave II and wave (B) currently is unfolding. My preferred count for wave (B) is that a triangle consolidation is unfolding. But let me be clear, that this ongoing correction in wave (B) still can take on a number of other shapes. Add to that (B)-wave corrections often take a number of unexpected twists and turns. But for now, let's keep what works and the triangle count has worked out pretty well till now.

Within this triangle, we saw wave A rally in three waves from 1,046.23 to 1,375.04 and wave B turned lower from 1,375.04 to 1,122.51 and wave C higher towards 1,323 is now unfolding.     

Please also see my long-term count from June 19 - 2016 here

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