Natural Gas a little lower before up...

Natural Gas - The short term count tricked me a bit as I thought that wave 3 up from 1.90 had already begun, but that is no longer a valid count. Instead the wave v thrust out of the triangle became an extended rally as wave v was equal in length to the rally of wave i through to wave iii.
We should now see a correction towards 2.22, where 61.8% of wave 1 will be retraced and from there we should see a new rally in wave 3 towards at least 3.08 but more likely we will see a rally to 3.68.

A break above 2.76 will also trigger an Inverse S/H/S bottom adding more confirmation, that an important bottom was in place at the 1.90 low.

Dow Jones Industrial headed for 9,665?

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Please see my long term view here first:  http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/03/dow-jones-industrial-index-interesting.html
I have been a little puzzled in regards to how the price-action since the April 2011 low at 10,404 could fit into my long term view calling for a top in 2013 as wave D of an Expanding Triangle.
If we count the rally from the March 2009 low at 6,470 to the May 2011 high at 12,840 as a five wave rally, this would be labeled as wave A, the following decline from 12,840 down to 10,404 in October 2011 was clearly in three waves as is the rally from 10,404 to the 13,338 high on May 1'ste. 2012. If this count is correct the most likely outcome is that an Expanding Flat correction has been unfolding since May 2011. That also means that we are currently tracing out the C-leg down of the expanded flat correction. The ideal target-area for wave C will be in the 9,665 - 9,913 area.

The fine thing about this count is, that the break below 10.404 will have most call for a new long term decline towards the 2009 low and therefore it will most likely hurt the most. As will the following rally in wave C to the new all time high in red wave D.

If we concentrate on the current decline from 12,840 it follows all the characteristics of a C wave. It's fast and the corrections is shallow and when done it will be a five wave decline, which will have most look for a three wave correction from the bottom of wave C. and thereby most will be caught of guard when it rallies beyond the 12,840 high.

There is of cause no guarantee for this scenario, but I do like all the possibilities of catching most of guards. 

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY

 EUR/USD - We are now in the final part of blue wave 3 down towards the ideal target-area between 1.2235 - 1.2285. Even though I expect some kind of correction from here, be careful as we are in the middle of the most powerful part of the decline. Corrections tend to be rather shallow at this point and oversold conditions ignored as the weak hands are forced out of the market.

 USD/JPY - The Triangle concept has work to almost perfection and we have entered the ideal target-zone between 78.33 - 78.86 (The low has been 78.69, which is just 2 small pips above the calculated target for wave v down from 79.58 the end of the B-wave triangle).
Also remember that triangles always for say the last move in direction of the ongoing trend, which is down from 84.17.
I do think we are in a low risk USD-buying area, but you could wait for confirmation via a break above 78.94 and more importantly above 79.13, which will be the first indication that wave 2 has bottomed.

 EUR/JPY - Is very close to the invalidation point at 97.01 and therefore is in a low-risk buying area.
Wave 2 is allowed to retrace all of wave 1 but not more, which means a stop can be placed just a few pips below 97.01. However we need a break above 98.91 to get the first indication that the correction from 111.43 is over, while a break above 99.94 confirms the bottom.
A break below the invalidation-point at 97.01 will force me back to the drawing board, but the count shown above will stand until proven wrong.

CHF/JPY - The picture is pretty much the same as for EUR/JPY. We are in the very last part of the wave 2 correction down from 92.40. At no point can a break below the starting-point of wave 1 at 79.94 be allowed, which is why we currently is in a low risk CHF-buying area for a break above 82.37 as the first indication, that wave 2 has bottomed, while a break above 83.31 confirms the bottom.
Again wave 2 is allowed to correct all of wave 1, but not go a single pip below so any break below 79.94 will force me back to the drawing board, but the count shown above will stand to proven wrong.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY and Facebook.com

 EUR/USD - I still look for a continuation down towards the ideal 1.2242 - 1.2285 target-area before blue wave 3 is over. However it's important to remember that we are only in the middle of wave 3 down and corrections in third waves tend to be shallow.

 USD/JPY - We have now broken below the starting-point of wave D of the B-wave triangle and should soon see more downside into the target-area between 78.33 - 78.84 with the ideal target being 78.33, but be careful as we just need one pip below 78.96 to fulfil all requirements for the wave 2 correction that began way back at 84.17.
This last decline should offer a nice buying opportunity.

