EUR/USD - We are at wave iii target at 1.3480, but more downside is expected after a minor correction.

EUR/USD

Wave iii is pretty close to it's target at 1.3480 after the expected shallow wave (iv) correction. this correction couldn't even make it to the normal minimum target at 1.3588 (the high came in at 1.3573). Once wave iii is in place we should look for an other shallow correction in wave iv to just below 1.3573 before the final decline towards 1.3408 wave wave i of 3.

Apple - Look for a rally towards at least 594.25.

Apple

The decline from 574.30 has decline below important support at 513.64, which Means the rally from the 387.21 most likely isn't impulsive but likely a dobble zig-zag correction. I expect the wave b of y is close to being over and wave c of y higher ready to begin. The ideal target for wave c of y is at 629.24, but strong resistance is located at 594.25 and might be able to hold back the c-wave rally.

USD/ZAR - The upside still dominates, but a top is getting closer.

USD/ZAR

Paulina asked me to update my view on ZAR

The South African Rand (ZAR) has been much weaker than expected and continues to weaken. As we have already broken above the 38.2% target of the distance travelled from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 that Means the next target for wave 5 is at the 50% target at 11.6058, but a more normal target would be the 61.8% target at 12.0764.

To confirm that a top is in place a break below support at 10.5825 is needed, but already a break below support at 10.7750 will indicate that wave v is in place, but for now the upside still dominates, but we are closing on a top.

Crude Oil - New bullish count warranted as we have broken above 97.84.

Crude Oil

With the break above resistance at 97.84 I have had to change my count. This new count shows that we found an important bottom already at 91.25 and a new impulsive rally now is developing. As the first target I'm looking for a move slightly above 100.66 as wave 1. Once wave 1 is in place look for wave 2 towards 95.25.

Short term I will be looking for wave iv towards 95.85 and maybe even 95.01 if wave extends before the final rally higher towards 100.66.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for January 31 - 2014

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 140.27

R2: 139.94

R1: 139.37

Current Spot: 138.96

S1: 138.65

S2: 138.18

S2: 137.39

Technical Summary:

I'm looking for the ongoing wave blue wave iii to start accelerating towards the downside soon. The ideal target for blue wave iii is at 136.15. Short term expect minor resistance at 139.37 to protect the upside for the next decline, but if the minor resistance is clearly broken we should expect a minor extension towards 139.94 before the next move lower towards 136.15.

A break below the support line of the base channel will confirm that the expected acceleration lower is developing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6792

R2: 1.6763

R1: 1.6677

Current Spot: 1.6625

S1: 1.6609

S2: 1.6592

S3: 1.6561

Technical Summary:

The expected correction from 1.6725 became slightly deeper than anticipated, but I'm now looking for support at 1.6592 to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6677, which confirms the rally in red wave v towards 1.6792. Once red wave v and black wave iii is in place look for a shallow wave iv correction to 1.6579 before higher again in wave v.

 

USD/JPY - Look for an acceleration lower upon a break below 102.09

USD/JPY

We are most likely in green wave (iii) lower, but we need a break below minor support at 102.09 to confirm that is the case, but a break below 102.09 will call for an acceleration lower towards 100.24 as the likely target for green wave (iii). However as long as support at 102.09 holds firm a more complex correction can not be excluded yet, but this scenario seems less likely.

EUR/USD - After a shallow correction look for more downside towards 1.3480.

EUR/USD

Wave (iii) is likely in place at 1.3533 and we should expect a shallow wave (iv) towards 1.3587 before wave (v) lower towards 1.3480, which also marks the bottom of wave iii.
Longer term I'm looking for a decline towards at least 1.3345 and most likely even lower as wave 3 Begins to accelerate.

GBP/USD - Look for a decline towards 1.6425 in blue wave (v).

GBP/USD

Blue wave (iv) extended to the 61.8% corrective target of blue wave (iii) at 1.6518 and blue wave (v) is currently developing for a decline towards 1.6425 Once blue wave (v) is over it also marks the bottom of red wave (iii), which should be followed by a shallow red wave (iv), but for now we should concentrate on blue wave (v) towards 1.6425.

Crude Oil - Correction likely over. Look for increased downside pressure.

Crude Oil

Wave iv of 5 has extended slightly, but is likely over with the test of 97.98 and I will be looking for a break below important support at 96.35 and more importantly below support at 95.22 confirming the last decline towards the ideal 88.53 target.

