EUR/USD - Monthly
EUR/USD - Weekly
EUR/USD - Daily
EUR/USD - 4 Hourly
Long-term likely in place at 1.0339
It has been a while since I last update this blog. I intend to update it more regular going forward.
I was originally looking for the decline in EUR/USD from 1.6038 to move below par (see the previous long-term view here), but the long-term cycles didn't allow this to happen even though, we were pretty close, with the low seen at 1.0339 in early January 2017.
With the low in early January at 1.0339 wave 5 did make a new low for the impulsive decline from 1.4940 and thereby fulfilled all requirements for the EWP.
If wave (C) completed at 1.0339, then we can look for a new uptrend into January 2025 according to long-term cycle analysis.
Looking at the 4-hourly and the daily time-frames the rally from 1.0339 does look impulsive confirming that a long-term low could be in place.
I would like to see the rally from 1.0339 break above resistance at 1.2042 as that will break above the low of wave 1 and a overlap between wave 1 and 4 is not allowed under the EWP unless an ending diagonal is developing. The decline from 1.4940 does not fit the profile of an ending diagonal.
Short-term, I'm looking for a correction in wave iv to at least the 23.6% corrective target of wave iii at 1.1474, but a deeper correction in wave iv closer to the 38.2% corrective target at 1.1286 can't be excluded, before a turn higher in wave v to above 1.1777 and ideally to just above 1.2042 to complete wave v and 1. Setting the stage for a correction in wave 2.