Elliott wave analysis of EUR/CAD - Close to its first target at 1.4313

EUR/CAD close to its first target near 1.4313

We have tracked this decline since the top of red wave ii on April 28 at 1.5306 and this count has worked to absolute perfection. Now we are just about to hit the first target for red wave v at 1.4313. This a nice decline of 926 pips at todays price at 1.4380. Many investors will not even be able to make this profit in a year.

We can count five clear waves down from 1.5586 and it will just be a matter of time before a correction towards at least 1.4730 takes over.

Short term a break above 1.4435 will be the first warning that a bottom could be in place, while a break above 1.4501 is needed to confirm the bottom for wave 1 and that wave 2 towards at least 1.4730 is unfolding.

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Elliott wave analysis of Gold - Expect a break below the triangle support-line soon

Gold expect a break below the triangle support-line soon

I think it was about time I updated the daily chart for gold, as one can loose sight of the bigger count, when looking only at the 4-hourly chart.

As can be seen, we have seen a test of the triangle support-line near 1,273 and this line has held for now, but it should just be a matter of time before, we will see a break below this line and more importantly a break below 1,240.20 (the low of wave d) confirming that wave 5 lower is developing.

With wave e and 4 in place I have re-calculated the targets for wave 5. The first target comes in at 1,060.20, where wave 5 will be 38.2% of the distance travelled from the top of wave 1 at 1,920.84 to the bottom of wave 3 at 1,179.83 subtracted from the top of wave 4 at 1,345.28. The next target will be the 50% target of this distance, which comes in at 972.77, which also happens to be the measured triangle target. The fact that we can calculate the 972.77 target in two different ways, make this the most likely downside target.

Short term I would like to see resistance at 1,291.70 protect the upside, but if broken it indicates that we saw a short term low at 1,272.75 and a correction towards the 1,297 - 1,303 area is developing before the next strong decline below the triangle support-line near 1,273. Only a break above 1,322.69 will delay the expected downside pressure.

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EUR/NZD - Wave 2 ended at 1.5693

EUR/NZD - Wave 2 ended at 1.5693

We where looking for a final decline in wave 2 to 1.5706, which was the 38.2% corrective target of the impulsive rally from 1.5398 to 1.5898. The minor spike below 1.5706 is a perfect ending of this wave 2 correction and we should now be looking for wave 3 higher towards at least 1.6187 and more likely even higher towards 1.6496.

Short term a break above minor resistance at 1.5830 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.5866 will confirm that wave 3 is developing.

Only an unexpected break below 1.5693 will delay the expected upside for a move closer to the 50% corrective target at 1.5648, but the is not my preferred scenario.

EUR/JPY - Look for the final decline to 134.34

EUR/JPY - Look for the final decline to 134.34

As long as resistance at 138.01 holds firm, I will be looking for a final decline towards the equality target between wave A and C at 134.34.

Short term I'm looking for a break below support at 136.81 to confirm that the final decline lower to the equality target at 134.34 is developing. As we are locked in an expanded ending diagonal, this decline will likely not be a smooth easy to read decline...

Once the equality target is reached we should be ready for a new impulsive rally much higher.

USD/JPY - Wave c of the flat wave B-correction is likely over at 104.29

USD/JPY - Wave c of the flat wave B-correction is likely over at 104.29

I have been looking for a retest of the 104.13 high to end wave c of the flat wave B, with the test of 104.29 this is more than fulfilled and I will now be looking for a break below minor support at 103.81 and more importantly a break below support at 103.47 as confirmation, that wave B is indeed over and wave C lower to at least 99.30 is developing.

At 99.30 wave C will be equal in length to wave A, if the top is in place at 104.29. Short term the risk is a continuation higher to 105.44 in a larger flat correction. This is not my preferred count, but until we have proof, that wave B is over, this is the risk scenario.

GBP/USD - Wave 1 ended at 1.6534

GBP/USD - Wave 1 ended at 1.6534

Wave 1 extended slightly lower than the ideal 1.6579 target, but that does not change the overall need for a short term correction higher to at least 1.6844 (the top of wave iv of one lessor degree). A correction to 1.6844 will also be very close to the 50% corrective target of the decline from 1.7191 to 1.6534, which comes in at 1.6860.