However, we still have to be aware, that a clear break above resistance at 98.00 will indicate that an important bottom already is in place and call for a rally higher towards 100.76

GBP/USD - Long term count.

GBP/USD - Long Term Count

Please see my long term Cable Count from October 5 2013 here

Zink asked me about, where I expect wave e to end.

E wave of triangles are almost always tricky waves, as they can be sub-normal, but they can also go the maximum distance to the triangle support line.

However, in this case I will be looking for 1.5854 as the first target, but it can become deeper than that. Only time will tell.

GBP/USD - Expect more downside towards 1.6399 soon.

GBP/USD

Blue wave (iii) came in at 1.6445 just 10 pips below my ideal target. Now I'm looking for Blue wave (iv) in the 1.6490 - 1.6500 area followed by blue wave (v) lower towards 1.6399 to end blue wave iii.

AUD/NZD - Important bottom in place. Look for a major rally towards 1.1577.

AUD/NZD

The break above important resistance at 1.0704 has confirmed, that we already have seen a long term bottom at 1.0488. I will now be looking for a major rally towards the top of wave 4 at 1.1577 as the first major target. As can be seen on the long term chart below the 38.2% corrective target, which comes in at 1.1553 near to the top of wave 4.

Short term we should see support at 1.0660 and again at 1.0558.

GBP/JPY in a small but complex wave 4 correction.

GBP/JPY

We are currently in wave 4, which likely will be a complex flat correction, as wave 2 was a major simple zig-zag decline wave 4 should be small but complex. Therefore I will look for a correction the 23.6% corrective target at 161.50 and maybe even lower towards the 38.2% corrective target at 153.33, but not lower than that.

GBP/USD - It finally looks as we are getting the expected downside acceleration.

GBP/USD

It finally seems as we are seeing the expected acceleration towards the downside, that I have been looking for the last couple of days.
Short term I'm looking for blue wave (iii) lower towards 1.6455. We are currently entering the strongest part of the decline I have been looking for, therefore we should expect correction to be small and even sub-normal.
Slightly longer term I expect red wave iii to reach at least 1.6303, but it could easily be lower than that. We will just have to see how the sub-waves unfolds.

DJI - Important top in place. Expect much more downside action to come

Dow Jones Industrial Index

Since the 16,588.25 high we have seen a impulsive looking decline. It does look as it's over yet. Short term I will be looking for a minor rally higher to just below resistance at 15,945 and then another decline to below the important support at 15,703 to end the first impulsive decline from 16,588.25.
As the decline becomes a impulsive five wave decline indicates that we should expect more downside pressure once the correction is over.

I think we have wave D of the major expanding triangle in place and will be looking for a sharp and powerful decline in wave E.

Crude Oil - At an important decision point.

Crude Oil

We are close to a important decision point. I will be looking for a decline through support at 96.35 and more importantly a break below support at 95.22 confirming a continuation lower in wave iii towards at least 92.78 and possibly even lower. The ideal target for wave 5 is at 88.53.

However, should we see a clear break above resistance at 97.80 we should expect a move higher towards 100.76, but more importantly it will indicate that an important bottom already is in place.

EUR/USD - Look for acceleration lower soon.

EUR/USD

The overlapping structure has continued, this behavior is not consistent with a series of wave one's and two's, therefore I have changed my short term count slightly, showing a leading diagonal as wave i (my previous alternate count).
I'm still looking for acceleration towards the downside for a move lower closer to 1.3500 and maybe even lower in wave iii.

Short term expect minor resistance at 1.3644 for a clear break below 1.3603.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for January 30 - 2014

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 140.40

R2: 140.15

R1: 139.94

Current Spot: 139.72

S1: 139.39

S2: 139.04

S3: 138.43

Technical Summary:

As expected the extended blue wave ii correction had ended and blue wave iii lower towards 136.15 is developing. Blue wave ii ended at 141.26 and following decline is clearly impulsive in its structure. As we have entered the most powerful part of this decline, we should expect corrections to be small or even sub-normal, therefore expect minor resistance at 139.94 will protect the upside for the next decline towards 137.69 on the way lower towards 136.15.

Longer term I'm looking for a major correction to the five way rally from 94.10 to 145.69 (please see the chart below). The ideal target for this correction will be at 126.03, which is right in the middle of wave four of one lessor degree.  

 EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6792

R2: 1.6763

R1: 1.6722

Current Spot: 1.6705

S1: 1.6660

S2: 1.6622

S3: 1.6592

Technical Summary:

After an unexpected minor detour towards 1.6425 before we finally saw the expected red wave v rally higher towards 1.6792. Short term expect a minor correction towards 1.6660 before the final rally higher towards 1.6792 to end red wave v and black wave iii.

Longer term I'm looking for a new impulsive rally to above 1.6996 towards 1.7274 and higher. However the alternative count shows the possibility of a triangle building. If this is the case we should see wave D of the triangle end near 1.6900 and the followed by the final E wave towards 1.6470 (See the chart below).

EUR/JPY - Long term Elliott Wave Count.

EUR/JPY - Long Term Count

I wanted to show you, what my longer term expectations are. As can be seen we have a five rally in place from the 94.10 low to the 145.69 high. Every complete five wave rally has its surprises and in this case it was wave 4 as it turned out to be a rare skewed triangle. It took me some time to figure out what was going on, but finally got it and  at the same time had the possible target area for wave 5 as the end of wave 5 ideally should end within the 78.6% - 100 % of the length of wave 4. Wave 5 ended slightly above the 78.6% target of wave 4 at 145.36.

So what can we expect next?

I'm looking for a correction towards the 38.2% corrective target at 126.03, which also happen to be in the middle of wave 4 of one lessor degree. It's still to tell which corrective pattern this corrective decline will be, but I'm look for a simple zig-zag until I perhaps is proven wrong. So for now stay focused towards the downside.

AUD/NZD - One more low needed to end the long term decline.

AUD/NZD

I'm looking for the last decline towards 1.04 and maybe even lower towards 1.0277 before a firm bottom is in place for a major correction towards at least 1.1581.
The first indication of a bottom being in place is a break above resistance at 1.0709.

EUR/TRY - Look for a decline towards 2.76 - 2.82 area as the first minor target.

EUR/TRY

As can be seen at the chart above, this cross has been in a major uptrend since at least early 2006 (I don't have data longer back than that). I think we have seen a major triple zig-zag rally, which has just topped at 3.2729. I will now be looking for a major corrective decline towards at least 2.3700.

Looking at the C wave of Z wave 5 ended slightly below the 100% of the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 added to the bottom of wave 4. This indicates, that the first target likely will be found in the 2.76 - 2.82 area, but longer term we should expect a decline towards at least 2,3700.

USD/TRY - Top in place for a major correction.

USD/TRY

The Turkish Lira has been weakening since early 2008, where it traded at 1.1436. As we have been Trading within a major rising channel I have counted this rally as an simple A-B-C zig-zag correction. Wave C did a Classic overshooting of the channel resistance line, but the quick return into the channel indicates, that a top is in place for a decline towards at least 1.9138, where we find the 38.2% corrective target.

Looking at the bigger picture we will find a nice relationship between wave A and C as wave C is a little higher than 1.382 times wave A.

As the Turkish central bank has doubles its interest rates overnight being short USD and long TRY will add a nice forward Premium to the spot price.

USD/JPY - Minor wave ii correction seems to over look for downside acceleration soon.

USD/JPY

Here too the correction has extended into a triple zig-zag correction, this correction does looks to be done and I will be looking for a break below 102.95 as the first indication, that green wave ii is over and more importantly a break below 102.60 that confirm green wave iii lower towards at least 100.35 and possible even lower is developing.

At no point can a break above 103.58 be allowed as that would force a short term recount.

EUR/USD - Is making slow progress lower, but the expected acceleartion lower is lacking.

EUR/USD

I'm still looking for an acceleration lower, but the overlapping structure we have seen over the last couple of sessions could indicate, that we "only" have seen a leading diagonal as wave i and wave ii is about to develop. If a leading diagonal has been developing, then we should be looking for a correction towards 1.3697 before the next powerful decline lower towards 1.3500 and possibly even lower.