Facebook.com - Please see my last post regarding Facebook here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/05/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurusd-usdjpy_23.html
Was even weaker than first expected a wave C down is already well under way and should at least see a decline close to 24.50.

Elliott wave analysis on USD/JPY - one more decline before up...

USD/JPY - The price-action since the 78.96 low has not been consistent with a new impulsive rally, instead it looks more like a b-wave triangle calling for one last decline closer to 78.33 before the complex correction since the 84.17 high is finally over.
Be ready to enter new long USD-positions upon this final thrust to the downside.

Elliott wave analysis on the CRB-Index; Soybeans and Soybean Oil

 CRB Index - Has clearly broken below important support at 294, which has opened up the downside. I will be looking for a´n acceleration down in wave 3 towards 197.25. As wave 1 was an expanding leading diagonal we should expect wave 3 to be extended.

 Soybeans - The decline from 1509 does look very impulsive in character and we should soon see an acceleration towards 1242 where red wave iii will be 1.618 time the length of red wave i.

Soybean Oil - After slightly more upside we should see the next leg down in red wave v to near 48, but that will most likely only end black wave i of 3 down. Long term we should see Soybean Oil drop below 27.90.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on The USD Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY

 USD Index - Has broken above important long term resistance and a close above here on a weekly basis will call for an acceleration higher towards the 85.00 area with a long term target near 91.61.
The broken resistance at 81.30 should now act as support (resistance turns to support when broken).

 EUR/USD - The price-action yesterday was not 100% convincing for a direct continuation towards 1.2287. However looking at the bigger picture we should expect correction to the main down-trend to be small and follower by impulsive down moves.

 EUR/JPY - See my post from May 23 here:  http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/05/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurusd-usdjpy_23.html)
EUR/JPY fell nicely into the target-area and odds favor that an important bottom was seen at 99.12, what's needed to confirm the bottom is a break above 100.83 and of cause more importantly 102.12, that will confirm the bottom and call for a new impulsive rally, that ultimately will break above the 111.43 high.

CHF/JPY - Is pretty much in the same position as EUR/JPY. An important bottom is most likely found at 82.66 (also nicely within the ideal target-area between 82.52 - 82.75.
A break above 83.94 will be first indication that a bottom is in place, while a break above 85.02 confirms the bottom for a new impulsive rally above 92.40 longer term.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and AUD/USD

 EUR/USD - Odds favor that blue wave 4 only became very shallow and that blue wave 5 towards 1.2249 have already begun. If this is the case then risky trades will soon have to be close in a major fashion and cause commodities and stocks down.

 USD/JPY - Blue wave 2 most likely ended at 79.20 yesterday and blue wave 3 towards 81.11 have begun. If this is correct it also means that important resistance at 80.55 will be broken along the way and confirm that the wave 2 correction from 84.17 did indeed end at 78.96

 GBP/USD - Is in the final wave down towards 1.5610, which will most likely end wave 1 down from 1.6301, but longer term we are looking at a much deeper decline to below 1.3498.

AUD/USD - Most likely ended wave iii at 0.9686 and we should see wave iv towards 0.9846 and maybe slightly higher, but be aware that we are entering a stage where correction most likely will be shallow and short lived.
Longer term I'm looking for a decline to at least the 0.7946 - 0.8086 area.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; EUR/JPY; CHF/JPY; Crude Oil and Facebook

 EUR/USD - Green wave iv is now well under way and should ideally make it to 1.2588, but be careful as we are in the absolutely last part of the decline from 1.3178, but also remember in the bigger picture green wave v only ends blue wave iii down. We are most likely looking at a period of small ups and downs, which at some point will look like and ending diagonal, but isn't and should finally result in a powerful resumption of the decline.

 USD/JPY - Minor blue wave 1 ended at 80.14 and we are currently in blue wave 2. Wave two's in this cross tend to be very deep and take back close to 76.4% of wave one's, but at no point can a break below 78.96 be accepted as that would tell us, that the correction from 84.17 isn't over yet.
Buying USD close to the 76.4% retracement at 79.24 should pose a low risk buying opportunity with a stop at 78.95.
In the slightly bigger picture we still need a break above 80.55 to confirm that an important bottom was found at 78.96 and that a new impulsive rally have begun.