Short term a break above minor resistance at 1.6597 indicates, that the correction in wave 2 towards 1.6844 is developing, while a break above resistance at 1.6679 confirms the correction.

FTSE 100 - Look for a continuation towards 6,816.52 before lower

FTSE 100 - Look for a continuation to 6,816.52
I'm still looking for wave B towards 6,816.52 before wave C lower takes over.

Wave A became an expanded leading diagonal and ideally we will see a break above the leading diagonal resistance-line to end the correction from 6,528.73 and set the stage for a impulsive decline in wave c to well be low 6,528.73.

Short term a break below support at 6,746.37 will confirm, that wave B is over and wave C is developing.

DAX - Wave iv has meet strong resistance at 9,470

DAX - Wave iv has meet strong resistance at 9,470

We have seen the expected rally to resistance at 9,470 just below the 61.8% corrective target at 9,501.77. Ideally we will see resistance at 9,470 protect the upside for a break below 9,291.93 confirming, that wave iv is over and wave v lower to 8,749.51.

Wave iv is alternating nicely from wave ii, which became an expanded flat correction, while wave iv is becoming a double zig-zag correction.

Crude Oil - Wave ii could be over at 94.45

Crude Oil - Wave ii could be over at 94.45

The break below the base-channel should provide more acceleration lower towards at least 86.48 and more likely even lower towards 73.50 longer term.

Short term the question is whether wave ii ended at 94.45 or we need a little more upside towards 94.83 and maybe even 95.32 before wave ii is over and wave iii lower can take over for a decline towards 86.48. Wave ii could easily be over at 94.45, but we will need a break below 92.94 and more importantly below 92.61 as confirmation.

Gold - Look for blue wave v lower to 1,262.96

Gold - Look for blue wave v to 1,262.96

The impulsive rally lower since the top of wave E of the major triangle at 1,345.28 is unfolding nicely. Short term I'm looking for a decline to 1,262.96 to finish wave i of (iii) lower. Once we have wave i in place we should look for a correction in wave ii towards at least 1,285.99 and more likely even higher to 1,293.10, but then we are in wave (iii) lower and we should always remember, that correction during third waves tend to be small or even sub-normal.

Longer term I'm still looking for much lower levels in wave 5 towards 1,086 and possibly even lower towards 1,002.

EUR/USD - Time for a correction in red wave 2

EUR/USD - Time for a correction in red wave 2

With a perfect touch down on the 61.8% target at 1.3182, we have most likely seen the bottom of red wave 1 and should be looking for a correction in red wave 2 towards at least 1.3380 (the 38.2% corrective target of the decline from 1.3701 to 1.3182). A correction to 1.3380 will also take us well back into wave iv of one lessor degree and close to the apex of the wave iv triangle, which is a very common corrective target. That said, we have to be aware that the expected correction easily can carry us higher towards the 50% corrective target at 1.3442, which also marks the top of wave iv of one lessor degree.

Short term a break above 1.3210 will be the first small warning that the bottom is in place, while a break above 1.3261 confirms the bottom for the correction to at least 1.3380.

I just want to add one important note. We are in wave (iii) lower and corrections during third waves tend to be small and even sub-normal.

AUD/JPY - Headed for 97.43 and maybe even 98.14

AUD/JPY - Headed for 97.43 and maybe even 98.14

The rally from late August at 86.41 has evolved into a triple zig-zag correction and we are currently in the last part of wave z. It's not possible to have more than a triple correction under the EWP, so once wave z is over we should be looking for wave C lower.

I'm looking for 97.43 as the ideal target for wave c of z, which is where wave c will be equal in length to wave a of z, but with the 61.8% corrective target of the decline from mid-April 2013 high at 105.43 to the late August 2013 low at 86.49 just above at 98.14 it might act as a magnet and prolong wave c of z slightly, but we should not expect much more upside for this B-wave correction.

EUR/AUD - Last decline towards 1.4074 developing

EUR/AUD - Last decline towards 1.4074 developing

The last decline towards the ideal target near 1.4074 is now developing. At 1.4074 we does not alone find the 38.2% corrective target of the rally from early August 2012 at 1.1605 to the late December 2013 top at 1.5597, we also find the low of wave iv of one lessor degree, which is a very common target for a correction.