At no point can a break above 1.3739 be allowed as that will indicate a prolonged correction from the 1.3507 low.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for Janaury 29 - 2014

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.42

R2: 141.80

R1: 141.36

Current Spot: 141.16

S1: 140.77

S2: 140.29

S3: 139.79

Technical Summary:

The correction from 139.15 has extended as it has turned into a triple zig-zag correction, but we should be very close to the end of the correction. Expect the correction (blue wave ii) to end near 141.36. To indicate that the correction is over, we need a break below minor support at 140.77 and more importantly a break below 140.29 that confirms that blue wave ii is over and blue wave iii lower is developing for a decline towards at least 136.15.

Longer term I'm looking for a much deeper correction, but we will have to remember, that correction can be rather unpredictable as they evolve.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6632

R2: 1.6568

R1: 1.6524

Current Spot: 1.6504

S1: 1.6452

S2: 1.6434

S3: 1.6385

Technical Summary:

It finally looks as red wave iv has ended slightly below my ideal target at 1.6463 (the low has been at 1.6452). Short term look for a break above minor resistance at 1.6523 and more importantly a break above 1.6567 which confirms that red wave iv is over and red wave v is developing for a move higher towards 1.6792. 

Short term look for support at 1.6493, which ideally will hold for the break above 1.6523, but we could see a move slightly lower towards 1.6476 before the break above 1.6523. At no point can a break below 1.6452 be accepted as that will prolong the correction from 1.6690.

EUR/CHF - Running Triangle is almost done.

EUR/CHF

The break back below 1.2285 is disappointing and has forced me to change my longer term count.
The new Count shows that a running triangle is the most likely formation developing. As can be seen the triangle is almost finished.
Looking at the final e wave I think we will see a minor rally towards 1.2303 followed by a decline to 1.2207 to finish the this final wave e and B and should be followed by a new impulsive rally higher towards at least 1.2755 and possibly even higher.

Crude Oil - Look for an impulsive decline soon.

Crude Oil

As long as important resistance at 98.20 holds firm, I will be looking for the last impulsive decline lower towards the ideal wave 5 target at 88.53.
Short term I would like to see minor resistance at 96.43 protect the upside for a break below support at 95.73 and more importantly below support at 95.43 as a break below the later will confirm that wave (iii) lower towards at least 93.20 is developing.
Only a break above resistance at 97.18 invalidates the above bearish count.

GBP/USD - Expect downside pressure to mount as red wave iii lower takes over.

GBP/USD

I'm still looking for an impulsive decline as wave C of the expanded flat correction we have seen since the D wave high at 1.6604.
Short term we need a break below 1.6565 to indicate, that red wave iii lower towards at least 1.6307 is developing.
Only a break above resistance at 1.6668 invalidates the bearish count.

USD/JPY - The correction from 101.71 has extended, but should be over soon.

USD/JPY

The correction from 101.71 has extended and become more complex, than first expected. However as long as resistance at 103.58 protects the upside I will be looking for a break below minor support at 102.46 that indicates green wave iii is developing, while a break below short term important support at 102.16 confirms green wave iii for a decline towards at least 99.88 and likely lower.

EUR/USD - Look for a impulsive decline to 1.3526 soon.

EUR/USD

I'm looking for a powerful decline to take place soon as wave (iii) of iii is about to develop. A break below minor support at 1.3653 should be able to do the trick and send us impulsive lower in wave iii towards at least 1.3526 and possibly even lower.
Short term resistance at 1.3688 should protect the upside to keep this count valid.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for January 28 - 2014

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.43

R2: 141.03

R1: 140.70

Current Spot: 140.44

S1: 140.12

S2: 139.68

S3: 139.15

Technical Summary:

As expected the resistance in the 140.50 - 140.78 area (the high has been 140.70) protected the upside, but we still need a break below support at 139.68 to confirm that a top is in place and the next strong impulsive wave lower is developing. As long as support at 140.13 stays unbroken we could see a move slightly higher towards 140.78 before lower.

Short term a break below 140.13 will be the first indication that the next powerful decline is developing, while a break below 139.68 confirms the top for a decline towards 135.39.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6643

R2: 1.6599

R1: 1.6558

Current Spot: 1.6491

S1: 1.6492

S2: 1.6463

S3: 1.6410

Technical Summary:

We have seen the expected decline towards support at 1.6492 to finish the flat correction, which has developed the last couple of days. Once this flat correction is finished, we should expect a new rally higher towards 1.6792 in red wave v. 

Short term we could see a slightly deeper correction towards 1.6463 as long as resistance at 1.6558 protects the upside, but from 1.6463 or upon a break above 1.6558 we should see a new rally higher towards the ideal red wave v target at 1.6792.

