Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; VIX-Index; DJI and Crude oil

EUR/USD - The last couple of days price-action is clearly corrective, therefore we should see at least a new move higher towards 133.90, producing a possible false break above 133.85, but we will still need a break below support at 132.85 to confirm this outcome.
As the decline from 133.85 to 132.85 has been corrective we could see a move through 133.90, which would call for a continuation higher towards 134.85 and possibly even into the 137-138 area.

USD/JPY - Withe the break below 81.86 we can conclude that wave 3 ended at 84.17 and that we are now in wave 4, which ideally should take us down to the 80.85 - 81.05 area, with a slight possibility of a decline to 80.55 before we should be ready for the next leg higher (wave 5) towards the 85.00 - 85.35 target-area.

VIX Index - Still nothing new here. We are fighting with the mid-line and hasn't been able to close above it yet, which keeps us orientated towards the downside. However we have seen a clear loss of downside momentum these last couple of days, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a more definitive challenge of resistance at 17.65 soon and possibly a move higher towards strong resistance in the 19.50 - 20.00 area.

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Tested the pink dotted line yesterday. This was the fifth test of this support-line an emphasis its important. If we break below this line we should soon see a test of strong support at 12,735. However that could easily be the beginning of a sideways consolidation.

Crude Oil - Is close to invalidating the inverse S/H/S bottom. A clear break below 101.15 will truly weaken the formation and a break below 95.44 will for sure invalidate it all together and call for powerful decline towards support near 88.00.

Any break back above 108.25 will revitalise the upside pressure and call for a move higher towards 114.80 as next important resistance.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; AUD/TRY; NZD/TRY; SSEC; CRB-Index and Copper

EUR/USD - First lets be clear about the overall trend here, which is clearly down. The question is whether we will see a minor top in the 133.85 - 133.90 area or we need to challenge resistance near 134.85 again and maybe even the 137-138 resistance area.
The decline from 133.85 yesterday has not at all been impressive and we need a clear break below 132.85 to weaken the upside pressure, but only a break below 131.90 confirms the top for a new decline towards the neckline support near 130.00

EUR/JPY - We should see downside pressure build considerably in the coming days. I'm still looking for a decline into the 105.90 - 106.15 support-area, before the next possibility for a new rally can be expected.

AUD/TRY - Downside pressure is mounting and first support near 187 should soon be under fire, but this should just be a minor hurdle on the way down to more serious support near 172.00.

As I said yesterday if you want to short AUD doing it against TRY is the absolute best bet at this point.

NZD/TRY - The picture is the same as above. Downside pressure is mounting and we should soon see support at 145.00 be broken calling for a continuation down towards 142 and 137.60 and a break of the later (Double top neckline) will open up the downside for real.

Shanghai Composite - Downside pressure is really gaining strength and we should soon see the end of wave 1 low at 2.132 come under pressure. Longer term I looking for much lower levels here, but I will cover that more in details as we close in on the 2.132 low.

The CRB Index - Here too downside pressure seems to be mounting. We need a break below 309 to really get things going, but that should just be a question of time in my view. A break below 309 will open up for a new test of strong support near 293.60, but a clear break below here will deal the commodity currencies a serious blow.

Dr. Copper - Is a bullish triangle under development? It could be and if it's the case we will see one more rally towards the former minor S/H/S neckline support (now resistance) near 403.75.

However I'm not at all convinced that this is a triangle and I would look very carefully for a break below 376.00 as a first warning, that this is something entirely different, but only a break below 370.95 invalidates the triangle concept and call for a decline towards the neckline support near 311.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on USD/CHF; EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; CAD/USD; CAD/TRY; AUD/USD; AUD/TRY; NZD/USD and NZD/TRY

USD/CHF (Monthly) - When analysing a currency pair you will always start to look at the long term chart to determine the long term trend, which is clearly down. The next point is to see if you have made anything out of the extraordinary and in the case with USD/CHF I think the false break below the long term trend-line support is an extraordinary event. This is a classic signal, that the major trend might be changing.
If you are into the Elliott Wave Principle as I am, you will want to see if there are some workable relationships working in your favor, and in the case here we can see that wave [C] was almost 61.8% of wave [A], which is a normal turning point.
You will also want to see if you have any divergence on you indicator, which is also the case here. The low set at 70.85 was not confirmed by a low on the RSI (I could have chosen the MACD indicator too).
So all in all we do have some evidence that a long term bottom could be in place. So the next step is to close in on the later part of the price-action

USD/CHF (weekly) - Here we clearly can see the false break below the long term trend-line support (red). Again we have the divergence on the RSI confirming that the 70.85 low could me a very important long term low. Taking a step even closer.

