Sunday, September 4, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY - Foreseeing the possible wave ii low on August 16

On August 16 - 2016 I made a post under the headline: "GBP/JPY - Make it or Break it point at 128.75" to the members of my service - You can see a copy of the post below

The two charts below, is the actual charts in that post from August 16 - 2016

The first chart represented my preferred count, which was calling for a wave ii low at or just above 128.75, while the second chart was the alternate count in the case that a break below 128.75 was seen. 

Under the Elliott Wave Principle second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, which in this case meant that wave ii was allowed to hit 128.75, but couldn't break 128.75 with a single pip. Well, 17 days later the result is clear. Important support at 128.75 held as the low was seen at 129.11 and prices are now 6.8% above the price of the time I wrote the post. 

I think this underlines the strength and advantages of the Elliott Wave Principle. We knew at exactly what point the count would be wrong and also could come up with an alternative strategy, if the invalidation point at 128.75 was broken. 

So what can be expected going forward? As can be seen from the 4 hourly chart above, the rally of the 129.11 low started with a series of waves one's and two's and now a series of wave three's are unfolding. The Fibonacci measurements following the series of waves one's and two's has given a target cluster between 139.73 - 140.16, but will this be the top? I don't expect that to be the case. More upside to or just above 143.24 will be expected after a short term hesitation at the target cluster. 

Once the former top at 143.24 has been reached, I would expect a correction towards 136.30 before the next impulsive rally breaking clearly above 143.24 for a rally to at least 152.61 and possibly even higher. Even-though I will be looking for some kind of correction near 143.24, I will have to add that we are in a wave three rally and corrections/consolidation during third waves tend to be small or even sub-normal. So we might just blast directly through resistance at 143.24 for the rally higher to 152.61. 

At this point a rally to 152.61 may seem a bit extreme, but if we look at the longer term picture (see the weekly chart below), then my count shows that we completed wave [2] or [B] at 128.75 and that a new long term impulsive rally towards at least 207.85 now is unfolding.  

If you like the above post and want to enjoy the insight and the opportunities that follows, then you should consider joining my service Click at the link and see, what I have to offer. 


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