Once at 1.4074 we should be looking for signs, that the B-wave correction is over and wave C higher is ready to take over, but for now we will stay focused on the downside and expect minor resistance at 1.4196 will be able to protect the upside for the next part of the decline towards 1.4074.

AUD/NZD - Break above the base-channel indicates acceleration higher

AUD/NZD - Break above the base-channel indicates acceleration higher

We have finally seen the long term expected break above the base-channel, which indicates acceleration higher towards 1.1754 as the ideal target for wave 3. At 1.1754 we will also find the 38.2% corrective target of the decline from 1.3793 in early March 2011 to the late January low at 1.0488.

Longer term I'm looking for wave C, which should be a impulsive rally (five waves) of this major flat correction, that has been unfolding since December 2006 (see the monthly chart below). This five wave rally should take back just above the March 2011 top at 1.3793.

Short term we will ideally see the base-channel resistance-line near 1.11 act as resistance, but only a break below support at 1.1043 will cause a delay in the expected uptrend.

EUR/CAD - Look for red wave v lower to at least 1.4313

EUR/CAD in red wave v lower to at least 1.4313

The decline from 1.5586 since mid-March has developed nicely and almost perfectly to my expectation. We saw an expanded flat in red wave iv, which ended at 1.4734 and was looking for strong evidence that red wave v lower was developing. The first strong indication was the break back into the falling channel and Fridays acceleration lower is another strong indication, that red wave v is well under way towards its first target at 1.4313. At 1.4313 red wave v will have travelled 38.2% of the distance travelled from the top of red wave I to the bottom of red wave iii subtracted the top of red wave iv.

Short term resistance at 1.4519 will protect the upside for the continuation lower to at least 1.4313 and possibly even lower.

GBP/AUD - Need to saty above 1.7733

GBP/AUD need to stay above 1.7733

If my working count is to stay valid, then we will have to stay above the bottom of wave 1 at 1.7733 for a break above minor resistance at 1.7830 and more importantly we need a break above 1.7948 to confirm the bottom of wave 2 to confirm that wave 3 higher towards 1.9238 and beyond is developing.

A break below 1.7733 will tell us, that all we have seen since April 10 at 1.7733 has been an X-wave and a deeper correction towards 1.7348 and possibly even 1.6781 should be expected.

Elliott wave analysis of the USD-Index - The target is at 82.21

USD-Index next target at 82.21

The rally from July 1 low at 79.75 has unfolded perfectly and is currently sitting just below the 82.21 target. At 82.21 red wave iii will be 361.8% the length of red wave i. But how do we know, that the 82.21 target likely will hold for a correction in red wave iv?

Well we don't for sure, that 82.21 will hold and turn the USD-Index lower in red wave iv, but beside the 361.8% extension target, we also saw a nice triangle formation as sub-wave iv of red wave iii and triangles tell us two things. First a triangle tells us, that once the formation is over, the underlying trend will be resumed (in this case higher, which clearly is what we have seen). Second a triangle formation tells us, that the next move in direction of the underlying trend will be the last of that sequence, before a correction takes over. So the rally to 82.21 should be followed by a correction.

Then what can be expected of this red wave iv correction? The first thing we will look for is a correction back to the bottom of wave four of one lessor (in this case blue wave iv, which comes in at 81.26). Then we apply the Fibonacci ratios to the rally from 79.75 to 82.21 and the 38.2% corrective target comes in at exactly 81.26, so now we already have to identical for red wave iv, when we have a cluster of target like this, we should always expect this target not only to work like a magnet, but also provide the necessary support to kick of red wave v higher.

For now we should keep our focus on the 82.21 target, but remember we are close to a short term top for red wave iii and a correction should soon follower in red wave iv.

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Elliott wave analysis of Crude Oil - Finally breaking lower

Crude Oil finally breaks lower

The downside break we have been looking for over the last couple of weeks finally materialized yesterday. Not alone did we see a break below minor support at 96.57 on the 8 hourly chart, but more importantly the break below 96.57 also meant we saw a clear break below the long term support-line back from January 2009 on the weekly chart, which will add considerably downside side pressure here.

Short term I will be looking for a test of 93.57 as the first possible target of wave (v) and I of 3, but if 93.57 is broken too, then we should be looking for an extension in wave (v) lower to 90.75. It's not uncommon for commodities, that the fifth wave extends.

