Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD - Bottom expected in the 1.0486 - 1.0489 area

EUR/USD - Hourly 

EUR/USD - 4 Hourly 

EUR/USD - Weekly 

EUR/USD - Bottom expected in the 1.0486 - 1.0489 area

I have been looking for a bottom near 1.0488 for quite a while now and here we are at the doorstep to this target. Short-term, I think we might see a little more sideways price-action before the final spike lower to the 1.0486 - 1.0489 area to complete the five wave decline from 1.1300. A break above minor resistance at 1.0598 will be the first strong indication that the decline from 1.1300 is complete. 

Once this target-area has been reached a rally should be expected. Taking my previous post regarding Gann's 30 year cycle into consideration (you can see that post by clicking here). This could turn out to be much more than a corrective rally.

If a long term low is seen here, how could than be explained from an Elliott Wave Principle point of view? The only way that would be acceptable for for the EWP is that this low is, that a fifth wave failure has been seen in wave (v) of (C) that completes wave [B]. 

If a long-term low is seen in the 1.0486 - 1.0489 area and strong rally should be expected into late 2017 according to Gann. 

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold and Silver - Could trade sideways for a long term to come

Gold - Weekly

Silver - 2 Weeks 

Gold and Silver -  Could trade sideways for a long term to come 

Both gold and silver seems to be locked inside a long term support-line and a long term resistance-line. This tug of war between the bulls and the bears could go on for a lot longer, before the next legs lower towards 680 for gold and 7.00 for silver.

Gold has already corrected 38.2% of the decline from 1,290 to 1,046, but seen from a time perspective this correction has been very short, which makes the case for the possible triangle consolidation an even better.

Silver on the other side hasn't even managed to correct to the 23.6% corrective target for the decline from 49.80 to 13.64, but a triangle consolidation could be the answer for that. Instead of using up price to correct this decline, silver is using up time.

If these possible scenarios play out as described above, that will make it very hard for the bulls to continue to like gold and silver (to a lessor degree), which will make gold the perfect long term buying opportunity once we get close to 680 and for silver close to 7.00.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of DJI - Ending diagonal close to completion

DJI - Quarterly 

DJI - Weekly 

DJI - Ending diagonal close to completion

While the S&P 500 hasn't made a new all-time high yet, the DJI has set a new all-time high after the Trump election victory. This new all-time is very close to completing an ending diagonal that has been developing since the August 15,370 corrective low.

The high has been seen at 18,873, but after a minor consolidation one more high just above this high is expected to complete wave v and turn prices strongly lower. The first downside target to look for is the origin of the ending diagonal at 15,370, but as the entire rally from 2009 and possibly even back from 1932 is near completion, we should be looking for a serious correction unfolding.  

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD - A break above 0.7732 will call for 0.8165 before down again

AUD/USD - Weekly 

 AUD/USD - A break above 0.7732 will call for 0.8165 before down again.

A break firm above 0.7732 will make the above count the preferred top-count. This count for now remain the alternate count, but look only at the RSI-indicator, points to a break above 0.7732 for a continuation higher in wave C of [4] to 0.8165 before renewed downside pressure is seen in wave [5] for the final impulsive decline towards the long-term target near 0.6000.

What will ease the current upside pressure? First a break below minor support at 0.7647 and secondly a break below 0.7608 will again call for a new test of the important support at 0.7502. Only below this later support will confirm that wave [4] completed with the test of 0.7835 and wave [5] lower already is developing.

Go with the break either above 0.7732 or below 0.7502 as that will set the direction for the next big move of at least 400 pips.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Facebook - Break below 125.75 confirmed wave [3] peaked at 133.50

Facebook -Weekly 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Facebook - Break below 125.75 confirmed wave [3] peaked at 133.50

On June 15 I called for a possible top in FB at 120.77 (you can see that post by clicking here), Well it turned out that FB had a little more staying power and continued higher to peak at 133.50, but yesterday's break below 125.75 and more importantly below the ending diagonal support-line near 123.50 confirmed that wave [3] completed with the test of 133.50 and a return to the origin of the ending diagonal at 72.00 is developing. 

When an ending diagonal is complete the return to the origin, should be see within half the time it took the formation to build, which in this case means a return close to 72.00 no later than mid-June 2017. 

Once the correction in wave [4] is complete close to 72.00 it should provide an excellent buying opportunity. I will keep you posted when that time comes. 

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FTSE 100 Rule of 4 in play here?

FTSE 100 - Monthly

FTSE 100 - Weekly 

FTSE 100 Rule of 4 in play here?

The UK FTSE 100 has tested resistance at 6,951 four time without being able to clear this resistance, which indicates that the "Rule of 4" is in play here.

The "Rule of 4" states that, when a price breaks or fails to break a resistance or support levels on the fourth attempt, the outcome will be significant, and a big move should be expected. 

The FTSE 100 has failed to break above 6,951 on its fourth attempt, which could be a warning that a big decline is in the making. This is also supported by my Elliott Wave Count, which indicate that wave [C] to below 3,728 ultimately should be seen.

Short-term a break below minor support at 6,646 will be the first strong indication that the rule of 4 is in work here, while a break below support at 6,433 will confirm the failure and the expected big decline in wave [C] to below 3,728.

That said, I have to be fair and say. that a clear break above 6,951 will be equal important and call for much more upside in years to come.

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