Thursday, October 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Aanalysis of AUD/USD - The failure to sustain the break above 0.7710 is suspicious

AUD/USD - 4 Hourly

AUD/USD - 15 Minutes 

AUD/USD - The failure to sustain the break above 0.7710 is suspicious

Well this cross has tested our patience in every way possible the last couple of months. Yesterday's break above 0.7710 was no exception. The break indicated that more upside towards 0.8138 should be expected, but the rally only made it to 0.7729 before turning strongly lower. This is not the way a breakout should behave and looks very suspicious = Failure break.
Zooming in on the rally from 0.7502 it's clear in three waves only. wave c = wave a in length, which is the most common relationship within a zig.zag correction. Looking at Red wave [v] it took 66 5-minute periods to rally from 0.7659 to 0.7729, but the decline from 0.7729 back to 0.7659 has only taken 1/3 of that time or 22 5-minute periods. Strongly indicating that the rally from 0.7502 to 0.7729 only was corrective and the real trend still points lower.
That said, we still need prof that it's right to expect more downside pressure. a clear break below support at 0.7659 and more importantly a break below support at 0.7577 will confirm a retest of the 0.7507 low and likely a clear break below support at 0.7502 this time.
Only a break above 0.7729 will indicate that the larger corrective rally from 0.6825 is incomplete and call for the alternate count that sees a rally closer to 0.8138 before wave [4] finally is complete and wave [5] lower to 0.6000 finally takes over. 
This situation both calls for calls for flexibility. Yes we saw a break above 0.7710, but the failure to follow-through on that break indicates that it wasn't nothing more than a failure break. 

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