USD/CHF (Daily) - We will now focus on the price-action since the 70.85 low and the first thing we should notice is, that we have seen a powerful rally counter to the long term trend, which could be the first part of a new long term uptrend.

Again if you are into the EWP you will want to see a five wave rally and preferable with wave iii the longest (It does not have to be that way, but more often than not it's the case). We have seen a five wave rally (see my count above) which raises the odd that 70.85 was an important low. Now we want to see a three wave correction. Depending on where wave v ended we might have ended this correction with an expanded flat correction and is ready to the next rally higher. If this is the case we should soon see minor resistance at 91.80 be broken.

However if we only have seen wave a and b of a simple zig-zag correction we soon will see support at 89.25 break for a continuation down towards 85.65 - 86.35 area before we can expect wave 2 to be done with.

EUR/USD - Here we might have seen a top at 133.85 yesterday, but to confirm this we need a break below 132.85 soon and more importantly we need a break below support at 131.90 for a move towards possible neckline support near 130.10.

However a break above the 133.85 - 133.90 will invalidate this scenario and call for a continuation higher towards 134.65 and possibly even into the 137 - 138 area, before we can expect renewed downside pressure.

EUR/JPY - It seems as wave b is finished now and we should see downside pressure building for a break below 109.88 for a move closer to my target-area in the 105.90 - 106.15 zone.

USD/CAD - Again seem ready to challenge important resistance at 110.50 and a break above here we clearly ease the downside pressure for a rally higher towards 102 and more likely the neckline resistance near 106.

Only a break below 98.42 will invalidate this picture and call for a deeper decline towards 96.90 - 97.20 area.

CAD/TRY - If you don't like the USD/CAD cross playing the CAD/TRY might be the way to go. A big top-formation might be building and you have a very nice forward premium working for you.

I'm still looking for a test of the neck-line support near 176.00 and a break below here will open up the downside for a decline towards the 162 - 163 area.

AUD/USD - Here we should soon see a new test of the trend-line support in the 103.30 - 103.60 area, but we need a break below here to really open up the downside potential.

AUD/TRY - Again if you don't like the AUD/USD cross (and there could be a lot of reasons for that and one very important one is the interest differential working against you) then AUD/TRY might be the cross for you. We have broken below support 187.25 which has opened up the downside and we should be looking for a decline towards 182 at least but more likely a decline towards the 175-176 area.

NZD/USD - After back-testing the broken trend-line support (now acting as resistance) we should soon see a test of important support at 80.55 an a break here would open up the downside for a decline towards the 78.35 - 78.80 area.

Any break back above 82.25 would delay the downside pressure and call for a new test of the broken trend-line.

NZD/TRY - Again if you don't like playing the NZD/USD cross because of many of the same reasons as mentioned for AUD/USD, then play this cross might be the answer. Again the interest differential will work in your favor and a break below 145 will call for a decline towards at least 137.60 but possibly even lower.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

EUR/USD - I'm somewhat surprised that we managed to break above resistance at 133.22, but we are looking at a new pretty strong resistance here near 133.80, which will have to protect the upside otherwise we are looking at a rally all the way back towards the 137-138 area.
Resistance near 133.80is a triple resistance, but we need a break below 132.80 and more important 131.90 to ease the upside pressure and have a new test of neckline support near 130.10.

EUR/JPY - I think wave b of wave 2 is done or very close to being done with and we now need a break below support in the 109.80 - 109.90 area to confirm the ending of the b-wave and that wave c-down towards 105.90 - 106.10 have begun.