However, longer term we should see an even strong decline towards in wave 3 towards at least 86.80 and possibly even deeper towards 74.02, where wave 3 will be 161.8% of wave 1 and at the same time meet the 50% corrective target of the rally from 33.22 to 114.81.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY - Channel support broken, calling for a decline to at least 163.28

GBP/JPY moving lower to 169.45

We have finally seen the break below the channel support-line at 171.35, which confirms that wave C lower to at least 163.28 longer term.

We saw the top of the impulsive rally from mid-January 2012 at 117.26 at 174.85 in early January 2014 and has since seen an expanded flat correction unfolding. Wave B of this correction, did break slightly above the origin of wave A and therefore this correction is an expanded flat. Wave C should at least see a decline to 163.28 where wave C will be equal in length to wave A and wave C should unfold in an impulsive manner (five wave decline).

Short term we should see a break below 170.52 call for a decline to 169.45, but that should just be a minor stop on the way lower towards 163.28.

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Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY - The b-wave triangle is almost over

USD/JPY - Wave b should be over soon

Since the 75.56 low ultimo October 2011 we have seen a nice five wave rally to 105.44 in mid-January 2014. We are currently correcting this five wave rally in a simple zig-zag correction. Wave a of this correction became an expanded leading diagonal and we are currently working on wave b. From the chart above it's clear, that wave b has become a b-wave triangle.
We are in the final staged of this b-wave triangle and should soon see a thrust out of the triangle towards the downside for a decline to 93.33, where wave c will be equal in length to wave a. At the same time we will find the 23.6% corrective target of the rally from 75.56 to 105.44 at 93.26.
With a cluster of targets in the 93.26 - 93.33 we should expect this area to protect the downside for the next impulsive rally higher.

However, for now we should focus on the final part of the final part of the triangle ending close to 102.94 for a strong decline in wave c towards 93.33.

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Elliott eave analysis of EUR/NZD - Impulsive five wave rally from 1.5398

EUR/NZD target at 1.5920

We have a nice five wave rally of the 1.5398 low. The ideal target for wave v of 1 is at 1.5920, we could of course see an extension higher towards 1.5965, but no matter what a minor top should be close by.

The five wave rally tells us, that we should expect only a correction, once wave v finally is in place. After the correction a new impulsive rally should be seen.

As we can count five nice wave up from 1.5398 and have a minor triangle as wave iv, we know that we are in the final move higher of this impulsive rally, before a correction lower to 1.5555 takes over.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave iii ended at 135.73

EUR/JPY wave iii ended at 135.73

I was looking for a wave iii target at 135.48, but break above 136.46 told us, that wave iii ended a little early at 135.73. We should now look for wave iv towards red wave iv of one lessor degree at 138.00. It's very common for fourth waves to terminate close to a fourth wave of one lessor degree, which in this case would be red wave iv at 138.00, from where we should see the final decline to 134.34 to end wave C.

At 134.34 wave C will be equal in length to wave A from 145.69 to 136.23.

Short term we should allow for a correction to 136.20 before the final rally to 138.00 to end wave iv.

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Elliott wave analysis of USD/INR - The 161.8% extension target at 61.78 almost tested

USD/INR is almost testing the 161.8% extension target at 61.78

Since my last update on July 31, we have seen a perfect impulsive rally and is sitting just below the 161.8% extension target at 61.78 (the high till now has been 61.73). Even if we does see a set-back from 61.78, it should only prove short-lived and it should just be a matter of time before the next impulsive rally breaks right through resistance at 61.78 for a continuation higher to 62.93 and possibly even higher.

Short term support will be found at 61.19

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Elliott Wave Analysis of UNG (Natural Gas ETF) - Bottom in place soon

UNG (Natural Gas ETF) close to a bottom

Sorry for not having update the last couple of days, but I have been extremely busy keep the Elliott Wave Surfer Service up to date. We have seen a lot of action in the Market lately.

Since the February high at 27.89 we have seen a very complex double zig-zag correction, which should be very close to a bottom. Ideally we will see this wave IV end in the 20.12 - 20.42 area for a break above resistance at 21.95 being the first strong indication, that the bottom is in place for the next major rally higher to above 27.89 in wave V.

At this point only a break below support at 19.98 will be of concern as that will leave us with an overlap between wave I and IV, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle.

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