USD/CHF - Look for a break above 0.8991 to comfirm the next rally higher.

USD/CHF

The correction from 0.9127 turned into an expanded flat correction. We have likely just seen the low of wave c ii at 0.8900 (close to the 70.7% corrective target of wave i) and we should be looking for a break above resistance at 0.8991 as the first indication, that wave iii higher towards 0.9436 is developing. However, to confirm that wave ii is over a break above 0.9081 is needed.

Important support is at 0.8798 the start of wave i.

AUD/NZD - Look for the last decline closer to 102.93 before higher.

AUD/USD

When we broke clearly below support at 1.0841 the next target for the ongoing decline became the 2 times extension of wave A at 1.0293. Short term resistance at 1.0672 needs to protect the upside for a break below support at 1.0533, which will confirm that the final decline closer to 1.0293 is developing. Once at the ideal target at 1.0293 or upon a break above 1.0672 we should see a rally higher towards at least 1.1659.

EUR/AUD - A expanding flat correction is developing.

EUR/AUD

Wave B has extended furtherb than first expected and has turned into an expanded flat correction. Wave B could be in place already, but if this scenario is correct, then resistance at 1.5772 will have to protect the upside for a break below support at 1.5660. A break below 1.5660 will be the first indication that wave B is over, but a break below 1.5507 is needed to confirm that wave B is over and wave C is developing for a decline towards at least 1.4844, but I still think the ideal target for this correction is near 1.4051.

However, if resistance at 1.5772 is broken, then wave B needs one more new high closer to 1.5900 and maybe even closer to 1.6045 before wave C will be ready to take over.

USD/JPY - Correction likely over. Look for a new impulsive decline soon.

USD/JPY

With a small correction towards 102.77 (slightly above the corrective target at 102.72) and I will now be looking for a break below minor support at 102.06 confirmning the next decline lower towards 100.66 and maybe even lower towards 99.68 as this wave iii lower seems to extend more than first expected.

EUR/USD - Look for acceleration to the downside soon.

EUR/USD

Wave 2 ended at 1.3740 and it should be a matter of time before we will see a break below important support at 1.3663, which confirms a continuation lower towards at least 1.385 and possibly even lower to just below 1.3507 in wave i of 3. The ideal target for wave 3 is at 1.3096, but wave 3 could extend even further towards

Short term look for resistance in the 1.3701 - 1.3705 area to protect the upside for the break below 1.3663.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for January 27 - 2014

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.17

R2: 140.78

R1: 140.50

Current Spot: 140.45

S1: 140.12

S2: 139.68

S3: 139.15

Technical Summary:

The expected decline is developing nicely. Short term I expect resistance in the 140.50 - 140.78 area will protect the upside for a break below minor support at 140.40 and more importantly a break below 139.68, which confirms acceleration lower towards 135.39 in blue wave iii. A break below the base channel support line currently at 138.85 confirms the acceleration lower.

If blue wave ii extends look for resistance at 141.17 and again at 141.46, but I doubt we will see blue wave ii that high, even though second waves are allowed to correct all of the first wave.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6752

R2: 1.6690

R1: 1.6629

Current Spot: 1.6600

S1: 1.6564

S2: 1.6516

S1: 1.6492

Technical Summary:

We have seen the expected correction into the correction area between 1.6462 - 1.6493 with a low at 1.6492. It looks as the ongoing red wave iv correction is a flat correction and therefore we should see one more decline towards 1.6492 maybe slightly below before the next rally higher to 1.6792 in red wave v and black wave v.

Short term we should see minor resistance at 1.6629 protect the upside for a break below 1.6564 towards 1.6492 before higher again.

What does a exponential rise look like?

Biotechnology Index - Nasdaq

Amazon.com

Google.com

 

 What does a exponential rise look like?

Just take a look at the three charts above. Google the last chart is not that extreme, but still. I have added my preferred count for Google below. This count also indicates that a top could be nearby and a massive decline just ahead.
Amazon looks as it's about to break lower. All that's needed is a break below 379.50.
The Biotechnology Index is clearly the most extreme, but we need more evidence to confirm if wave 5 is in place. However, it's worth to keep an eye on the slow stochastic indicator, as it just may prove to give us a good clue to, when the top is in place.