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Interesting Fibonacci relationships

During the weekend I was playing around with some different ideas I had for the long term view of the Dow Jones Industrial Index and stumbled over some very interesting Fibonacci relationships.

Beginning at the 1932 bottom the first important high was in 1937 (1932 + Fibo 5), but I found some much more interesting relationships:

1932 + 34 years = 1966 (important top)
1966 + 21 years = 1987 (less important top)
1987 + 13 years = 2000 (important top for Nasdaq)
2000 + 8 years = 2008 (until now the all time high)
2008 + 5 years = 2013 possibly new all time high near 16.450 and wave "D" of the broadening top formation calling for a big decline into 2015 - 2016 with a possible very important low in 2016.

I tried to find a similar relationship with the bottoms, but I haven't found anything as nice a the relationships above, but if I find something I of cause will let you know about my findings.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

EUR/USD - The expended flat correction we have seen from 130.77 could be over with the slight false break above 132.91 (the new high was 132.93), which also means that my target-area between 132.92 - 133.22 was tested. However we need a break below 132.19 and more importantly 131.33 to confirm, that we have seen the top. As long as 132.19 isn't broken to the downside we could see one last rally deeper into my correction target-area between 132.92 - 133.22 for wave c of 2.

GBP/USD - Is testing strong overhead resistance near 159.25. I still look for this resistance to hold for a break below 157.70 and more importantly 156.00 which will confirm the next leg low to below 152.33. Only an unexpected break above 159.25 will delay the downside for a push towards 163.00 before down.

Longer term I'm still looking for much lower levels.

USD/JPY - Held above important support at 81.86 (Overlap area for blue wave i and wave iv), this keeps my preferred count well and alive. Whats need now is a break above 82.94 to confirm the next rally higher in blue wave v and red wave iii.

Only a direct break below 81.86 confirms a deeper correction towards the low 80 area before the next push higher.

EUR/JPY - Is in wave b of 2. I still see the possibility for a move towards 110 and maybe even to my target-area between 110.30 - 110.50 before the last leg lower in wave c of 2 towards 105.92.

Contrarian Cover Indicator

Is this a Contrarian Cover Indicator? I don't know, but The Atlantic calling Ben Bernanke "THE HERO" could well be a warning that FED is about to fail in a big way.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; EUR/JPY; USD/CAD; The VIX Index; DJI and SSEC

EUR/USD - We saw a clear break below 131.71 yesterday, but the decline from 132.84 has clearly been in three waves and the first and second declines where almost equal in length, which always raises the danger-flag. A break above minor resistance at 132.54 will confirm that the decline was only in three waves an classify the decline as an "X" wave calling for a new rally into the 132.92 - 133.22 area before the next downside pressure should be expected.
Only a direct break below 131.71 and more importantly 131.33 will invalidate any further upside progress and turn us down hard towards the low 130 area.

USD/JPY - I have present my favorite count above, which is calling for the next rise towards 84.50 to be under way. Only a break below support at 81.86 will invalidate this call (overlap between wave i and iv, which is not allowed). A break below 81.86 will be proof that wave 3 ended at 84.17 and wave 4 have begun for a correction back towards the 80.06 - 81.06 area before one last rally higher towards the 85.65 area.

EUR/JPY - Ended the first leg of the correction down yesterday with the test of 108.46. We should now see a "B" wave rise into the 110.30 - 110.50 area before the next decline lower in wave "C" to near 105.91.

USD/CAD - The call yesterday for a challenge of the resistance-line near 99.70 was well founded and the break above this resistance has clearly relived a lot of the downside pressure, but we now need a break above 100.50 to confirm that this isn't just a false break and a new decline is under way. A break above 100.50 will call for a new rally towards the 104.90 - 105.90 resistance area.

VIX Index - almost tested the mid-line resistance yesterday, but only a close above here will call for a test of strong resistance near 20.25.

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Is about to test the minor trend-line support back from the 10.404 low in October 2011. A break below this line will ease some of the upside pressure, but only a break below 12.735 will call for a top. Until then the uptrend stays firm for a possible move into the 13.500 area.

