Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave 5 in motion for a rally towards 182.95

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave 5 in motion for a rally towards 182.95

It' has been a while since I last reviewed EUR/JPY. On April 18 this year EUR/JPY was testing resistance at 164.17, which at that time I thought was the top of wave 3. However, it quickly turned out that it wasn't the top of wave 3, but rather the top of wave iii of 3 and more upside should be expected towards the next resistance near 175.66 which marked the 261.8% extension target of wave 1. 

Wave 3 peaked at 171.79 but the the B-wave of the following wave 4 tested the expected 175.66 target before a deep wave C dipped to test the low of wave iv of 4 and the 38.2% corrective target of wave 3 at 153.56. 

Wave 5 is now in motion and should see a rally towards resistance at 182.95 before completing the rally out of 2020 low at 114.20. 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee - Next stop USD 300

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee - Next stop USD 300

Coffee completed a large triangle consolidation as wave Y of 4 in January 2023 and has since moved higher to test and break the triangle resistance-line near 250 and is now headed towards the next resistance at 300. 

If this resistance is broken and I expect it will be broken then the next long-term stop is see at 576. We will see the former tops at 318 and 340 give some temporary protection, but they shouldn't anything other that temporary stops before the match higher towards 576 is seen. 

That said, it's important what's gone happen near resistance at 300. If coffee fails to clear this resistance and starts to move lower again, we could see the the consolidation from 1977 continue for another 22 years as the final corrective wave "Z" unfolds. This is not my preferred count, but an option we can't exclude at this point in time. 

The job is to find the possible future path for coffee, which for now is up towards 300 and then let's evaluate the most likely future price-action for coffee. 

 

Elliott wave count for Crude Oil - Bottom could be in place

CRUDE OIL 

Elliott wave count for Crude Oil - Bottom could be in place

After a 2½ year decline from the March 2022 peak at 130.50 crude could finally could have found a bottom a new strong rally could in front of us. 

If a bottom is in place, we should see support at 63.64 protect the downside for a above minor resistance at 73.82 and more importantly a break above resistance at 77.60 that will confirm that wave 2 have completed and a strong wave 3 is in front of us for a really above 130.50

If, however support at 63.64 is broken, then the corrective decline from 130.50 remains in place for a decline towards 45.09 before the corrective decline from 130.50 completes and a new impulsive rally should be expected.   

Silver shows a giant cup with handle formation

 

Silver - Giant Cup With Handle

I have been tracking this giant cup with handle formation for years now. There is still a long way to this formation is triggered, which it will be if silver breaks above resistance at USD 48. Such a break will call for a continuation higher to around USD 100 pr. ounce silver. 

If, however you look closely on the smaller formation build from ultimo 2012 and till today you will see a smaller cup with handle formation, that just has been triggered with the break above resistance at USD 28 and this formation calls for a rally higher to test the long term resistance at USD 48. 

I expect that silver after some sideways consolidation between USD 28-30 will start rallying higher towards USD 35 as the next resistance and ultimately higher to test the long-term resistance at 48. 

 

US 10Y - US 2Y Yields About To Cross Back Over The Zero-line - Recession Coming

US 10Y - US 2Y Yield

Every time we have seen an inverted yield-curve, that turns back above the zero-line the US economy enters into recession. We saw a reversion from the inverted yield-curve back to normal in 1989; 2001 and 2007. Every time a recession followed in the US. 

The US 10Y - US 2Y yield-curve has been inverted since July 2022 which is the longest period ever and it will likely trigger a serious economic recession in the US once the yield-curve break back above the zero-line. 

In physics we have the law of action and reaction. Newton's third law states that "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction". As the central banks has printed money as there was no tomorrow, creating enormous wealth. We should expect and equal strong force destroying the wealth created.

I'm not saying the recession has begun or hard times for the economy has begun, as I expect the central banks will do almost everything in the power to obstruct economic hard times. What I'm saying is that the US is facing strong head-winds in the months to come and eventually will enter into a strong recession down the road.

Don't be on the wrong side of the coming downturn.      

End of the Petro-Dollar

 

I missed this news story at first, but it caught my eye yesterday. I think it's interesting that the news more or less has ignored this story, because it's huge. 

Of cause some of the oil from Saudi Arabia still will be sold in US-dollars, but it might only be a minor part of the oil. The rest will be sold in EUR, YEN and Chinese RMB etc. 

As the article says, it has been one of the corner stones in the US economy and this corner stone has now been removed. It doesn't necessary make the card-house fall, but it makes it much more vulnerable. 

Over the last few years, we have also seen a decline in other major countries buying Treasury bonds. A role that the Federal Reserve has taken over instead, but it does weaken the US-dollars position as the main reserve currency. Losing the position as the main reserve currency will weaken the US in the long run and heightens the risk of global tensions in the years to come. 

I'm not convinced, that the US will be willing to give up its status as the global power number one without some kind of fight. 

I do expect that the coming years could bring about a major upheaval, that will shift the status of the US as the largest global power to someone else, but it will not be a smooth transition, that's for sure.   

Elliott Wave Analysis of the 10Y US Treasury Yield - Wave C down to 3.23% is in motion

Elliott Wave Analysis of the 10Y US Treasury Yield - Wave C down to 3.23% is in motion

In my April 15 post I called for a top near 4.59% to complete wave B and then a decline in wave C towards strong support near 3.23%.

We have seen wave B peak at 4.74% and wave C is now in motion with the 3.23% target as the goal. 

Resistance is now seen at 4.51%, which is expected to protect the upside as wave C make its way lower towards the 3.23% target. 

The decline in rates will likely spark a money-bowering frenzy and finally push the economy over the brink and start a 4 year economic decline. I expect this economic decline to happen in the early part of 2025.