 EUR/JPY - A deep wave 2 or B correction is ongoing from the 111.43 high, which marked the end of wave 1 or A.
Short term I'm looking for a break below 100.17 to end the five wave decline in wave c of 2 or B.
The ideal ending point for wave 2 or B is in the 99.12 - 99.72 area, but just one tick below 100.17 will fulfil the demands for this wave c down.
A break back above 100.96 should pose a low risk buying opportunity with a stop just 1 pip below the low before the break back above 100.96.

 CHF/JPY - The picture here is the same as for EUR/JPY. The big count is different, but here too we are in a correction since the 92.40 high and just need one last low below 83.54 to fulfil all demands for wave c down from 89.88.
The ideal target for this last decline is in the 82.52 - 82.75 area.
Here the low risk buying point is a break above 84.04 with a stop just 1 pip below the low before the break of 84.04.

 Crude Oil - Should be very close to it's minor wave iii low setting the stages for a minor correction towards the 96.50 - 97.00 area, but we should see much more downside later on.

Facebook.com (FB) - I don't do much in single stocks, but found it interesting to look at Facebook from it's IPO. As can be seen we have seen a clear five wave decline from the 45 high, which warns that we shall see more downside after a correction towards the 36.66 - 38.00 area.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; The VIX and DJI

 EUR/USD - The correction since the 1.2640 low is still ongoing and we could see a test of 1.2852, before green wave iv is done a the next decline in green wave v sets in for a decline towards 1.2855.

 USD/JPY - Is set to break above critical resistance at 79.45 and a close above here will be the first indication that we have seen a bottom at 78.96. However we need a break above 80.55 to confirm the bottom and that a new impulsive wave 3 rally is under way.

 VIX Index - Closed inside the Bollinger Band, which indicates that a correction towards support near 20.00 is under way, however after the minor correction a new rally above 24.44 should be seen towards at least 26.86 and more likely 30.91.

Dow Jones Industrial - Wave 1 or A ended at 12.337 and we should now see a correction in wave 2 or B towards the 12,837 - 13,049 area before the next decline in wave 3 or C down sets in.

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD and Crude oil

 EUR/USD - We have seen the expected correction back to the top of the correction-area I mentioned on Friday. This should be correction enough to challenge the downside again, this time for a break below 1.2640 towards 1.2588 in green wave v and blue wave iii.

 USD/JPY - Odds favor that wave 2 ended at 78.96, just above the ideal target at 78.86. However we need a break above 79.45 to get the first good indication that the bottom is in place, while a break above 80.55 confirms the bottom and that a new impulsive rally have begun.

 AUD/USD - It have been some time since i have last talked about the Aussie dollar (See the post here http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/04/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurusd-usdjpy_24.html). However my count hasn't change only that we are in the later part of wave iii and soon should see support at 0.9653 tested on the way to the ideal target for wave iii at near 0.9445.
Short term resistance at 0.9868 should ideal protect the downside, we must accept a move towards 0.9963 before down.

Crude Oil - Is just about to end wave iii down from 110.55 at 90.44, from where a correction towards 94.16 and maybe even 96.84 should be seen before wave v take us down below 90.44 for a decline to at least 85.39.
Longer term a much bigger decline is expected.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY and Natural Gas

 EUR/USD - Green wave iii ended at 1.2640 and we are currently seen green wave iv, which should correct a minor part of green wave iii and most likely will end in the 1.2750 - 1.2800 area, before green wave v takes us below important support near 1.2625, but remember that, when green wave v is done it only marks blue wave iii and in the bigger picture we have much more downside to cover.

 USD/JPY - My call for the x-wave to have ended at 80.55 turned out to be very timely. We should now be in the final part of the correction that began at 84.17 and the ideal target-area is between 78.33 - 78.86. I do think that 78.86 makes a more likely target than 78.33, but time will show.
The the bottom is finally in place and new impulsive rally above 84.17 should be seen.

Natural Gas - The correction from 2.51 only became a very shallow correction and the next impulsive rally to at least 2.99 and more likely 3.39 is now under way.
In the bigger picture we have seen a major bottom at 1.90 and should recover much more upside in the coming weeks/month. The first real resistance in my view is seen near 4.35.