Shanghai Composite - Has clearly broken to the downside and we should see pressure building in the coming days/weeks for a decline below 2,145 in wave 3 of [C].

Major trend reversal in NZD/TRY?

You know TRY is one of my favorite currencies at the moment. I have kept a close eye on this cross lately and it now seems, that we have a clear failure break above the mid-2011 top at 148.35 (on a close basis). We saw a daily close high at 148.93 on March 19 and I now looking for a break below 145.00 to confirm the failure break and to confirm a much deeper decline closer to the channel support-line, which currently is near 132.00.
The channel mid-line near 142 should offer some support, but I'm pretty sure that it to will break for the continuation down to the channel support-line.

By the way, expect downside-pressure beginning to build on the other crosses like AUD/TRY; EUR/TRY and CAD/TRY (see my last post in regards to EUR/TRY and CAD/TRY here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/03/technical-analysis-on-eurtry-and-cadtry.html)

EUR/TRY move a little higher that I expected, but the overall bearish picture is intact and the current levels does offer a nice shorting opportunity.

CAD/TRY was almost spot on with a top at 184.22, only slight above my target-area.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; USD/CAD; AUD/USD; NZD/USD and Apple

EUR/USD - We most likely saw a minor impulsive decline from 132.82 to 131.77 as minor wave i and are now towards the end of minor wave ii. I will expect to see minor wave ii end in the 132.43 - 132.56 area. A break below 132.12 will confirm that minor wave ii is done and a new challenge of important support at 131.71 should be seen. Any break below 131.71 will confirm that the entire rally in wave 2 from 130.02 is over and that downside pressure will build.

EUR/JPY - Topped out just below strong resistance at 111.52 (the high set was 111.43). The decline from 111.43 to 109.86 does look impulsive, but we need a break below 109.15 to confirm a deeper decline towards the 105.62 - 105.92 area as the first corrective target.

USD/CAD - Seems to be ready to challenge the resistance-line near 99.70 and a break here will ease the downside pressure and call for a push towards the neck-line resistance near 106.00.

However resistance at 99.70 is the first key to unlock the rally.

AUD/USD - Is close to test important support at 103.20 a break below this support will enforce the downside pressure and call for a continuation deeper towards 96.60 area.

NZD/USD - Has already broke below it's support-line and is leading the way down. A break below support at 80.56 will open for a deeper decline towards 78.35 and more likely to as deep as the 74.50 - 75.00 area.

Apple - Just keeps heading higher, but if my counts above is correct we most likely is close to a top, which will call for a correction to as deep as the 490 - 500 area, before one last push higher towards 625. However I think it would be prudent to protect one self with a stop just below 575 and take profit on at least half of your position. Keep stop on the rest just below 486 if my count turns out to be wrong and we have already seen the top of wave 5 of [3] at 609.65.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; The VIX Index; DJI and NYSE Comp.

EUR/USD - Support at 131.71 held yesterday for a move into my target-zone between 132.72 - 132.92. With the target-zone hit I do expect the downside pressure starting to build. I'm now looking for support at 132.13 and more importantly 131.71 to break for the next decline towards the strong support near 126.00.

EUR/JPY - Has continued higher towards strong resistance near 111.52. If we will be able to reach or even overshoot resistance at 111.52 slightly remains to be seen, but you will want to play it safely in these lofty areas, as we have a very clear five wave rally of the 97.02 low and therefor we must expect wave 2 down to set in at any time now.

VIX Index - We are closing in on the mid-band line as the close outside the lower Bollinger Band was forewarning. However only a break above resistance near 20.50 will call for much higher levels.

Dow Jones Industrial Index - The slow rise higher continues with only small declines and important support at 12,735 seems pretty far away and only a break below here will relieve the upside pressure. The next strong resistance area is found in the 13,530 - 13,550 area.

NYSE Composite - Have tested the resistance line from the 2007 high through the May - 2011 high at 8,327. The resistance line held firm, but we need a break below 7,898 to relieve the upside pressure. However one of the two will have to give away soon.